Saturday, January 23, 2010

Predicting the 2010 NBA Playoffs

Equipped with my ratings and NBA 2K's sim engine, I ran a series of playoff simulations using current NBA standings.

I ran 10 playoff simulations using my roster. Here are the results for each round.


FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers 9-1
Thunder 1-9

Blazers 4-6
Spurs 6-4

Mavericks 5-5
Suns 5-5

Nuggets 7-3
Jazz 3-7


Lakers dominated, but the rest of the series were competitive. Blazers were the only higher seeded team to lose more often (given their depleted lineup, not a surprise).


FIRST ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 8-2
Bulls 2-8

Magic 9-1
Bobcats 1-9

Hawks 8-2
Heat 2-8

Celtics 9-1
Raptors 1-9

There won't be much drama in the eastern conference come April. The top 4 teams are near locks to advance as the competition isn't close.


SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers 9-0
Thunder 0-1
Blazers 0-4
Spurs 1-5

Mavericks 1-4
Suns 1-4
Nuggets 5-2
Jazz 3-0

The Blazers and Spurs have no chance against the Lakers (Spurs' one win coming to the Thunder).

Interestingly, each time Utah advanced, they moved onto the conference Finals. The 2/7 bracket winner beat out the 3/6 bracket 8/10 times.

SECOND ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 7-1
Bulls 0-2
Magic 3-6
Bobcats 0-1

Hawks 3-5
Heat 0-2
Celtics 7-2
Raptors 0-1

While not as dominant as LA, Cleveland owned the Magic 6-1 in round 2. They look to be a lock for the Conference Finals, as this season's Magic team is not as good as it's 09 predecessor.

CONFERENCE WEST
Lakers 8-1
Spurs 0-1
Mavericks 0-1
Suns 0-1
Nuggets 2-3
Jazz 0-3

Lakers dominated the field, as the Nuggets were the only team able to beat them.

CONFREENCE EAST
Cavaliers 7-0
Magic 1-2
Hawks 0-3
Celtics 2-5

The Cavs could not be stopped whenever they made it this far. That's probably how it will work out in real life too.


FINALS
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-3)
Lakers over Magic (4-3)
Lakers over Celtics (4-3)
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-2)
Cavaliers over Lakers (4-3)
Cavaliers over Lakers (4-3)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-2)
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-1)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-2)
Celtics over Lakers (4-2)

Lakers were 5-3 in the Finals
Cavaliers were 4-3 in the Finals
Celtics were 1-1
Nuggets were 0-2
Magic were 0-1

Lakers were 3-2 against the Cavaliers, 1-1 against the Celtics, 1-0 against the Magic
Cavaliers were 2-3 against the Lakers, 2-0 agsinst the Nuggets

According to my simulations, it's going to be Kobe and the Lakers against LeBron and the Cavaliers come June! The Lakers have the edge here, but in the regular season they were just swept by the Cavaliers (of course, Utah did this to Chicago and it didn't exactly help). Either way, we should be in store for a very memorable NBA Finals.


But wait, there's more!

Here are the results I got running 10 simulations with 2K's roster.

FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers 3-7
Thunder 7-3


Blazers 3-7
Spurs 7-3

Mavericks 7-3
Suns 3-7

Nuggets 4-6
Jazz 6-4


The Lakers got owned by the 8th seed Thunder. The Nuggets got owned by the 7th seed Jazz. This is as bad as a start can get for 2K.


FIRST ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 9-1
Bulls 1-9

Magic 9-1
Bobcats 1-9

Hawks 6-4
Heat 4-6

Celtics 6-4
Raptors 4-6

The Cavs and Magic still dominated their matchup, but Hawks/Heat and Celtics/Raptors were much closer than they were in my simulations.


SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers 2-1
Thunder 3-4
Blazers 2-2
Spurs 3-3

Mavericks 4-3
Suns 2-1
Nuggets 2-2
Jazz 3-3

That's right, the Lakers got through the 2nd round 2/10 times using 2K's rosters.

SECOND ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 8-1
Bulls 0-1
Magic 2-7
Bobcats 0-1
Hawks 5-1
Heat 2-2
Celtics 2-4
Raptors 1-3

The Cavs were just as was dominant as my roster, but the Hawks put the wrecking ball on the Celtics in 2K's roster.

CONFERENCE WEST
Lakers 2-0
Thunder 2-1
Blazers 0-1
Spurs 2-2
Mavericks 1-3
Suns 1-1
Nuggets 1-1
Jazz 1-1

There were 7 different NBA Finalists using 2K's roster. Apparently they don't think the Lakers will run away with it come playoff time.

CONFERENCE EAST
Cavaliers 6-2
Magic 0-2
Hawks 2-3
Heat 1-1
Celtics 0-2
Raptors 1-0

The Cavs actually lost to the Raptors and Heat in the Conference Finals. They still went more often than any other team, but I do think it's funny that the Heat and Raptors made it while the Magic and Celtics never did.

FINALS
Suns over Cavaliers (4-3)
Mavericks over Cavaliers (4-1)
Hawks over Jazz (4-2)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-0)
Lakers over Raptors (4-0)
Spurs over Cavaliers (4-2)
Cavaliers over Thunder (4-3)
Cavaliers over Spurs (4-1)
Thunder over Heat (4-3)
Lakers over Hawks (4-3)

Cavaliers were 3-3 in the NBA Finals and never once faced the Lakers.
Lakers were 2-0 in the NBA Finals (yet they were apparently no match for the Thunder)
Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, Thunder, and Hawks all won championships. Celtics, Magic, and Nuggets never even made it to the Finals using 2K's roster.

The differences between my roster and 2K's could not be any bigger. The only thing that would have made it worse for 2K is if the Bulls smacked the Cavs up.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Team Ratings - Rashidi vs 2K

EAST OVERALL (Rashidi)
83 Cavaliers
83 Hawks
82 Celtics
80 Magic
80 Heat
80 Bulls
80 Sixers
78 Bobcats
77 Bucks
77 Knicks
75 Wizards
74 Pistons
73 Raptors
73 Nets
72 Pacers

EAST OVERALL (2K Insider)
85 Hawks
83 Heat
81 Cavaliers
80 Sixers
79 Bulls
77 Knicks
77 Wizards - this is a Wizard team minus Arenas, mind you.
76 Celtics - Celtics w/o Garnett are worse than Arenas-less Wizards?
76 Bobcats
74 Nets - Aren't they the league's worst team?
73 Magic - 2K decided to injure Vince Carter and remove him from the lineup. Vince Carter played tonight.
73 Pistons
72 Raptors
69 Pacers
67 Bucks

EAST SRS RATINGS (Real Life)
5.97 Cavaliers (Rashidi 1st - Insider 3rd)
5.38 Celtics (Rashidi 3rd - Insider 8th)
5.35 Hawks (Rashidi 2nd - Insider 1st)
4.18 Magic (Rashidi 4th - Insider 11th)
1.12 Bobcats (Rashidi 8th - Insider 9th)
0.93 Heat (Rashidi 5th - Insider 2nd)
-0.95 Raptors (Rashidi 13th - Insider 13th)
-1.58 Bucks (Rashidi 9th - Insider 15th)
-1.85 Knicks (Rashidi 10th - Insider 6th)
-3.16 Bulls (Rashidi 6th - Insider 5th)
-3.27 Sixers (Rashidi 7th - Insider 4th)
-3.68 Wizards (Rashidi 11th - Insider 7th)
-4.53 Pistons (Rashidi 12th - Insider 12th)
-5.94 Pacers (Rashidi 15th - Insider 14th)
-11.37 Nets (Rashidi 14th - Insider 10th)

As a resident New Yorker, I think it's safe to say my grasp on the east coast is much firmer than the California kid over there.


