Saturday, October 31, 2009

How to not use stats properly

A lot of people have been complaining about the shot ratings this year, especially the Close ratings. The best way to descibe close is it's the 4-14 foot range. Inside is the direct vicinity of the basket, mid-range is from the FT line out. Close is that weird inbewteen stage where you'd prefer to get closer to the basket if at all possible, and the region is staunchly guarded which makes it difficult to score there.

Since most players (especially guards) would prefer not to shoot from this range, it is common for players to have few shot attempts from this range. What that creates is a small sample size, and thus the opportunity for stats to be mishandled.


Eddie House has the following shot ratings

Inside 81
Close 50
Medium 86
3pt 87

House has 80s in all his shot ratings but the minimum 50 in his close rating. 2K Sports didn't take player history into account, which is pretty darn important when using a small sample (as it increases the pool of data to get a better idea. Most of you know this by now but I'm just laying out the details for any newcomers.)

Eddie House Close
2009: 9-30 (.300)
2008: 14-34 (.411)
2007: 12-41 (.292)
2006: 13-38 (.342)
2005: 23-43 (.534)
Total: 61-186 (.327)

What we have here is a player with a fluctuating percentage. He's as low as 29% one year and as high as 53% in another. House gets slapped with a 50, which is more due to his low sample size (as it seems 2K gave a 50 to any player with a small sample and a low percentage). Just going by this data we know House does not deserve to have the bare minimum rating of 50. I'm still collecting data for players, but it should be obvious House's numbers are better than say...


J. Jeffries
2009: 1-15 (.066)
2008: 2-12 (.166)

2007: 6-20 (.300)
2006: 7-29 (.241)
2005: 10-35 (.285)
Total: 26-111 (.234)


There's a player much more deserving of a 50.

Let's say House deserves a 55 for arguments sake. That still looks very odd next to an 81 Inside and 86 Medium. So to inspect further, let's take a look at those Inside numbers...

E. House
2009: 17-30 (.567)
2008: 12-35 (.343)
2007: 18-35 (.514)
2006: 30-67 (.448)
2005: 17-42 (.405)
Total: 94-209 (.449)

2K gave House an 81 rating because he went 17-30 over a full season. That's actually pretty pathetic when you think about it. How could they not know what a bad finisher he is? He shot 34% in a similar sample just a year prior, and has only been above 50% two times in five years. That 81 is just two points below...

J. Jeffries
2009: 92-175 (.526)
2008: 83-169 (.491)
2007: 70-126 (.556)
2006: 142-261 (.544)
2005: 171-318 (.537)
Total: 558-1049 (.531)

It should be fairly obvious which of these players is the significantly better finisher. Jeffries had a better year last year than House's last 5 seasons combined. What we see here is House's inside rating doesn't match up with his dreadful close rating.

61 inside
55 close
86 medium
87 3pt

Doesn't that look so much better? His strengths are clearly illustrated now, and we didn't even have to put any thought into it (2K hates doing that). All it took was merely analyzing readily available data.

But then, I guess a company that didn't update any FT ratings between this year and last has no use for somethng like that.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

List of the injured players

Yellow (can play through it)
SG Raja Bell: 64 (-7) Sprained Wrist, 4-6 months
SF Joe Alexander: 57 (-6) Strained Hamstring, 8-10 weeks
C Aaron Gray: 53 (-10) Shin Splints, 6-8 weeks
SF Bill Walker: 52 (-7) Sore Knee, 8-10 weeks
PF Darrell Arthur: 60 (-5) Bruised Sternum 4-6 months
SG C.J. Miles: 49 (-8) Broken Finger, 8-10 weeks
C Adonal Foyle: 50 (-7) Sore Knee, 2-4 months
SF Josh Howard: 73 (-4) Sore Wrist, 2-4 weeks
SF Tim Thomas: 52 (-7) Sore Knee, 8-10 weeks
PG Travis Diener: 57 (-4) Sprained Toe, 8-10 weeks
SF Mike Dunleavy: 56 (-9) Sore Knee, 8-10 months
PF Tyler Hansbrough: 58 (-10) Shin Splints, 2-4 months
SG Tracy McGrady: 67 (-10) Sore Knee, 10-12 months
PF Jeff Pendergraph: 59 (-4) Bruised Hip, 2-4 months
PF Antawn Jamison: 65 (-11) Seperated Shoulder, 4-6 weeks

Shouldn't anyone expected to miss months be unplayable? Like Bell and Arthur? Not that any of these guys are playing through their injuries.

