Sunday, September 9, 2012

Official NBA 2K13 Ratings

These are the default player ratings for all NBA players in NBA 2K13.  As usual, 2K has spent the summer not doing much of anything.

POINT GUARDS
94 - Chris Paul
93 - Russell Westbrook - Better than Derrick Rose. At what, exactly?
92 - Derrick Rose
90 - Deron Williams
90 - Rajon Rondo - A bit high for a guy who lead Pierce/KG/Allen to 4th worst offense)
87 - Steve Nash
86 - Tony Parker
83 - Kyrie Irving
83 - Kyle Lowry
83 - John Wall
82 - Stephen Curry
82 - Ty Lawson
82 - Chauncey Billups
82 - Jrue Holiday
80 - Jason Kidd
80 - Brandon Jennings
80 - Michael Conley
79 - Jarrett Jack
78 - Ricky Rubio
78 - Mo Williams
78 - Kemba Walker
77 - Jeremy Lin - LOLOLOLOL worse than KEMBA WALKER LOLOLOLOLOL
77 - Goran Dragic
77 - Darren Collison
77 - Nate Robinson
77 - Aaron Brooks
77 - Gilbert Arenas - He's a free agent for a reason, and the guns ain't it.
76 - Devin Harris
76 - Ramon Sessions
76 - Delonte West
75 - Isaiah Thomas - Worse than Aaron Brooks? Oh boy.
75 - Jeff Teague
75 - Mario Chalmers
75 - Jameer Nelson
75 - Jose Calderon
75 - Andre Miller
74 - D.J. Augustin
74 - Kirk Hinrich
74 - George Hill
74 - Raymond Felton
74 - Baron Davis
74 - Jonny Flynn - Signed w/ the Pistons, rated higher than Brandan Knight. Can't make this stuff up.
73 - Brandon Knight
72 - Luke Ridnour
72 - Rodrigue Beaubois
72 - Toney Douglas - Within 5 points of Jeremy Lin.  LOL.
70 - Damian Lillard - Rated lower than Toney Douglas.
70 - Jerryd Bayless
70 - Greivis Vasquez
70 - Will Bynum
70 - Ishmael Smith
69 - Chris Duhon - On the Magic roster... while Christian Eyenga is still on the Lakers.
69 - C.J. Watson
68 - Beno Udrih
68 - Keyon Dooling
68 - Jamaal Tinsley
68 - Steve Blake
68 - Patrick Mills
68 - J.J. Barea - Find me one man who thinks Barea's on the level of Steve Blake and co.
68 - Eric Maynor
67 - Reggie Jackson
67 - Norris Cole
67 - Austin Rivers
67 - Sebastian Telfair
67 - Nolan Smith
66 - Eric Bledsoe
66 - Earl Watson
66 - Darius Morris - I can't.
65 - Jimmer Fredette
65 - Kendall Marshall
65 - Ronnie Price
64 - John Lucas
64 - Shelvin Mack
62 - Tony Wroten
62 - Andrew Goudelock
62 - Cory Joseph
62 - Charles Jenkins
60 - Daniel Gibson - Worse than Goudelock and Joseph who aspire to be the next Gibson.
60 - Jeremy Pargo
59 - Josh Selby
54 - Royal Ivey
54 - A.J. Price - How many years has it been? 2K still doesn't know he can play?