WEST OVERALL (Rashidi)
87 Lakers
85 Nuggets
83 Spurs
82 Rockets
81 Mavericks
81 Thunder
80 Jazz
79 Hornets
79 Grizzlies
77 Suns
74 Blazers
74 Clippers
73 Kings
73 Wolves
72 Warriors

WEST OVERALL (2K Insider)
90 Lakers
87 Nuggets
85 Grizzlies - ROFL
83 Spurs
83 Mavericks
82 Rockets
80 Thunder
77 Jazz
76 Suns
75 Clippers
74 Hornets
73 Blazers
73 Wolves
70 Warriors
69 Kings - Haven't we long established they aren't the worst in the league?

WEST SRS RATINGS (Real Life)
6.77 Lakers (Rashidi 1st - Insider 1st)
5.24 Spurs (Rashidi 3rd - Insider 4th)
4.49 Nuggets (Rashidi 2nd - Insider 2nd)
4.02 Jazz (Rashidi 7th - Insider 8th)
3.32 Thunder (Rashidi 6th - Insider 7th)
3.17 Blazers (Rashidi 11th - Insider 12th)
2.97 Mavericks (Rashidi 5th - Insider 5th)
2.32 Suns (Rashidi 10th - Insider 9th)
1.00 Rockets (Rashidi 4th - Insider 6th)
0.11 Grizzlies (Rashidi 9th - Insider 3rd)
-1.95 Hornets (Rashidi 8th - Insider 11th)
-2.66 Kings (Rashidi 13th - Insider 15th)
-2.72 Clippers (Rashidi 12th - Insider 10th)
-4.01 Warriors (Rashidi 15th - Insider 14th)
-9.30 Wolves (Rashidi 14th, Insider 13th)

I hold the edge over 2K Sports across the entire board with the exception of two teams - the Rockets and Hornets.

With all that said, my rosters are far from perfect (though they are much closer to it). Five things that could make them better...

1. The Blazers need some attention paid to them. I normally am on top of the Blazers every year but I've admittedly focused on other teams this year since they've been wracked with injuries. Martell Webster, Andre Miller, even Juwan Howard need boosts.

2. While I don't have Trevor Ariza all that high (76 compared to 2K's 79), it may be time to decrease him again.

3. Continue dropping the Nets. They are the worst team by far and the only team that comes close are the Wolves. The sad thing is 2K keeps boosting the Nets! Brook Lopez, Yi Jianlian, and even Jarvis Hayes all saw big jumps in recent updates. On my end, dropping Courtney Lee is probably the key.

4. Boost them Raptors up. Jarrett Jack has been playing well. Demar DeRozan is very underrated at only 64 overall (his rating in particular is what seems to drag the team down most).

5. I need to finish the Jazz. I have yet to edit Okur, Kirilenko, Korver, or Price, while Matthews is a bit underrated at 62. That would seemingly take care of them being slightly underrated.


Well, looks like I have my goals for the week!

Top 10 at each position - Rashidi vs 2K

It has been over three months since the release of NBA 2K10, and I thought it would be worth it to check the progress of both myself and the 2K Insider. Thus, I bring to you the top 10 players at each position. I'll let you guys be the judge for now, and I'll add some of my own input some time tomorrow.

POINT GUARD (Rashidi)
95 – Chris Paul
88 – Deron Williams
86 – Rajon Rondo
82 – Steve Nash
82 – Baron Davis
82 – Tony Parker
81 – Gilbert Arenas
81 - Russell Westbrook
80 – Chauncey Billups
80 - Tyreke Evans
80 – Derrick Rose

POINT GUARD (2k Sports)
95 – Chris Paul
90 – Deron Williams
86 – Rajon Rondo
85 – Gilbert Arenas
84 - Chauncey Billups
84 - Tony Parker
82 – Steve Nash
82 – Baron Davis
81 – Derrick Rose
80 - Russell Westbrook

ANALYSIS
Chris Paul is obviously the top PG in the league. He leads the league with 124 ORTG (team points per 100 possessions while on court). Deron Williams is still producing at a high level but is still the clear #2 PG in the league.

Rajon Rondo still hasn't gotten his due from many around the league - he is Chris Paul minus the jumpshot (with better defense). Like it or not, he is the main reason the Celtics are among the best teams despite all the injuries.

Steve Nash leads the league in AST% (career high 52.3) and his 123 ORTG is right there with Paul... it's unfortunate that he's the worst defensive PG on the planet. It's curious to me why 2K still has Gilbert Arenas rated so highly. Arenas might have been scoring 22 per game, but his .511 TS% shows he simply wasn't doing it efficiently (and simply does not compare to Nash's 18 ppg on .647 TS%, 2nd in the league). Toss in that Nash is obviously better at running a team, passing the ball, and that Arenas' defense is even worse after the knee surgeries...

Baron Davis will never be an efficient scorer, but at least he's not chucking it up like Arenas (.518 TS% on 14 FGA compared to Gilbert's .511 TS% on 19 FGA). He's running the team and playing excellent defense, which is why the Clippers are winning some games even without #1 pick Blake Griffin.

Tony Parker has dealt with a heel injury for much of the season. We should also be reminded that the reason Parker put up big numbers last season (22 ppg, 7 apg) was Manu Ginobli missed the majority of the season. The team also added Richard Jefferson, and the player whose lost the most shots has been Mr. Parker (17 FGA last season, 13 this year).

(more coming later...)

SHOOTING GUARD (Rashidi)
94 - Kobe Bryant
94 – Dwyane Wade
87 – Brandon Roy
85 – Joe Johnson
82 – Manu Ginobili
80 – Monta Ellis
79 – Kevin Martin
78 – Vince Carter
78 – Allen Iverson
77 – Stephen Jackson

SHOOTING GUARD (2K Sports)
97 - Kobe Bryant
94 – Dwyane Wade
89 – Joe Johnson
88 – Brandon Roy
83 – Manu Ginobili
82 – Monta Ellis
81 – Vince Carter
81 – Stephen Jackson
80 – Allen Iverson
79 - Trevor Ariza

SMALL FORWARD (Rashidi)
95 – LeBron James
87 – Carmelo Anthony
85 – Kevin Durant
84 – Danny Granger
82 – Andre Iguodala
82 – Gerald Wallace
81 – Paul Pierce
79 – Caron Butler
78 – Ron Artest
77 – Rudy Gay

SMALL FORWARD (2K Sports)
97 – LeBron James
90 – Carmelo Anthony
86 – Kevin Durant
85 – Andre Iguodala
84 – Paul Pierce
83 – Danny Granger
82 – Gerald Wallace
82 – Caron Butler
80 – Ron Artest
80 – Rudy Gay

POWER FORWARD (Rashidi)
87 – Chris Bosh
86 – Pau Gasol
85 – Kevin Garnett
83 – Dirk Nowitzki
83 – Carlos Boozer
83 – Josh Smith
81 – Amare Stoudemire
78 – Zach Randolph
78 – Antawn Jamison
78 – LaMarcus Aldridge

POWER FORWARD (2K Sports)
89 - Tim Duncan
87 – Chris Bosh
87 – Pau Gasol
87 – Kevin Garnett
85 – Carlos Boozer
84 – Dirk Nowitzki
83 – Amare Stoudemire
82 – Josh Smith
80 – Zach Randolph
78 - Lamar Odom

CENTER (Rashidi)
91 – Tim Duncan
88 – Dwight Howard
85 – Yao Ming
81 – Greg Oden
80 – David Lee
80 – Al Jefferson
80 - Andrew Bogut
80 – Al Horford
80 – Emeka Okafor
79 – Brook Lopez

CENTER (2K Sports)
88 – Dwight Howard
83 – Yao Ming
81 – Al Jefferson
81 – Brook Lopez
80 – Emeka Okafor
79 – Al Horford
78 – Chris Kaman
78 – David Lee
78 - Andrew Bogut
77 - Marc Gasol
77 - Marcus Camby
77 - Shaquille O'Neal

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Eddie Johnson put on blast

There are few writers I find more irritating than hoopshype blogger and former NBA player Eddie Johnson. EJ has an incredible amount of arrogance supported by substandard NBA knowledge and lackluster writing ability. He is a Suns' homer and front-runner through and through, and just about every prediction he makes goes bad (Cavs will beat the Spurs! (because I hate them. I'm a Suns homer.) Magic will beat the Lakers! (because I hate them too. I'm a Suns homer.)