Red (Unplayable)
C Jerome James: 39 (-4) Strained Achilles, 12-14 months
PF Leon Powe: 46 (-20) Torn ACL, 10-12 months
SF Kyle Korver: 48 (-13) Bone Spurs, 6-8 weeks
SG Francisco Garcia: 57 (-11) Broken Wrist, 4-6 months
C Yao Ming: 53 (-30), Broken Toe, 12-14 months
C Robin Lopez: 42 (-18), Broken Toe, 6-8 weeks
PF Kevin Love: 61 (-12), Broken Hand, 6-8 weeks
PG Patrick Mills: 46 (-23) Broken Toe, 6-8 months
SF Nicolas Batum: 54 (-10) Torn Labrum, 4-6 months
PF Brandan Wright: 55 (-10) Seperated Shoulder, 4-6 months

Why the hell is Kyle Korver in the Red while Raja Bell is in the Yellow?

Players who SHOULD be injured
PF Glen Davis (Broken Thumb, 2 months)
PF Blake Griffin (Fractured Knee, 6-8 weeks)
SF Matt Harpring (This guy is going to retire due to his injuries!)
C Eddy Curry (Torn whatever, who cares how long)
PG Stephon Marbury (Brain Damage, 10-12 months)
PG Steve Francis (Still recovering, probably retiring)
SF Wally Szczerbiak (Having surgery, probably retiring)


Side note: Bobby Jackson, Tyronn Lue, and Brent Barry join Bruce Bowen on the retired list. If only he'd get around to D-League coach Mark Madsen.

THANK YOU 2K! and OMG WHY 2K?

Finally, something legitmately cool.

I downloaded their roster and they added a feature I've been dying for, for years.

INJURIES!

Go to the Bobcats and check out Raja Bell

Raja Bell (highlighted in Yellow)
64 overall (-7)

Click his player card: Sprained wrist 4-6 months

One problem though: It seems like we can't use this feature for ourselves. Which actually sucks quite a bit, because we're

A. Now at the mercy of an entity that has proven itself incompetent on more than one occasion
B. Unable to add this to our own rosters
C. Unable to remove this if I want to say, GET THE YAO MING ACHIEVEMENT YOU IDIOTS.
D. The injuries apply to the Draft Class or all-star teams and any other teams the players appear on. So you can't even get the Yao achievement picking the all-star team or anything because he is a 53 overall now. Heck, you can't even put him in the game because he's highlighted in Red.
E. You cannot release or trade a player on the disabled list. That includes in our managed rosters. High five for putting association resrictions on NOT ASSOCIATION MODE! Some of us actually like to play without injured players!

2K Sports: 2 steps back for every step forward.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Real 2K Insider [10-27-09] OPENING NIGHT!

My latest roster file has been uploaded to 2K Share for XBOX360. Download it now!

Search for it by...
File name: Rashidi's Real 2K Insider [10-27-09] OPENING NIGHT!
Gamertag: Real 2K Insider

Don't forget to rate it! And leave a comment to let me know how I'm doing so far!

FILE DETAILS
Opening night rosters and rotations for all 30 teams. Player edits for over 100 players. Added the Nuggets to the list of completed teams (spent most of this update editing players across the league rather than focusing on a few teams). Lowered the ratings of many free agents.

One correction! Timberwolves starting rotation should be Flynn-Brewer-Wilkins-Gomes-Jefferson. I have Flynn-Brewer-Gomes-Jefferson-Hollins. News of this came right after I submitted the update.

RATING CHANGES

*Bold denotes new addition

POINT GUARD
95 – Chris Paul (+1)
89 – Deron Williams (0)
85 – Tony Parker (+1)
85 – Devin Harris (-1)
84 – Chauncey Billups (-1)

84 – Rajon Rondo (-2)
82 – Gilbert Arenas (-2)
82 – Baron Davis (0)

80 – Steve Nash (0)
80 – Jameer Nelson (+1)
80 – Jason Kidd (-1)
78 – Mo Williams (+1)
78 – Derrick Rose (-2)

77 – Andre Miller (-1)
77 - Russell Westbrook (0)
77 – Kirk Hinrich (0)
76 – Jose Calderon (+1)
76 – T.J. Ford (+1)

76 – Mike Bibby (-2) (-1 from last update)
76 – Rafer Alston (+1)
75 – Raymond Felton (0)

72 – Ty Lawson (-2)
71 – Steve Blake (-1)
70 – Chris Duhon (-2)
69 – Stephen Curry (0)
69 – Derek Fisher (-3)
68 – Tyreke Evans (-3) (due to position change)
67 – C.J. Watson (-1)
66 – Jordan Farmar (-1)
65 – Jerryd Bayless (-2) (+1 from last update)
65 – Jeff Teague (-1)
64 – Brandon Jennings (0)
64 – Anthony Carter (+3)
64 – Eddie House (+6) (+1 from last update)
64 – Toney Douglas (-1) (+1 from last update)
63 – Lester Hudson (CAP)
63 – Patrick Mills (-6) (INJURED)
62 – Rodrigue Beaubois (CAP)
60 – Speedy Claxton (-1)
58 – Acie Law (-4)