SHOOTING GUARDS
93 - Dwyane Wade
93 - Kobe Bryant - Maybe three years ago. Tied w/ Wade? LOL.
87 - Manu Ginobili
86 - Monta Ellis - 0x All-Star & All-NBA, stat padder on awful high-tempo teams, yet top 25 in NBA?
85 - Joe Johnson
85 - Eric Gordon
81 - James Harden - 5 points lower than Monta Ellis?  Sad.
81 - Kevin Martin
81 - Tyreke Evans
80 - Rodney Stuckey
80 - Iman Shumpert - This is just awkward.
80 - Brandon Roy - See above.
79 - Ray Allen
79 - Louis Williams
79 - Arron Afflalo
79 - Avery Bradley
79 - Vince Carter
78 - Paul George
78 - Jamal Crawford
77 - Jason Terry - Worse than Vince Carter? Tell that to Mavs fans.
77 - Wesley Matthews
77 - O.J. Mayo
77 - Shannon Brown - As good as Jason Terry? Tell that to Suns fans.
75 - Marcus Thornton
75 - DeMar DeRozan
75 - J.R. Smith
75 - Ben Gordon - I guess 2K are the only ones that don't know Ben Gordon sucks now.
75 - Leandro Barbosa
75 - Jordan Crawford
75 - Bradley Beal
75 - Evan Turner
74 - Jason Richardson
74 - Tony Allen
74 - Ronnie Brewer
73 - Marshon Brooks
73 - Richard Hamilton
73 - Dahntay Jones
72 - Courtney Lee
72 - Nick Young
72 - Gerald Henderson
72 - Klay Thompson
71 - Brandon Rush
71 - Dion Waiters
71 - Raja Bell
71 - Alec Burks
71 - Randy Foye
71 - Jeremy Lamb
71 - Terrence Ross
71 - Landry Fields
71 - Daniel Green
70 - J.J. Redick
70 - Wesley Johnson
70 - DeShawn Stevenson - LMAO this is why I'm still around after 11 years.
70 - Keith Bogans - See above.
69 - Thabo Sefolosha - See above.
68 - Gordon Hayward - Starts at SF, listed at SG where he is behind 3 other players. Makes sense.
68 - Willie Green
68 - Jodie Meeks
68 - Corey Brewer
67 - Roger Mason
67 - Xavier Henry
67 - Jerry Stackhouse - LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
66 - Anthony Morrow
66 - Marco Belinelli
66 - Jared Cunningham
65 - Malcolm Lee
65 - Elliot Williams
65 - Mike Dunleavy - You think 2K would figure out his position after how many years?
64 - Wayne Ellington
63 - Travis Leslie

63 - Kyle Korver - Pathetic.
62 - Daequan Cook
61 - John Jenkins
61 - Dominique Jones
58 - Evan Fournier
58 - Lance Stephenson

58 - Matt Carroll

SMALL FORWARDS
98 - LeBron James
94 - Kevin Durant
92 - Carmelo Anthony - Ludicrous that he continues to be rated this high.
87 - Andre Iguodala
87 - Rudy Gay
84 - Danny Granger
83 - Luol Deng - Better than Paul Pierce? LOL
82 - Paul Pierce
81 - Gerald Wallace
81 - Caron Butler - One point behind Paul Pierce?  Butler was AWFUL last year.
80 - Wilson Chandler
79 - Shawn Marion
79 - Nicolas Batum
79 - Michael Beasley
78 - Stephen Jackson
78 - Jeff Green
77 - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
77 - Grant Hill
76 - Trevor Ariza
76 - Kawhi Leonard - Worse than Stephen Jackson? 2K wit dat name recognition.
76 - Terrence Williams - Wow.
75 - Tayshaun Prince
75 - Jared Dudley
75 - Shane Battier
75 - Gerald Green
75 - Harrison Barnes
74 - Andrei Kirilenko
74 - Chandler Parsons
74 - Corey Maggette
74 - Richard Jefferson
73 - Hedo Turkoglu
73 - Matt Barnes
73 - John Salmons
72 - Dorell Wright
71 - Danilo Gallinari - Another terrible 2K rating.  Who takes Gerald Green over Gallo?
71 - Metta World Peace
71 - Al-Farouq Aminu
70 - Chase Budinger
69 - C.J. Miles
69 - Rashard Lewis
69 - Mike Miller
69 - Quentin Richardson
69 - Martell Webster
69 - Chris Singleton
68 - Luc Mbah a Moute
68 - Francisco Garcia
68 - Carlos Delfino
67 - Gary Forbes
67 - Travis Outlaw
67 - Jimmy Butler
67 - Tobias Harris
67 - Cartier Martin - Seriously.
66 - Maurice Harkless
66 - Reggie Williams
66 - Luke Walton - You've gotta be kidding me.
65 - Marvin Williams - Worse than Luke Walton. You heard it here first folks.
65 - Jeff Taylor
65 - Tyler Honeycutt
65 - James Johnson - Will probably start, yet 4th on the depth chart.
65 - Devin Ebanks
65 - Jordan Hamilton
64 - Omri Casspi - Behind Walton on the depth chart? Only in 2K's universe.
63 - Linas Kleiza - Just won't let the Walton comps die.
63 - Austin Daye
63 - Donte Greene
60 - Quincy Pondexter
60 - Lazar Hayward
60 - Jan Vesely
59 - Dante Cunningham
59 - Luke Babbitt
59 - Shawne Williams
58 - James Jones
57 - Christian Eyenga
53 - Steve Novak - Kill yourselves, 2K Sports.