The guy is so dumb he's got to be a 2K Insider candidate.

I decided to read one of his blogs after ignoring him for a year, and I see that things don't really change.

Here is his post... followed by my relatively angry retort.

http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/2010/01/16/the-top-10-disappointments/


Oh boy, more poorly thought analysis by Eddie Johnson!

10. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio

Eddie Johnson moans about Ginobili’s shooting percentage.
Eddie Johnson doesn’t realize that 44% of Ginobili’s shots are threes.
Eddie Johnson says absolutely nothing about the rest of Manu’s game, like his defense or passing.

Ginobili: 12.6 ppg, 4.3 apg, 1.4 spg (25.6 mpg)
Crawford: 17.2 ppg, 2.6 apg, 0.8 spg (30.2 mpg)

Is Jamal Crawford disappointing too?

“I know he has been injured over the last few years, but so have Kobe Bryant and Amare Stoudemire.”

Are you joking. You have to be. You just compared Manu’s injuries to Kobe’s pinky? Kobe didn’t miss a game over the last two years. Manu missed 38 last year. I know these hoopshype people give you a deadline to write this crap, but could you at least do your homework before you misinform basketball fans?

9. Mehmet Okur, Utah

So uh, you DO realize that Okur’s production has merely reverted back to 2008 levels, right? Boozer obviously takes his shots on the block…

Additionally, it’s nothing short of comical that you say trading Boozer would be the wrong move when everyone and their mother knows Booz’s gone as a 2010 free agent. You wrote an article ripping on players, you should be prepared to get ripped for the dumb things that come out of your mouth.

Okur is having his best shotblocking season in years, btw. A fact you surely did not take into consideration.

8. Vince Carter, Orlando

Shooting 39% from the field, but also shooting 87% from the line. Who else do you expect to shoot anyway? Turkoglu was the only guy who could create his own shot last season, and he was basically replaced with VC. Howard was 4th on the team in FGA last year, just as he is this year. VC ain’t the problem - it’s Dwight’s inability to score one-on-one that holds this team back.

7. Dwight Howard, Orlando

I am always throughly amused when people think the solution to Dwight Howard’s offensive woes is giving him more shots.

Nevermind that an 0.45 A/T ratio is absolutely pathetic for a featured offensive player. Force-feeding Howard will just result in more turnovers and offensive fouls.

Tim Duncan: 1.60
David Lee: 1.34
Dirk: 1.28
Dwight Howard: 0.45

Even David Lee can take 14 shots per game because he can actually handle the ball and find ways to get teammates to score (not to mention shoot outside of 8 feet). Howard is a joke in those areas and it’s sad that a former NBA player thinks the solution is more touches. Didn’t you play with Hakeem? You seriously can’t tell the difference between a dominant post presence like Hakeem or Duncan and a pure putback player like Howard? Take away Howard’s athleticism and he’s Samuel Dalembert.

6. Derrick Rose, Chicago

Rose is averaging 19 and 6, shooting 47% from the field, and his team is just as good as it was last season, despite replacing Ben Gordon with Jannero Pargo.

Use your goddamn brain.

Also, just curious, where do you come up with dumb analogies like “No Ben Gordon = More Assists!”

5. Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee

Bogut is putting up good numbers. But we should hold his draft position against him five years later (just curious… why isn’t #2 pick Marvin Williams at the top of your list? No Darko? Shaun Livingston? What about Bargnani who isn’t even better than LaMarcus Aldridge?)

Also, it’s comical that you are crying about Bogut letting Brandon Jennings take threes when that’s EXACTLY what Dwight Howard does! Comparing Bogut to Hakeem and Shaq has to be the dumbest comp of the new decade.

Only in Eddie Johnson’s world could a player averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks (compared to 11/10/1 a season prior) be considered a disappointment. Because he missed a ****ing layup the one game he saw him play.

THINK BEFORE YOU WRITE!!!!!!!!

4. Elton Brand, Philadelphia

Holy crap. Brand is averaging 15 pts on 54% shooting off the bench. TOTAL disappointment right there. ESPECIALLY for a player that missed 127 games over the last two years. Right?

3. Ben Gordon, Detroit

It’s interesting that Tayshaun Prince is averaging 9 points (14 last year) and has missed 30 games, but it’s Gordon whose the disappointment.

And if you think Gordon is a trade candidate with 4 years left on his contract, I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya.

2. Caron Butler, Washington

Yes, something happened. Arenas got healthy, and Flip Saunders started coaching. Nevermind that the whole franchise is a trainwreck right now.

1. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland

LOL. Aldridge is the disappointment. Not #1 pick Bargnani who is inferior to Aldridge in every way but 3pt shooting. Not #1 pick Greg Oden who can’t stay on the court. Not even Aldridge’s teammate Andre Miller who didn’t even start most of the year.

It’s Aldridge who is most disappointing.

Not Shaq who is averaging only 10 points on 52% shooting next to LeBron James. He doesn’t crack this list. LaMarcus Aldridge tops it.

And Portland will struggle to make the playoffs? Really? Even with all the injuries they are still better than your pathetic Suns.

Blazers: 25-16
Suns: 24-16 (2nd worst defense in the league FTW! lol y cnt Aldridge b mre lke Amare?)

You are a joke writer. Stick to jumpshot training videos. That is all.

Rashidi’s Top 10 Disappointments
10. Ramon Sessions
9. Jose Calderon
8. Courtney Lee
7. T.J. Ford
6. Allen Iverson
5. Devin Harris
4. John Salmons
3. Andris Biedrins
2. Michael Redd
1. Tracy McGrady

Sessions put up big numbers in Milwaukee but has been nothing more than an average backup behind a rookie in Minnesota.

Calderon has not meshed with Turkoglu since they both function as a primary ball-handler. They get in each other’s way on offense and they are both are poor defensive players. It’s no coincidence Calderon’s injury and demotion to the bench has led to more Toronto victories.

Tyson Chandler has been throughly outplayed by Nazr Mohammed. Nuff said.

Lee was supposedly a promising young guard in Orlando, but is clearly nothing better than replacement level. He is averaging 11 pts (33 mpg) on 39% shooting in NJ and one of the main reasons they have only won 3 games. It’s pretty funny that not a single Net makes your list despite them clearly being the most disappointing team in perhaps all of sports this century.

Ford lost his starting job to Earl Watson, and lost the backup minutes to 2nd round pick A.J. Price who is legitimately outplaying Ford, who was a measley 1-28 from 3pt range this season.

Iverson quit his way out of Memphis, and has been out of shape/hurt in Philadelphia to the tune of 15 ppg on one of the league’s worst teams (and a team that made the playoffs without Elton Brand last season).

Villanueva was a key signing that has underperformed while Hamilton, Prince, and Gordon were out with injuries. He is getting paid a great deal of money to win the imaginary 7th man of the year award.

Harris was an all-star in 2009 but has shot the ball very poorly this season (39% from the field). He is hitting 29% from mid-range and 21% from deep, a big reason why the Nets are the worst offensive team in the league.

Biedrins has been hurt all year long, averaging only 5 pts and 6 rebs when he does take the court.

Salmons was supposed to make up for the loss of Ben Gordon. Instead, he’s made things worse.

Redd averaged 11 pts and 2 ast, shooting 35% from the field before blowing out his left knee AGAIN.