SHOOTING GUARD
97 - Kobe Bryant (0)
96 – Dwyane Wade (0)
88 – Brandon Roy (0) (+1 from last update)
83 – Joe Johnson (-1)
82 – Allen Iverson (-1)
80 – Ray Allen (0)
79 – Nate Robinson (+1)
77 – Monta Ellis (+1) (position change)
73 – Jamal Crawford (-1)
72 – J.R. Smith (+1)
71 – Larry Hughes (-2)
68 – Rudy Fernandez (0) (+1 from last update)
68 – Sasha Vujacic (+1) (-1 from last update)
67 – Shannon Brown (+1)
66 – Marco Belinelli (+1)
65 – Marquis Daniels (0)
65 – Tony Allen (0)
64 – Anthony Morrow (+4)
63 – Arron Afflalo (0)
57 – J.R. Giddens (0)
57 – Wesley Matthews (CAP)
50 – Cuttino Mobley (CAP) (INJURED/RETIRED)

SMALL FORWARD
96 – LeBron James (0)
88 – Carmelo Anthony (0)
83 – Paul Pierce (-1)
80 – Ron Artest (0)
80 – Stephen Jackson (-1) (+1 from last update)
77 – Shawn Marion (-3) (-1 from last update)
76 – Hedo Turkoglu (0)
76 – Rashard Lewis (+1)
73 – Wilson Chandler (0)
72 - Kelenna Azubuike (+1) (position change)
71 – Marvin Williams (+2)
70 – Travis Outlaw (+1)
67 – Renaldo Balkman (0)
67 – Joey Graham (-1)

67 – Maurice Evans (+1)
66 – Luke Walton (-1)
65 – Nicolas Batum (+1)
64 – Martell Webster (+4)
63 – Quentin Richardson (+1) (position change)
60 – Bill Walker (INJURED) (+1)
60 – Shawne Williams (+3)
59 – Devean George (-2)
59 – Marcus Landry (CAP)
58 – Danilo Gallinari (+2) (-1 from last update)
55 – Adam Morrison (0)

POWER FORWARD
90 – Kevin Garnett (+1)
84 – Dirk Nowitzki (+1)
84 – Chris Bosh (0)
83 – Pau Gasol (0)
82 – Amare Stoudemire (0)
82 – Carlos Boozer (-2)
79 – David West (+1)
79 – Lamar Odom (+1)
78 – LaMarcus Aldridge (0)
78 – Josh Smith (+1)
77 – Blake Griffin (+1)
76 – Zach Randolph (0)
75 – Paul Millsap (+1)
74 – Kenyon Martin (0)

74 – Al Harrington (-1)
73 – Corey Maggette (-2) (position change)
71 – Anthony Randolph (+3)
69 – Ben Wallace (-4) (position change)
67 – Brandan Wright (+2)
66 – Joe Smith (+2)
64 – Glen Davis (-1)
64 – Jared Jeffries (+1)
64 - Josh Powell (0)
64 – Marcus Haislip (CAP)
62 – Brian Cook (CAP)
61 – Juwan Howard (+4)
61 – Dante Cunningham (CAP)
61 – Jeff Pendergraph (INJURED) (-2) (-1 from last update)
61 – Serge Ibaka (CAP)
59 – Malik Allen (0)
59 – Taylor Griffin (-3)
51 – Othello Hunter (+1)
50 – Brian Scalabrine (+6)

CENTER
90 – Dwight Howard (+1)
89 – Tim Duncan (+1)
84 – Yao Ming (+1)
82 – Shaquille O’Neal (+1)

81 – Emeka Okafor (+2)
78 – Nene (+3)
76 – Andris Biedrins (+2)
76 – David Lee (-1) (position change)
76 – Al Horford (0)
75 – Andrew Bynum (+1)
75 – Greg Oden (+1)
75 – Rasheed Wallace (0)
75 – Zydrunas Ilgauskas (+2)
74 - Andrew Bogut (+3)
73 – Kendrick Perkins (+1)
71 – Marc Gasol (0)
69 – Chris Andersen (+1)
68 – Andrea Bargnani (-1)

68 – Joel Przybilla (+1)
68 - Ronny Turiaf (0)
67 – Zaza Pachulia (0)
65 – Brendan Haywood (+5)
65 – Eddy Curry (0) (-1 from last update)
64 – Kwame Brown (0) (2K finally got on the ball and edited him)
64 – Darko Milicic (+5)
64 – Shelden Williams (+3) (-1 from last update)
62 – Channing Frye (+2) (+1 from last update)
62 – Jordan Hill (0)
61 – Johan Petro (+4)
60 – Hasheem Thabeet (+3)
58 – DJ Mbenga (+6) (+1 from last update)
57 – Solomon Jones (+3)
56 – Mikki Moore (-1) (position change)
51 – Jason Collins (+1)
50 – Randolph Morris (0)