POWER FORWARDS
89 - Kevin Love
87 - Pau Gasol
87 - Josh Smith
86 - Blake Griffin
86 - LaMarcus Aldridge
85 - Dirk Nowitzki
84 - Kevin Garnett
84 - Zach Randolph
84 - Amare Stoudemire
83 - Paul Millsap
82 - Chris Bosh
82 - David Lee
80 - Serge Ibaka
79 - Luis Scola
78 - Carlos Boozer - Worse than Scola? LOL?
77 - Elton Brand
77 - Taj Gibson
77 - Antawn Jamison
76 - Kenneth Faried
76 - Kenyon Martin - Top 20 PF? That explains why he has a contract! Oh wait.
75 - Ersan Ilyasova - Worse than Antawn Jamison?
75 - Andrea Bargnani - See above.
75 - David West - See above.
75 - Thaddeus Young
75 - Thomas Robinson
75 - Carl Landry
74 - Kris Humphries - Double/double machine worse than rookie Thomas Robinson?
74 - Derrick Favors
74 - J.J. Hickson
73 - Patrick Patterson
73 - Chuck Hayes
72 - Tyrus Thomas
72 - DaJuan Blair
71 - Brandon Bass
71 - Lamar Odom
71 - Al Harrington
71 - Anthony Randolph
71 - Tyler Hansbrough
71 - Jason Maxiell
70 - Mareese Speights
70 - Darrell Arthur
70 - Udonis Haslem
70 - Jason Thompson
70 - JaJuan Johnson
70 - Epke Udoh - Better than Drew Gooden?  Gooden started all of last year!
69 - Drew Gooden
69 - Ryan Anderson - Good to see 2K still has no idea how to rate power forwards!
69 - Jared Sullinger
69 - Andrew Nicholson
69 - Derrick Williams
69 - Markieff Morris
68 - Ivan Johnson
68 - Tristan Thompson
68 - Charlie Villanueva
68 - Royce White
67 - Ed Davis
67 - Trevor Booker
67 - Channing Frye - Worse than his backup, Markieff Morris.
66 - Jonas Jerebko
66 - Chris Wilcox
66 - Boris Diaw
65 - Tiago Splitter
65 - Hakim Warrick
65 - Larry Sanders
65 - Nick Collison
64 - Gustavo Ayon
64 - Josh McRoberts
63 - Reggie Evans
63 - Marcus Morris
62 - Bismack Biyombo
62 - Lavoy Allen
62 - John Henson
62 - Samardo Samuels
62 - Trey Thompkins
61 - Arnett Moultrie
61 - Jason Smith
61 - Jeff Pendergraph
61 - Jeremy Tyler
60 - Perry Jones
59 - Terrence Jones
58 - Donatas Motiejunas
58 - Jordan Williams
56 - Jeremy Evans
54 - Luke Harangody
53 - Justin Harper
53 - Jon Brockman
51 - Vladimir Radmanovic