McGrady was unimpressive in his return, and is training on the side because he couldn’t handle a diminished role.

Honorable mentions: DeShawn Stevenson (2 ppg on 27% shooting), Blake Griffin (#1 pick missing whole season), Mario Chalmers (lost starting job to Carlos Arroyo), Tyson Chandler (throughly outplayed by Nazr Mohammed), Charlie Villanueva (worse numbers than last season and despite all the injuries hes contending for 7th man of the year- not a typo).

Friday, January 15, 2010

Top PGs of the 2010 Free Agent Class

I've been keeping tabs on the 2010 free agent class as it has garned a lot of hype over the years, and I'd like to take a look at it in-depth to see if it's worth all the hype it's been getting.

We start with the point guards. There will be at least six starting jobs available this summer (Bobcats, Heat, Knicks, Lakers, Pacers, and Wizards). That's a bit problematic given the lack of starting caliber players in this year's free agent class - many teams may look to fill it via the draft (say hello to John Wall), and may get stuck with a veteran stopgap (or worse, overpaying a low-end option)

TOP FIVE POINT GUARDS

Raymond Felton (26 years old, 76 rating)
Key Statistics: 12.9 pts, 5.2 ast, 2.0 stl, 33.8 mpg (15.4 PER, .535 TS%)
Felton took the qualifying offer from Charlotte last season because he couldn't work out a long-term deal with them. The Bobcats had justifiable questions about Felton's shooting percentages that drag a team down. Well don't look, but Felton is shooting a career best .465 from the field, drastically better than his career .405. He's also playing the best defense of his career, and currently ranks 4th in the league in STL% (2.9 per 100 possessions). Odds are he re-ups with the Bobcats, who could make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. I don't think Felton will improve much beyond where he's at now, so hopefully both parties can come to reasonable terms. It's possible that someone blows him out of the water given that he's the only legit starting PG in this season's class, but I doubt it.

Nate Robinson (26 years old, 76 rating)
Key Statistics: 12.8 pts, 3.2 ast, 23.3 mpg (16.6 PER, .563 TS%)
We've all heard the story by now. Nate was benched by Knick coach Mike D'Antoni for a month, and exploded for 41 points in his return. He is one of the best scoring points in the league, and could start for more than a few teams in the league. His ability to run a team is actually underrated. Firstly, he can actually do it (unlike other microwave guards like Leandro Barbosa, Monta Ellis, etc). Secondly, it's not like Devin Harris, Gilbert Arenas, or Tony Parker were ever great at getting their teammates involved; they're all-stars because they can drop 20 per night, and that's what Nate can do for a team. The main thing Nate has to work on right now is cutting his turnovers back to it's normal rate (which I think he's somewhat excused him for, given that he hadn't played for a month straight). It's anyone's guess where Nate will end up - much of it hinges on who else the Knicks end up with in free agency. For what it's worth, he wants to be a Knick, but this is the summer he has to look at his long-term security.

Kyle Lowry (24 years old, 75 rating)
Key Statistics: 8.3 pts, 4.6 ast, 4.1 reb, 1.1 stl, 25.8 mpg (15.3 PER, .523 TS%)
Lowry is basically a younger Felton, and actually poses some similarities to Rajon Rondo. Lowry is excellent at drawing fouls (among the best in the league at PG), and has been very aggressive crashing the glass for offensive boards this year (the best PG this season). Like Felton, he's a tenacious defender that has even played the off-guard position this season (something Felton did with Brevin Knight and D.J. Augustin prior to this season). Lowry is a poor shooter however, which is where the Rondo comparison comes into play. Lowry's a restricted free agent, and Houston likely values him as a backup to Aaron Brooks; so don't be surprised if he's not going anywhere.

Luke Ridnour (29 years old, 73 rating)
Key Statistics: 11.3 pts, 4.0 ast, 22.8 mpg (18.4 PER, .588 TS%)
Ridnour's improvement this season has been nothing short of staggering, and you can point right to his shooting numbers.
Inside: 33-71 (.465)
Close: 27-48 (.562)
Mid: 65-115 (.565)
3pt: 34-85 (.400)
Total: 159-319 (.498)
While Ridnour still can't finish inside, his improvement from the mid-range is nothing short of incredible. His TS% is sitting pretty at .588 which far eclipses his previous career high of .509. While it's possible that Ridnour could turn this into a starting job elsewhere, he'd probably be best suited for his super-sub role in Milwaukee going forward. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Will Bynum (27 years old, 73 rating)
Key Statistics: 12.1 pts, 4.3 ast, 27.3 mpg (14.7 PER, .515 TS%)
Bynum is Nate Robinson meets Kyle Lowry; an athletic scoring guard with some PG ability, but a poor shooter. Considering the Pistons have Stuckey, Gordon, and Rip, it's safe to say Bynum is the most likely of the top PGs to be switching teams (although trading Rip between now and then would change things quite a bit).

Other notable PGs
71 – Rafer Alston, Heat (34)
70 – Earl Boykins, Wizards (34)
70 - Keyon Dooling, Nets (30)
69 – Chris Duhon, Knicks (28)
69 – Earl Watson, Pacers (31)
68 – Randy Foye, Wizards (27) (RFA)
68 – Jason Williams, Magic (35)
68 – Carlos Arroyo, Heat (31)
68 – C.J. Watson, Warriors (26)
67 – Jordan Farmar, Lakers (24) (RFA)
67 – Jamaal Tinsley, Grizzlies (32)
66 – Derek Fisher, Lakers (36)
64 – Steve Blake, Blazers (30)

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Real 2K Insider [01-11-10]

Following up my last massive update with ANOTHER massive update (perhaps I should make this a trend?) . My big project for this week was modifying Speed/Quickness ratings for all big men, and continuing to adjust each player's Shoot in Traffic and Shoot Off Dribble ratings, as well as their shot tendencies. It may not seem like a big update on paper, but it's not one that can be told by overall rating.

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The lastest Real 2K Insider roster has been uploaded to 2K Share! Download it now, and please feel free to leave your thoughts and feedback!

FILE NAME: Real 2K Insider [01-11-10]
GAMERTAG: Real 2K Insider
PLATFORM: Xbox 360

HIGHLIGHTS
69.6% of all players in the NBA (292/419) have been edited!
All edited players updated monthly!
No missing players!
Accurate player positions and rotations for all teams!
Accurate contracts for all edited players!
Updated player shooting tendencies, coach profiles, and accessories!
Revised speed and quickness ratings for bigmen!

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LATEST NEWS (Player Movement, Injury, and Rotation news)


Michael Redd tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee Sunday night, ending his season prematurely for the third time in four years. His career could be over. Next season's 18 million dollar contract will be 80% covered by insurance if (when) Redd misses 41 straight games in 2010-11 with the injury - which will make him a very valuable trade asset a year from now.

If this is it for Redd, he finishes his career with a scoring average of 20.3. He was the lone All-NBA player of the 2000 draft (3rd team in 2004), and one of only three named to an all-star team (Redd, Kenyon Martin, and Jamaal Magloire, all in 2004 oddly enough. Clearly a weak year for the east). Seeing as how his career earnings will reach 100 million by the time his contract is up, it could have been much worse for the former 43rd pick.


In case you haven't heard, Gilbert Arenas was suspended indefinitely for being a jackass about his on-going "guns in the lockerroom drama". Arenas has probably played his last game this season, could be looking at jailtime, having his contract voided, losing tens of millions of dollars.... but you can actually listen to him crack jokes about it all on his twitter page. Who is his agent, and why isn't he doing his job?

Side note: Javaris Crittenton has probably played his last NBA game just for being involved in the whole fiasco. Enjoy Poland, Javaris.