RASHIDI'S POWER RANKINGS

EAST OVERALL
87 Celtics (-1)
86 Cavaliers (+1)
81 Magic (-3) - Rashard Lewis suspended for first 10 games.
80 Hawks (0)
77 Sixers (-1)
77 Heat (0)
77 Pistons (-1)
76 Wizards (-2) - Antawn Jamison injured for 3-5 weeks.
75 Knicks (-1)
73 Raptors (0)
73 Pacers (+1)
72 Bulls (-2)
71 Bobcats (-2) - Raja Bell injured for either a week or 4 months.
70 Nets (-1)
68 Bucks (0)

WEST OVERALL
89 Lakers (+1)
85 Nuggets (+1)
82 Grizzlies (+1)
81 Spurs (+1)
81 Mavericks (-2) - Josh Howard injured the first two weeks.
81 Hornets (+2)
80 Jazz (+1)
79 Blazers (0)
78 Warriors (-1)
76 Thunder (0)
74 Suns (0)
73 Rockets (-8) - Yao/McGrady injured. You knew that.
70 Clippers (-6) - Blake Griffin injured for the first 6 weeks.
69 Wolves (-4) - Kevin Love injured for the first 6 weeks.
63 Kings (-3) - Francisco Garcia injury pushes Desmond Mason to starting duty?

OFFENSE
88 Lakers (-2)
87 Celtics (-1)
86 Raptors (+1)
85 Cavaliers (+1)
85 Grizzlies (+7) - The Iverson effect.
83 Spurs (-1)
83 Suns (+6)
82 Blazers (+4) - Losing Batum and replacing him with 3pt bomber Webster helps the offense.
82 Hawks (0)
81 Warriors (+5)
79 Jazz (-1)
77 Mavericks (-3) - Quinton Ross starting until Josh Howard gets back.
77 Heat (+3) - Beasley starting at PF over Haslem.
76 Wizards (-7) - Jamison's injury hurts.
76 Nuggets (-5) - Likewise for J.R. Smith's suspension.
76 Hornets (0)
76 Sixers (-1)
75 Magic (-6) - Will Lewis cost Orlando when it's playoff seeding time? Probably.
75 Pistons (-1)
72 Clippers (-4) - Griffin's injury puts even more pressure on Davis to return to form.
72 Thunder (0)
71 Knicks (+1)
71 Pacers (-3)
70 Nets (-1)
68 Bulls (-3) - It's gonna be a long season without Gordon.
68 Wolves (-5)- No Kevin Love means Minnesota gets to tank as planned.
64 Kings (-4) - If Desmond Mason is starting when December rolls around I'll be in my grave.
64 Bucks (-3) - Brandon Jennings starting over Ridnour will be a process.
64 Bobcats (-2) - Stephen Graham starting for Raja Bell. As if they couldn't get any worse.
61 Rockets (-16) - I mean, what do you want from a team starting Chuck Hayes at center?


DEFENSE
92 Lakers (+1)
90 Celtics
90 Nuggets (+1) - I guess losing J.R. Smith isn't all bad, eh?
86 Cavaliers (0)
81 Hawks (+1)
80 Magic (-3) - Shard replaced by Ryan Anderson. Another year Dwight has no help down low.
80 Heat (-1)
79 Sixers (+1)
79 Warriors (-1)
78 Mavericks (-2)
78 Spurs (+1)
78 Pistons (+1)
78 Hornets (-1)
77 Jazz (0)
77 Rockets (-6)
77 Grizzlies (+4)
76 Blazers (-2) - Losing Batum pushes Portland further into defensive mediocrity.
75 Knicks (0)
74 Bobcats (-5) - Losing Bell pushes Charlotte further into the lottery.
74 Nets (-1)
74 Thunder (0)
72 Bulls (-1)
71 Clippers (-3)
71 Pacers (+2)
69 Suns (-2)
68 Wizards (+4)
68 Wolves (+4)
67 Bucks (+1)
67 Raptors (0)
60 Kings (-3)

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Wait a sec, tonight's opening night?

LOL I had no idea... I thought it was tomorrow because that's when my brother told me the Knicks season opener is. I'm pissed I missed Celtics vs Cavs.

Looks like my roster is gonna come a day earlier than I thought. Look for it tonight.

EDIT: File is ready to go, but typically, the 2K servers are down. On opening night. Somebody REALLY needs to write all this stuff down and keep a record of it somewhere.