CENTERS
96 - Dwight Howard
87 - Tim Duncan - Finally listed at center where he belongs.
86 - Andrew Bynum
84 - Al Jefferson
83 - Marc Gasol
83 - Joakim Noah
82 - Al Horford
82 - DeMarcus Cousins
80 - Brook Lopez
80 - Greg Monroe
80 - Marcin Gortat
79 - Roy Hibbert
79 - Andrew Bogut
79 - Anthony Davis
79 - Nene
78 - Emeka Okafor
77 - Tyson Chandler - This rating is unspeakably bad. Shumpert and Kidd w/ 80s for christ's sake.
76 - Nikola Pekovic
76 - Chris Kaman
74 - Javale McGee
74 - Samuel Dalembert
73 - Anderson Varejao
73 - DeAndre Jordan
73 - Marcus Camby
72 - Kendrick Perkins
71 - Ian Mahinmi
70 - Spencer Hawes
70 - Jordan Hill
70 - Jermaine O'Neal
69 - Amir Johnson
67 - Brendan Haywood
67 - Omer Asik
66 - Tyler Zeller
65 - Enes Kanter
64 - Robin Lopez
64 - Kurt Thomas
63 - Zaza Pachulia
63 - Ronny Turiaf
62 - Byron Mullens
62 - Timofey Mozgov
61 - Joel Przybilla
61 - Nazr Mohammed
61 - Andris Biedrins
60 - Nikola Pekovic
60 - Kwame Brown - Shafted once again. He is decent.
60 - Greg Stiemsma
59 - Andre Drummond
59 - Jonas Valanciunas
59 - Meyers Leonard
59 - Cole Aldrich
58 - Aaron Gray
58 - Joel Anthony
58 - Daniel Orton
57 - Kosta Koufos
57 - Dan Gadzuric
55 - Miles Plumlee
54 - Jordan Petro
54 - Ryan Hollins
54 - Hasheem Thabeet
53 - Dexter Pittman
52 - Festus Ezeli
51 - Matt Bonner - 2K finally listsw Duncan at center, naturally leaves Bonner there (Splitter's the backup)
51 - Fab Melo
49 - Jason Collins
49 - Hamed Haddadi

TEAM RATINGS
83 76ers (87 Def, 79 Off)
68 Bobcats (66 Def, 60 Off)
76 Bucks (78 Def, 60 Off)
88 Bulls (93 Def, 80 Off)
70 Cavaliers (73 Def, 61 Off)
86 Celtics (90 Def, 85 Off)
85 Clippers (80 Def, 86 Off)
85 Grizzlies (73 Def, 84 Off)
80 Hawks (71 Def, 93 Off)
89 Heat (98 Def, 88 Off)
75 Hornets (76 Def, 66 Off)
77 Jazz (64 Def, 80 Off)
77 Kings (65 Def, 75 Off)
84 Knicks (90 Def, 76 Off)
90 Lakers (88 Def, 99 Off)
68 Magic (65 Def, 70 Off)
86 Mavericks (85 Def, 85 Off)
83 Nets (85 Def, 65 Off)
84 Nuggets (68 Def, 99 Off)
85 Pacers (89 Def, 81 Off)
76 Pistons (60 Def, 89 Off)
72 Raptors (72 Def, 60 Off)
73 Rockets (68 Def, 67 Off)
86 Spurs (82 Def, 99 Off)
81 Suns (69 Def, 93 Off)
88 Thunder (90 Def, 90 Off)
81 Timberwolves (68 Def, 95 Off)
75 Trail Blazers (72 Def, 68 Off)
83 Warriors (71 Def, 96 Off)
75 Wizards (66 Def, 60 Off)