Now for some good news. Nate Robinson returned to the Knick rotation after a month long exile, and scored 41 points in his return, carrying the team over the Hawks in Atlanta. The Knicks are 3-2 since his return, ending any ridiculous notion that he was a detriment to the team. He also rejected a trade to the Grizzlies (for Marcus Williams and a draft pick), reaffirming that he wants to be a Knick. Larry Hughes has since taken Nate's place on Mike D'Antoni's black list.

Similar to what Nate went through a month ago, T.J. Ford has found himself at the end of Jim O'Brien's bench in Indiana, having gone from starting PG to fourth-string. Dahntay Jones may have joined him as well, though that may have to do with Danny Granger's return from injury and Mike Dunleavy Jr. playing well. Earl Watson replaced Ford in the starting lineup, and rookie A.J. Price has looked good off the bench (although the Pacers have been dreadful since November). To say Ford is a candidate to be traded this season would be nothing short of an exaggeration.

Jose Calderon returned from injury, but has been coming off the bench in Toronto. The Raptors have found new life under Jarrett Jack, and are now above .500 pushing for the 5th/6th seed as many thought they would.

Vince Carter may be demoted to the bench, as the Magic haven't quite clicked offensively. There have been many games where Dwight Howard struggles to take 10 shots, and bringing VC off the bench may help in that regard. Carter has also struggled mightily over the last four games playing through an injury, and is currently day-to-day.

Rafer Alston was bought out by the Nets, and signed with his former team, the Miami Heat. He immediately replaced Carlos Arroyo in the starting lineup and relegated him to 3rd string PG just days after Arroyo had his contract guaranteed for the season.

The Nets also traded Eduardo Najera was traded to Dallas (where he is a fan favorite) in exchange for Kris Humphries and the unwanted Shawne Williams. The Nets then waived Shawne and their own Sean Williams, and both may be done in the league thanks to their bad attitudes.

Hilton Armstrong was traded to the Kings (for a second round pick) in a move that will save the Hornets a little under five million dollars, and brings them closer to the luxury tax threshold. Look for them to unload Ike Diogu, James Posey, or Julian Wright at the trade deadline in another cost cutting move that brings them under the tax.

Lester Hudson was waived by the Celtics, and claimed off waivers by the Grizzlies. Why? I have no idea. He's their 4th string PG (going from a 3rd string situation in Boston) and the only thing I can muster is perhaps the Grizz anticipate trading Marcus Williams (or another guard) soon.

Mikki Moore was waived by the Warriors so they could guarantee Chris Hunter's contract for the season (Moore is out until at least March with an injury). Cartier Martin is the new injury replacement operating on a 10-day contract. Elsewhere, Othello Hunter was waived by Atlanta, Pops Mensah-Bonsu was waived by Toronto, Mike Harris was waived by Houston, Coby Karl was waived by Cleveland, and Shavlik Randolph was waived and then re-signed to a 10-day contract by Portland. Roko Ukic asked for his contract to be terminated so he could return to Europe. Sundiata Gaines was signed by Utah after they waited as long as they were legally able to before adding a 13th player. Has there ever been a penny-pinching season like this one?

Brevin Knight is a Bobcats broadcaster and essentially retired. Jerry Stackhouse recently worked out for a Chinese team, and if can't get work there, he might as well be considered retired too. He's been making a weekly appearance on some radio show, and with talented D-Leaguers like Mario West, Morris Almond, Mike Harris, etc available on 10-day contracts, there is no need for teams to offer guaranteed money to has-beens like Antonio Daniels, Darius Miles, or Jake Voskuhl (i.e. the rest of the free agent pool that didn't go to Europe/Asia).

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BIGGEST MOVERS

While there are many players I edited this week, only three stand out to me as "big movers".

David Lee has played at an all-star level and is proving all of his skeptics wrong by adding a legit mid-range jumper out to about 20 feet. He is averaging 19 points per game on 58% shooting, grabbing 11 boards per game, and is even dishing 3 assists per game at the center position, while only committing 2 turnovers per game. He is playing with a level of intelligence that I have never seen from say, Amare Stoudemire. If he were blessed with freakish size and athleticism of Dwight Howard, Lee would easily be the top center in the league. Instead, he is merely an all-star, and the main reason the Knicks have recovered from their 1-9 start (they are 14-13 since). He averaged 20-12-3 (62% shooting) in December, and is at 20-11-4 (56% shooting) in January.

The other Knick I wanted to talk about was Jonathan Bender, who is really back from the dead. Bender is not a garbage time player, but a key member of the rotation that scored a season high 16 points in 20 minutes tonight, while also recording a 4 block game (18 mins) against the Bobcats last week. The last time Bender saw meaningful minutes was 7 years ago, which makes his story truly inspiring.

Ty Lawson rounds out my list after performing very well in the absence of Chauncey Billups. Lawson gave us a glimpse of the future by averaging 16 points (56% shooting) and 6 assists in 7 starts. Perhaps a move to SG is in the cards for Mr. Billups down the line.

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THE RATINGS

292/419 (.696) NBA players updated
(+/-) = Difference from 2K Sports roster
LW = Overall change from last week

Top Players Not Yet Edited
78 - Ben Gordon
78 - Tayshaun Prince (INJURED)
76 - Richard Jefferson
73 - Keyon Dooling
72 - Mehmet Okur

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POINT GUARDS (69/82)
95 – Chris Paul (0)
89 – Deron Williams (0)
86 – Rajon Rondo (0) (LW: +1)
84 – Tony Parker (0)
82 – Steve Nash (0)
81 – Gilbert Arenas (-4) (SUSPENDED)
81 – Baron Davis (0)
81 - Russell Westbrook (+1)
80 – Chauncey Billups (-4) (LW: -2)
80 – Devin Harris (0)
79 – Tyreke Evans (+1) (LW: +1)
79 – Brandon Jennings (+3)
78 – Derrick Rose (+1)
78 – Jameer Nelson (-1)
78 – Aaron Brooks (+1)
77 – Jason Kidd (-3)
77 – Mo Williams (0)
77 – Ty Lawson (-2) (LW: +4)
75 – Rodney Stuckey (+1)
75 – Andre Miller (-3)
75 – Jonny Flynn (0)
75 – Kyle Lowry (+1)
74 – Raymond Felton (+1)
73 – Louis Williams (0)
73 – Jose Calderon (+1) (LW: -1)
73 – Nate Robinson (-5)
73 – T.J. Ford (0)
73 – Darren Collison (+3)
72 – Mario Chalmers (-3) (LW: -1)
72 – Will Bynum (+4)
72 – Luke Ridnour (+5)
71 – Mike Bibby (-6)
71 – Michael Conley (-2)
71 – Rafer Alston (-2)
70 – Stephen Curry (0)
70 – Chris Duhon (0)
70 – Earl Watson (+4)
70 – Earl Boykins (+3)
69 – Beno Udrih (+6)
69 – Jrue Holiday (+2)
69 – Toney Douglas (+2) (LW: -1)
68 – Carlos Arroyo (+3) (LW: +2)

68 – Jason Williams (+1)
68 – Jose Barea (-1)
68 – Jarrett Jack (-1)
68 – Ramon Sessions (-2)
68 – C.J. Watson (0)
68 – Eric Maynor (0)
67 – Jordan Farmar (+1)
67 – Steve Blake (-3)
67 – Jamaal Tinsley (-1)
67 – D.J. Augustin (-2)
67 – Rodrigue Beaubois (0)
67 – Jeff Teague (+1) (LW: +1)
66 – Derek Fisher (-5)
65 – Goran Dragic (0)
64 – Anthony Johnson (+3)
63 – George Hill (+2)
63 – Eddie House (+5)
63 – Sergio Rodriguez (+1)
62 – Daniel Gibson (+2)
62 – Patrick Mills (-6)
61 – Bobby Brown (+3)
61 – Lester Hudson (-1)
61 – Sundiata Gaines (CAP)
60 – Anthony Carter (-1) (LW: -3)
60 – Acie Law (0)
60 – Speedy Claxton (-1) (INACTIVE)
57 – Lindsey Hunter (-4)