97 Celeb Team (99 Def, 99 Off)
99 Dream Team (99 Def, 99 Off)
99 Team USA (99 Def, 99 Off)
93 Celtics [64-65] (98 Def, 86 Off)
85 Lakers [64-65] (82 Def, 84 Off)
77 Bucks [70-71] (77 Def, 72 Off)
86 Lakers [70-71] (83 Def, 88 Off)
79 Hawks [70-71] (75 Def, 79 Off)
86 Lakers [71-72] (82 Def, 90 Off)
86 Knicks [71-72] (83 Def, 85 Off)
84 76ers [76-77] (81 Def, 84 Off)
75 76ers [84-85] (78 Def, 70 Off)
82 Bucks [84-85] (83 Def, 82 Off)
75 Bulls [85-86] (74 Def, 73 Off)
90 Celtics [85-86] (84 Def, 86 Off)
77 Hawks [85-86] (78 Def, 71 Off)
84 Lakers [86-87] (82 Def, 82 Off)
87 Pistons [88-89] (84 Def, 92 Off)
83 Bulls [88-89] (79 Def, 86 Off)
82 Cavaliers [89-90] (77 Def, 88 Off)
86 Bulls [90-91] (83 Def, 87 Off)
86 Lakers [90-91] (83 Def, 87 Off)
84 Trail Blazers [90-91] (80 Def, 88 Off)
82 Warriors [90-91] (81 Def, 82 Off)
85 Bulls [92-93] (83 Def, 84 Off)
83 Hornets [92-93] (80 Def, 86 Off)
85 Rockets [93-94] (83 Def, 87 Off)
80 Nuggets [93-94] (80 Def, 77 Off)
85 Knicks [94-95] (83 Def, 86 Off)
86 Magic [94-95] (83 Def, 86 Off)
87 Bulls [95-96] (88 Def, 86 Off)
83 Supersonics [95-96] (87 Def, 79 Off)
86 Bulls [97-98] (87 Def, 86 Off)
76 Jazz [97-98] (75 Def, 74 Off)
83 Lakers [97-98] (84 Def, 82 Off)
83 Spurs [97-98] (82 Def, 84 Off)
75 76ers (78 Def, 68 Off)
81 Kings [01-02] (79 Def, 79 Off)

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

NBA 2K12 Point Guard Ratings (Final)


These are my final 2K12 ratings for all 78 NBA point guards currently in the league.  They can be found in my XBox 360 roster file found on 2K Share (search via Gamer Tag "Real 2K Insider")

If a player is not listed, it's because I have them listed at shooting guard (or they are a free agent).  Free agents will be added as they sign (I am only expecting 1-2 more based on available roster spots in the NBA).
If you weren't aware, all my ratings are compiled using stats/video/scouting reports predominantly from Basketball-Reference, MySynergySports, 82games, and DraftExpress.

The average starting PG = 77 Overall

Rating Flaws
As I've covered in the past, 2K's formula's for overall rating are far from perfect and here's the list of flaws I've got
Defensive Awareness counts way too heavily into a PG's rating.  There are very few PGs who have a high level of defensive impact. In the case of a player like Kyrie Irving who posted better offensive numbers than some of the players rated higher, his defense measures extremely poor.
Athleticism ratings, specificially Speed and Quickness increase a player too much.  Super athletes like Nate Robinson, Will Bynum, etc will rate well compared to slow-footed players like Jason Kidd and Andre Miller who can't guard quick PGs, but have the strength required to guard SGs.  2K's formula doesn't factor in that kind of versatility.
Mediocre 3pt shooters end up penalized, while at the same time 3pt Specialists like Steve Blake, Daniel Gibson, Derek Fisher, etc end up getting penalized even harder for their lack of passing ability.

Bear in mind that all ratings will change as the 2012-13 season progresses.  Young players generally improve, older players generally regress, players gain/lose opportunities due to injuries, while the added variable of the post-lockout improvement for a number of players who weren't ready for the shortened 2012 season may end up being a factor (Knicks fans and Raymond Felton can only hope).

INJ = Injured, w/ estimated return date.
NGC = Non-Guaranteed Contract (could be cut during training camp)
R = Rookie

SUPERSTARS
94 - Chris Paul
92 - Derrick Rose (INJ - ETA March 2013)

PERENNIAL ALL-STARS
86 - Russell Westbrook
86 - Rajon Rondo

ALL-STAR CALIBER
84 - Steve Nash
83 - Deron Williams
82 - Tony Parker
82 - Brandon Jennings
81 - Jeremy Lin
81 - Ty Lawson
80 - Louis Williams

QUALITY STARTERS & ELITE SIXTH MEN
79 - Kyrie Irving
79 - Kyle Lowry
78 - Stephen Curry
78 - Michael Conley
77 - Isaiah Thomas
77 - Goran Dragic
77 - John Wall
77 - Jrue Holiday
76 - Nate Robinson
76 - Jarrett Jack

STARTING CALIBER & QUALITY RESERVE
74 - Jerryd Bayless
74 - George Hill
74 - Darren Collison
73 - Ramon Sessions
73 - Jeff Teague
73 - Kemba Walker
73 - Greivis Vasquez
73 - Raymond Felton
72 - Jose Calderon
72 - Devin Harris
72 - Delonte West
72 - Ricky Rubio
72 - John Lucas
71 - Rodrigue Beaubois
71 - J.J. Barea
71 - Mario Chalmers
71 - D.J. Augustin
71 - Aaron Brooks
71 - Jason Kidd
70 - Andre Miller
70 - Jameer Nelson
70 - Mo Williams
70 - Sebastian Telfair
70 - Eric Bledsoe
70 - Will Bynum

SECOND STRING & QUALITY THIRD STRING 
69 - Luke Ridnour
69 - Beno Udrih
69 - Brandon Knight
68 - C.J. Watson
68 - Damian Lillard (R)
67 - Kirk Hinrich
67 - Eric Maynor
66 - Shelvin Mack
65 - Jimmer Fredette
65 - A.J. Price
65 - Chris Duhon

THIRD STRING
64 - Charles Jenkins
64 - Earl Watson
64 - Jamaal Tinsley
64 - Daniel Gibson (NGC)
64 - Norris Cole
64 - Reggie Jackson
64 - Kendall Marshall (R)
64 - Tyshawn Taylor (R)
63 - Toney Douglas
63 - Pablo Prigioni (R)
63 - Marquis Teague (R)
62 - Nolan Smith
62 - Julyan Stone (NGC)
61 - Jerome Dyson (NGC)
61 - Jeremy Pargo

NBA FRINGE
59 - Courtney Fortson (NGC)
59 - Steve Blake
59 - Darius Morris
58 - Donald Sloan (NGC)
57 - Cory Joseph
57 - Josh Selby

I might consider adding player "Styles" to this post to dress it up a bit and make it a bit more comprehensive.  All-Around, Scoring, Pass First, 3pt Specialist, Defensive, and Athletic are the styles a PG can be given.  TBQH "Pass First" shouldn't even be a style and should really be titled "Floor General". It's an out-dated term that is more derogatory than complimentary nowadays. Chris Paul and Kendall Marshall are both "pass first" players but CP3 averages 20 points because he can actually get his shot off AND make it whereas Marshall or Chris Duhon cannot.  But I digress.

I have not decided which position will be the next I finish off, nor when that release will be.  It primarily depends on the free agent market, as there are still a bunch of players at each position that are unsigned.  The center market is probably the next-closest to being dried up, so don't be surprised to see that next.


Tuesday, July 24, 2012

NBA 2K12 Contested Shot Tendencies

I was recently asked (by someone important) to dissect Contested Shot Tendencies (herefore known as CS) for a roster.  This is generally a tendency that I leave alone, but it is at least worth finding out whether that's the right thing to do or not.