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SHOOTING GUARDS 46/74
95 - Kobe Bryant (-2)
94 – Dwyane Wade (0)
87 – Brandon Roy (-1)
85 – Joe Johnson (-4)
82 – Manu Ginobili (-1)
79 – Monta Ellis (-3)
79 – Vince Carter (-2)
78 – Allen Iverson (-6)
78 – Kevin Martin (+1) (INJURED)
77 – Richard Hamilton (-1)
77 – Stephen Jackson (-4)
76 – Ray Allen (-3)
76 – Trevor Ariza (-1) (LW: -1)
76 – Jason Terry (-2)
76 – Kirk Hinrich (-1)
76 – James Harden (-2) (LW: -1)
76 – Tracy McGrady (0) (INACTIVE)
75 – Delonte West (+1)
74 – Eric Gordon (0)
74 – O.J. Mayo (-4)
74 – Leandro Barbosa (0)
73 – Jason Richardson (+1)
73 – Wilson Chandler (0) (LW: -1)
73 – Jamal Crawford (-1)
73 – J.R. Smith (+2)
73 – Larry Hughes (0) (LW: -1)
72 – Michael Redd (-3) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
71 – John Salmons (+2)
71 – Jerryd Bayless (+3)
71 – Rudy Fernandez (+3) (INJURED)
70 – Flip Murray (+4)
69 – Shannon Brown (+1) (LW: -1)
68 – Willie Green (0)
67 – Thabo Sefolosha (+2)
67 – Charlie Bell (+1)
67 – Sasha Vujacic (0)
67 – Tony Allen (+1) (LW: +3)
66 – Arron Afflalo (+3)
66 – Marco Belinelli (+1)
66 – Marcus Thornton (+5)
65 – Devin Brown (+6)
65 – J.J. Redick (+10)
62 – Wesley Matthews (0)
59 – Morris Peterson (+4)
58 – Sonny Weems (+2)
25 – Cuttino Mobley (CAP) (INJURED/RETIRED)

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SMALL FORWARDS (57/83)
95 – LeBron James (-1)
88 – Carmelo Anthony (-2)
85 – Kevin Durant (-1)
84 – Danny Granger (+1)
82 – Andre Iguodala (-4) (LW: -1)
82 – Paul Pierce (-3) (LW: -2)

82 – Gerald Wallace (0)
79 – Caron Butler (-3)
78 – Ron Artest (-2)
77 – Rudy Gay (-3)
77 – Grant Hill (+3)
76 – Josh Howard (-1)
75 – Luol Deng (-2)
75 – Hedo Turkoglu (-1)
74 – Shawn Marion (-6)
74 – Dahntay Jones (+2)
73 – Shane Battier (-2)
72 - Kelenna Azubuike (+1) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
72 – Jared Dudley (+1)
71 – Chris Douglas-Roberts (-1)
71 – Mickael Pietrus (-1)
70 – Quentin Richardson (+1)
70 – Martell Webster (+4)
70 – Andres Nocioni (+1)
69 – Danilo Gallinari (+6)
69 – Matt Barnes (+3)
69 – Terrence Williams (-2)
68 – Marvin Williams (+2)
68 – Marquis Daniels (+3) (INJURED)
68 – James Posey (-4)
68 – Omri Casspi (+6) (LW: +1)
67 – Carlos Delfino (+4)
67 – Mike Dunleavy (+3)
67 – Al Thornton (0)
67 – Luke Walton (+1) (INJURED)
67 – Joey Graham (-1)
66 – C.J. Miles (+8)
66 – Jonas Jerebko (+2)
66 – Anthony Morrow (+1)
66 – Maurice Evans (0)
65 – Chase Budinger (-2)
65 – Nicolas Batum (+1) (INJURED)
65 – Joe Alexander (+5) (INJURED)
65 – Julian Wright (-1)
65 – Antoine Wright (+3) (LW: +1)
65 – Jonathan Bender (+5) (LW: +8)

64 – Sam Young (-3)
63 – Donte Greene (+6)
63 – Derrick Brown (-5)
61 - Peja Stojakovic (0)
61 – Marcus Landry (CAP) (LW: +2)
60 – Jason Kapono (+2) (LW: +1)
60 – J.R. Giddens (+3) (LW: +1)
60 – Bill Walker (+1)
59 – Devean George (-2)
56 – Adam Morrison (+2) (LW: +2)
25 – Matt Harpring (-41) (INJURED, RETIRED)

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POWER FORWARDS 62/90
87 – Chris Bosh (0)
86 – Pau Gasol (-1)
84 – Kevin Garnett (-3) (LW: -2)
83 – Dirk Nowitzki (-1) (LW: -1)

83 – Josh Smith (+1) (LW: -1)
83 – Carlos Boozer (-2)
81 – Amare Stoudemire (-2)
78 – Antawn Jamison (+2)
77 – Zach Randolph (-1) (LW: +1)
77 – LaMarcus Aldridge (-1)
77 – Kevin Love (+3)
77 – Blake Griffin (+1) (INJURED)
77 – Carl Landry (+1) (LW: +1)
76 – Luis Scola (+3) (LW: +1)

76 – Jeff Green (-1)
76 – Kenyon Martin (+2) (LW: +3)
75 – David West (-1)
75 – Marcus Camby (-2)
75 – Al Harrington (0) (LW: -1)
75 – Elton Brand (+1) (LW: +1)
75 – Lamar Odom (-3) (LW: +1)

75 – Corey Maggette (0)
75 – Paul Millsap (+1)
75 – Tyrus Thomas (+4)
74 – Michael Beasley (-1) (LW: -2)

73 – Rashard Lewis (+1)
73 – Jason Thompson (+1)
72 – Troy Murphy (0)
72 – Ersan Ilyasova (+9)
71 – Anderson Varejao (+3)
70 – Thaddeus Young (-5)
70 – Boris Diaw (-1)
70 – Brandon Bass (+2)
69 – Travis Outlaw (0) (INJURED)
69 – Hakim Warrick (+4)
69 - Louis Amundson (+4)
68 – Yi Jianlian (-1)
68 – Shelden Williams (+7)
68 – Jordan Hill (+6) (LW: +3)
67 – Antonio McDyess (-2)
67 – Taj Gibson (+4) (LW: +3)
67 – Renaldo Balkman (0)
67 – Brandan Wright (+2) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
66 – Jared Jeffries (+2) (LW: +1)
66 – Glen Davis (+1) (LW: +2)
65 – Ryan Anderson (+3)
65 – Darius Songaila (+3)
65 – Serge Ibaka (+4)
65 – Dante Cunningham (+3)
65 – Joe Smith (+1) (LW: -1)
63 - Josh Powell (-1)
62 – Josh Boone (+4)
62 – Eduardo Najera (-1) (INJURED)
62 – Tim Thomas (+2)
62 – Marcus Haislip (CAP)
61 – Jeff Pendergraph (-2)
59 – Malik Allen (0)
59 – Taylor Griffin (-3)
58 – Vladimir Radmanovic (+4)
54 – Brian Cook (0)
53 – Brian Scalabrine (+9)
48 – Steve Novak (+2)


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CENTERS 58/90
90 – Tim Duncan (+2)
90 – Dwight Howard (+1)
85 – Yao Ming (+2) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
81 – Greg Oden (+7) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
81 – Emeka Okafor (0) (LW: +1)
80 – David Lee (+2) (LW: +3)

79 – Al Horford (+2) (LW: -1)
79 – Al Jefferson (-2)
79 - Andrew Bogut (+2)
78 – Brook Lopez (0)
78 – Nene (+3) (LW: +1)
78 – Kendrick Perkins (+6) (LW: +1)