"Contested Shot" Tendency is the tendency that determines whether a player will "contest" a shot (i.e. attempt a block).  The direct gameplay effect is how aggressive the CPU's defense will be on attempted shots (which has both positive and negative repercussions).

The highest CS tendencies belong to
99: Tyrus Thomas, Larry Sanders, Epke Udoh, Tristan Thompson, JaVale McGee, Serge Ibaka, Hasheem Thabeet
98: Taj Gibson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Chris Andersen, Darko Milicic, D.J. Mbenga
97: DeAndre Jordan, Andrew Bynum, Andrew Bogut, Jeremy Tyler, Lou Amundson, Dominic McGuire, Hamady N'Diaye
96: Bismack Biyombo, Dwyane Wade, Joel Anthony, Francisco Garcia, Patrick Patterson, Ronny Turiaf
95: Jordan Hill, Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert, Amir Johnson, Hamed Haddadi, Derrick Caracter
94: Jeremy Evans
93: Samuel Dalembert, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Marcus Camby, Amare Stoudemire, Jermaine O'Neal
92: Wilson Chandler
91:
90: DeSagana Diop, Travis Leslie, Tony Allen, Chris Kaman, Kevin Seraphin, Ben Wallace

Only a select few players were not centers or power forwards.  There are no point guards who crack the list.  The SG/SF who do crack the list are known for their shot blocking.  I fully expected this.

Most of these tendencies pass the eye test.  I am not going to nitpick whether Samuel Dalembert deserves 93 when Amir Johnson has 95.  That is just a waste of time to me.  Instead, let's look for players whose tendencies stand out as "bad".

Patrick Patterson (96) and Jordan Hill (95) were the first ones that caught my eye.  Last year, both players were part of the 2011 Houston Rockets that lost center Yao Ming. Patterson posted a respectable 3.0 BLK% as a rookie, while Hill posted 3.2% in his sophomore season.  Neither player's block rating is all that spectacular.  Instead, the tendency signifies their role as weak-side shot blocker with 6'6" Chuck Hayes manning the middle (a role they were not exactly suited for, given their abilities (ratings).

In 2012, the team added Samuel Dalembert, a bonafide shot blocking center.  Patterson's BLK% dropped to 1.8% while Hill's rose to 3.6%.  Patterson got most of his minutes next to the shot blocker, while Hill spent most of his minutes backing up Dalembert (and thus, continuing to act as a rim defender while in the lineup).  It would seem that the prudent thing to do would be to reduce Patterson's CS tendency because his defensive role changed, and isn't nearly as aggressive contesting shots.

As an aside, I would like to reiterate that a high block rate =/= good defense.  Serge Ibaka lead the league in blocks by a large margin, but is one of the league's most overrated defensive players.  Ibaka gets bullied one on one, off the dribble or in the post, which puts him in league with many other "blocks specialists", namely JaVale McGee, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Darko Milicic, etc.  I.E. all the players who have these absurdly high CS tendencies.

Tyson Chandler on the other hand was Defensive Player of the Year (was runner up in 2011) and only has 60 CST.  Tyson is a great defensive player because he is extremely agile making rotations, a quality post defender, and doesn't just try to block every single shot (consequently, not picking up a ton of fouls either).  Not coincidentally, Tyson Chandler is also an excellent rebounder.  Players who go for lots of blocks have a tendency to not be great rebounders, partly because they are taking themselves out of rebound position when they leap for blocks.

Serge Ibaka
2010: 5.5 BLK%, 21.9 DRB%
2011: 6.5 BLK%, 20.8 DRB%
2012: 9.8 BLK%, 18.2 DRB%

Ibaka's rebound percentage has dropped as his blocks have continued to rise.  Conversely on the other side of the extreme, players like David Lee and Kevin Love are fantastic rebounders who rarely block shots (or even attempt to do so).  It's the players like Dwight Howard who can do BOTH that are truly special (obviously).