77 – Andrew Bynum (+1) (LW: -1)
77 – Chris Kaman (0)
77 – Shaquille O’Neal (0)
76 – Marc Gasol (-1)
76 – Andris Biedrins (+2)
75 – Jermaine O’Neal (0)
74 – Joakim Noah (+1)
73 – Marreese Speights (+1) (LW: -1)
73 – Rasheed Wallace (-2)
72 – Roy Hibbert (+3)
72 – Samuel Dalembert (+4) (LW: +2)
72 – Zydrunas Ilgauskas (+1)
72 – Anthony Randolph (+1)
72 – DeJuan Blair (+12)
72 – Marcin Gortat (+4)
71 – Erick Dampier (+10)
71 – Chris Andersen (+3)
70 – Andrea Bargnani (+1)
70 – Ben Wallace (-4)
69 – Brendan Haywood (+4)
69 – Joel Przybilla (+2) (INJURED, OUT FOR SEASON)
69 – Drew Gooden (+2)
68 – Chuck Hayes (-1)
68 - Ronny Turiaf (0)
68 – Zaza Pachulia (+1)
68 – Kurt Thomas (-3)
68 – Nazr Mohammed (+6)
67 – Tyson Chandler (+1)
67 – Spencer Hawes (+1)
66 – Nenad Krstic (+6)
64 – Hasheem Thabeet (+7)
64 – Kwame Brown (0)
63 – Channing Frye (+1)
63 – Etan Thomas (+1)
63 – Darko Milicic (+4)
61 – Johan Petro (+4)
60 – Juwan Howard (0)
60 – Solomon Jones (+6)
60 – DeAndre Jordan (+4)
60 – DJ Mbenga (+8)
60 – Eddy Curry (-5)
59 – Chris Hunter (-1)
58 – Adonal Foyle (+1) (INJURED)
52 – Jason Collins (0)
51 – Jarron Collins (+3)
51 – Randolph Morris (+1)


Thoughts? Complaints? Suggestions? Leave a comment.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Insider Analysis: Yi Jianlian

One player I forgot to mention in my critique of 2K's latest roster was actually the one they improved the most: Yi Jianlian.

Since it's in the interest of fairness that I include him in my analysis, I've decided to feature him.

Yi Jianlian
Overall 69 (+10)
Inside 85 (+15)
Close 84 (+17)
Med 72
3pt 72
LPS 78 (+14)
FT 81 (+4)
Layup 59
Dunk 67
StandDunk 70
SOD 58
SIT 55
Handle 57
OffHand 47
Security 43 (+2)
Pass 30
Block 68 (+17)
Steal 57 (+12)
Hands 76
OffReb 58 (+5)
DefReb 82
OffPost 77 (+9)
DefPost 54 (+8)
OffAwr 66 (+14)
DefAwr 48 (+12)
OffClutch 25
DefClutch 25
Consistency 65 (+40)
Stamina 84 (+7)
Speed 52
Quickness 55
Strength 37
Vertical 64
Hustle 55
Durability 70
Potential 85 (+7)
Emotion 60 (+35)

Starting at the top, yes, 2K really did have Yi rated lower than the likes of Eduardo Najera. It's tough to fault Yi, however, as Yi is a faceup bigman, and like all faceup bigmen, his overall rating suffers mightily due to 2K's terrible overall rating formula. That's why you'll find me skeptical going into this - 2K has already shown they have no problem overrating Dirk Nowitzki in a few key areas to ensure he maintains a high rating... and given that Yi is only a point behind Andrea Bargnani, I have no doubt the same has happened here.

Looking at Yi's shot ratings, it's easy to see how 2K has erred. Looking at his hotspots...

Inside: 33-59 (.559)
Non-Dunk: 19-45 (.422)
Close: 13-31 (.417)
Mid: 16-51 (.313)
3pt: 5-15 (.333)

Yi is STILL a terrible finisher when he isn't dunking, so a 15 point improvement Inside is clearly inaccurate. All one has to do is look to his teammate, Brook Lopez (87 Inside) to see how off-base this is.

Inside: 181-322 (.562)
Non-Dunk: 134-275 (.487)
Close: 39-93 (.419)

Lopez doesn't exactly deserve an 87 himself at this present time, and even he is clearly head and shoulders above Yi. Meanwhile, Lopez has an 82 Close rating, which is 2 points lower than Yi. Yi was a dreadful 19-56 (.339) last season, so a 17 point jump based on a handful of games is the definition of an itchy trigger finger.

Predictably, Yi's mid-range is not treated the same way. Yi posts a better Close% in a small sample size and sees a 17 improvement. However, when Yi posts a considerably worse Mid% in a small sample size, there is no regression. Once again, the lack of consistency from 2K is startling.

Moving along to Yi's post game, we see a 14 point increase in shot making ability, and a 9 point increase to post repitoire. Again, all we have to do is look to Yi's teammate Brook Lopez... as an added bonus, let's throw Knick center David Lee in there, as well as banger Marc Gasol.

LPS
Lopez: 82
Gasol: 80
Yi: 78
Lee: 68

OffPost
Lopez: 84
Gasol: 78
Yi: 77
Lee: 63

Since the majority of post shots come from "Close" range, this is a substantial boost for Yi without a body of work to show for it. The fact that he is right there with Gasol, and significantly better than Mr. Lee (who is 33-66 from Close btw) is just insulting.


From here, we move along to blocks and steals.

BLK%
2008: 2.7
2009: 2.1
2010: 2.5

2K is absolutely hilarious. They have a statistical scale that they use to determine their ratings yet they only follow it when it's convenient for them. Yi should only have a 57 block rating, yet he was bestowed with an impressive 68 block rating. Kenyon Martin blocks just as many shots as Yi, yet he rates 6 points lower. Chris Bosh also sits 9 points lower, despite his similar block rate. What makes Yi so special? Did they release the game in China and get fan backlash?

STL%
2008: 1.1
2009: 1.1
2010: 1.3

Yi's stealing has barely improved (if at all, given the sample size given the 447 minute sample we're talking about), yet he jumps 12 points to a range that'd be deserving of a player stealing 1.5% of the time.

Finally, let's check out the rebounding...

ORB%
2008: 7.3
2009: 5.5
2010: 6.5

DRB%
2008: 17.7
2009: 22.0
2010: 18.8

Yi received a 5 point boost in offensive rebounding. I'm okay with that. Did any of you notice that his defensive rebounding remained unscathed? No consistency whatsoever. Looking at Yi's teammates...

Lopez: 20.5 = 79
Boone: 19.7 = 70
T. Will: 18.9 = 68
Yi: 18.8 = 82

Yi remains the top defensive rebounder on the team, when that clearly isn't the case.

Now, I know what you're all thinking. I talk the talk, but can I walk the walk? (Okay, you weren't really thinking about it. I suggested it. Then you started thinking about it.)

REAL 2K INSIDER'S OFFICIAL CHANGES

Yi Jianlian
Overall 68 (down from 69) (59)
Inside 70 (down from 85) (70)
Close 77 (down from 84) (67)
Medium 72
3PT 74 (up from 72)
LowPost 71 (down from 78) (64)
FreeThrow 81 (77)
Layup 54 (down from 59)
Dunk 67
StandDunk 65 (down from 70)
OffDribble 48 (down from 58)
InTraffic 65 (up from 55)
Handle 57
OffHand 47
Security 43 (41)
Pass 30
Block 57 (up from 68) (51)
Steal 50 (up from 57) (45)
Hands 76
BallDef 41 (up from 36)
OffReb 58 (53)
DefReb 67 (down from 82)
OffPost 73 (up from 77) (68)
DefPost 56 (up from 54) (46)
OffAwr 68 (up from 66) (52)
DefAwr 56 (up from 48) (36)
OffClutch 25
DefClutch 25
Consistency 65 (25)
Stamina 85 (up from 84) (77)
Speed 67 (up from 52)
Quickness 65 (up from 55)
Strength 42 (up from 37)
Vertical 64
Hustle 55
Durability 63 (down from 70)
Potential 85 (78)
Emotion 60 (25)

Lo and behold! Fair ratings, and he still improved 9 overall points. Imagine that.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Breaking down 2K Sports' 01-08-10 update

As we reach the 3rd month of NBA action (and 4th month of roster updates) we see that 2K's updates are becoming even more infrequent and mindless.

KEVIN DURANT
Overall 86 (+2)
Inside 95 (+5)
Close 89 (+6)
Medium 80 (-5)
3pt 75 (-10)
LPS 86 (+4)
FT 87 (+1)
Layup 80 (+5)
Dunk 82 (+3)
SOD 86 (+2)
SIT 83 (+6)
Handle 77 (+5)
OffHand 71 (+5)
Pass 52 (+11)
Block 50 (+8)
Steal 76 (+6)
OffReb 60 (+21)
DefReb 74 (+6)
PostOff 79 (+5)
PostDef 56 (+4)
DefAwr 75 (-4)
Hustle 80 (+10)
Durability 80 (+10)

Durant is only 91-157 (.572) from Inside when you take away his dunks. LeBron James (also 95 Inside) is 156-248 (.629) when you take away his dunks. HARDLY any difference, am I right?

Durant's OffReb% is only 3.3 yet he has a 60 rating. In case you were wondering how incredibly off-scale and wrong that is... Carmelo Anthony's OffReb% is 6.3 yet he has a 53 rating.

Meanwhile, Durant's DefReb% is EXACTLY THE SAME as it was last season (a meager 16.4). Which makes a 6 point improvement laughable at best.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS
Overall 84 (-1)
Shot Low Post 60 (-7)
Pass 82 (-6)

These were overrated? You don't say. Now if only we could get a fix on the defensive attributes that pump Billups' overall rating above actual all-stars like Steve Nash, Danny Granger,

AMARE STOUDEMIRE
Overall 82 (+1)
Inside 89 (+5)
Block 66 (+14)

The sad thing is that this is Amare's worst shot blocking season ever, and they are boosting him substantially when a slight decrease would have been in order. He blocked only 2.1% of shots last season (worthy of 52) and is down to 1.8% this season. Instead of dropping him a couple points, he gets a boost. The Suns are the 2nd worst defensive team in the league, and Amare's ineptitude in this area is a reason why... but don't tell that to 2K. They have the "Insider" after all.

I'm also not sure why they'd boost his Inside rating, as the majority of his points in that range come from dunks, which is seperate from the Inside rating. He's 191-305 (.626) from Inside, but when you take away his league leading 81 dunks (recently passing Howard), he's only 110-224 (.491) which is hardly worthy of an 89. A player with 84 dunk and 90 standing dunk rating does not need an even better standing dunk rating. But I guess 2K disagrees, and would prefer if Amare went 14-16 every game instead of 12-16.

EMEKA OKAFOR
Overall 81 (+1)
Close 77 (+3)
Block 87 (+10)

It's weird when 2K actually gets something right, and makes it all their screwups all the more maddening. Okafor packs a 4.9 block%, which is an 87 rating according to scale. So why aren't they following their scale with Amare? (Or Dirk? Or Gasol? Oh wait, I'm answering my own question, aren't I?) Anyway, no way does Amare deserve a block rating 21 points away from Okafor when he isn't even half the shotblocker.

TY LAWSON
Overall 79 (+6)
Inside 85 (+7)
Close 83 (+17)
Medium 78 (+15)
3pt 82 (+4)
Dunk 72 (+47) - He's dunked ONCE this season, in case you were wondering.
SIT 74 (+16)
Pass 78 (+10)
Hands 84 (+3)
OffAwr 78 (+11)
DefAwr 66 (+5)
Potential 86 (+12)

NBA 2K10: Where ignoring sample sizes happens.

Inside: 69-131 (.527)
Close: 12-21 (.571)
Medium: 20-37 (.540)
3pt: 23-52 (.442)

How many of you actually think any of these will hold up over the course of the season?

Real 2K Insider: Where common sense happens.


DAVID LEE
Overall 78 (+1)
Close 79 (+11)

Lee has been playing at an all-star level, yet 2K could only figure out one rating change. His post game, mid-range game, and awareness are all easily underrated... and this isn't a recent development, that was the case at the beginning of the season.

And yes, it's clear he's underrated if he's lower than Ty Lawson.

JOSE CALDERON
Overall 72 (-2)
FT 84 (-14)
Layup 79 (+4)
SIT 55 (+3)
Pass 89 (-6)
OffAwr 72 (-4)
Consistency 70 (-29)

Oddly enough, Calderon's defense gets a pass. But then, we all know 2K Sports is hardly reasonable. Just look at Calderon's FT rating. Calderon is 39-49 (.796) on the season, a relatively small sample. Obviously, he doesn't deserve a 98 rating. Yet, as a career .885 shooter, he clearly doesn't deserve an 84 either.


OMRI CASSPI
Overall 62 (+7)
Inside 78 (+15)
Close 70 (+9)
3pt 88 (+4)
FT 63 (-14)
SOD 68 (+5)
SIT 51 (+7)
Hands 71 (+9)
OffAwr 71 (+9)
DefAwr 42 (+14)
OffClutch 30 (+5)
Consistency 55 (+30)
Stamina 84 (+9)
Speed 61 (+3)
Quickness 60 (-2) (Not a typo)
Emotion 40 (+15)

Nice of you to finally join us, 2K. Too bad Casspi is still drastically underrated considering you have Chase Budinger 67 overall (65 overall out of the box). I also find it interesting that 2K can give Casspi a boost in a meaningless attribute like Emotion, yet finding more than one attribute to improve on David Lee is just asking for too much.

DEJUAN BLAIR

Just kidding.

JONATHAN BENDER

Without getting too in-depth into Bender's atrocious ratings (60 overall fyi), I was actually a little curious why 2K felt the need to actually rip my ratings. A few ratings (Hands & Consistency) are exactly the same as mine, while many other ratings (Close, Medium, PostDef, Vertical, Potential) are increments (multiples of 5) away from mine. While it's flattering that 2K appreciates my work, they're going about it the wrong way here.

I found Bender's tendencies to be much more interesting than his actual ratings. Let's start with his shooting tendencies.

Inside 58 (15 shots)
Close 57 (2 shots)
Med 63 (7 shots)
3pt 37 (14 shots)

3pt tendency is significantly worse than the rest even though this is where most of his shots come from nowadays. Isn't 2K supposed to be working with 82games? I'd have to think that's a baldfaced lie at this point. Continuing along, I found more high quality work.

VARIOUS SHOTS
Triple Threat Shot 0
Self Post 0
Alley Oops 0

FREELANCE
Use Pick 0
Set Pick 0
Isolation 0
Use Offball Screen 0
Spot Up 0
Post Up 0

Very comprehensive, as you can see.

MARCUS LANDRY

Ha! You were expecting Landry to be added? Please. He's only been under contract with the Knicks two months longer than Bender. Check back in April. Maybe.

CHRIS HUNTER

Hooray, he's here. To be honest I'm not interested in discussing his ratings as I'd like to get started on my next update, which should be uploaded by the end of the day.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Real 2K Insider expanding to MLB coverage in 2K10

I am expecting big things out of MLB 2K10, and expect the series to have it's best title yet (which obviously isn't saying much, however I do believe the game will finally be considered playable).

I am out to show once again that my rosters will trump 2K's, as there are many players they have not updated in years. While basketball will always be my true love, my MVP Baseball 2005 rosters were vastly more popular than my NBA 2K rosters.

I recently acquired a copy of 2K9 in order to get a head start. If anyone has ratings complaints about specific players, I'd love to hear and address them.