With this in mind, I've noticed that NBA 2K12 has a problem with rebounding.  It is too easy to get defensive boards, as offensive players are usually taken out of the play via animation (whereas in real life, it is not uncommon for a player to grab his own miss at the rim).  I often give up offensive boards to the CPU however, because I frequently contest shots (and I imagine most users are like me).

I would like to theorize that raising CS across the board would increase the number of offensive rebound opportunities as the CPU will be out of position more frequently. I also theorize that a CS increase would lead to more foul calls for the CPU, as the CPU for the most part is only getting called for fouls in the act of shooting.  More contests SHOULD lead to more fouling opportunities.

In my roster the average CS tendency by position is
PG: 25
SG: 32
SF: 46
PF: 50
C: 74

There is a huge gap between PF and C, as well as the gap between SG and SF.  Obviously there are more shot blockers as we go up the line, but are some players simply rated too low?

The lowest CS tendencies belong to
0: Avery Bradley, Sasha Pavlovic, Jeremy Pargo, Ishmael Smith, Sundiata Gaines, Kenneth Faried, Raymond Felton, Renaldo Balkman, Sherron Collins, Carlos Arroyo, Willie Warren, Pape Sy
1:
2:
3: Stephen Graham
4: D.J. Augustin, Isaiah Thomas, Jameer Nelson, A.J. Price, Tony Parker, Patrick Mills, J.J. Barea
5: Reggie Williams, John Lucas, Jordan Hamilton, Daequan Cook, Terrico White, Antonio Daniels, Marcus Banks, Andy Rautins
6: Jodie Meeks, Chris Paul, Mike Miller
7: Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, Toney Douglas, Steve Blake, J.J. Redick, Ty Lawson, Gary Neal, Steve Nash
8: Richard Hamilton, Keyon Dooling, Joe Johnson, Iman Shumpert, Wayne Ellington
9: Corey Maggette, Jon Brockman, Chris Duhon

Predictably most of the players on this list are guards.  Kenneth Faried's presence on this list is one hell of a doozy though, considering his 3.6 BLK%.  That's a major oversight by 2K and probably a typo that was made when they were coming up with tendencies last summer (there's simply no other way to explain it).

It's also a bit telling that no players have 1-3 CS (Edit: only Stephen Graham in the free agent pool has 3).  If that's the case, no player should have 0 either.  Avery Bradley posted 0.0 BLK% in scant playing time as a rookie, but bumped that up to a very respectable 0.7 BLK% (for a guard), and he is a highly regarded defender.  Something tells me he didn't get that rep by not contesting shots!

Raymond Felton (0.4 BLK%) is likewise regarded as a solid defensive player, so what is it that's separating him from PGs like D.J. Augustin, Isaiah Thomas, J.J. Barea, John Lucas, Ty Lawson, guys who are all under 6 feet?

------------------------------------

My first instinct, using all of this information, would be to change a few player's CS tendencies, rather than making sweeping changes to the system 2K has in place.  Aside from a few examples here and there, most everything has checked out.  However I'd like to hear other's thoughts on the matter, as I don't want to gloss over something that I shouldn't be.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

NBA 2K12 simulation of the NBA 2012-13 season

Simulation run under the following specs
My roster as of 7-21-12 (all player ratings edited, most player tendencies edited)
All teams were human controlled to avoid CPU trades, signings, extensions, or any other tom-foolery.
No injuries, team chemistry, player roles, or progressive fatigue.
CPU re-does rotations upon season start and readjusts throughout the season without me asking for it. Hence, I didn't waste my time adjusting the rotations at any point.

EAST STANDINGS
1. Heat (65-17)
2. Hawks (56-26)
3. Celtics (55-27)
4. Pacers (46-36) - Would rank 6th except they won Central Division
5. Raptors (54-28)
6. Sixers (48-34)
7. Bulls (44-38) - Game automatically moves Rose back to lineup, IRL out until Feb/Mar
8. Knicks (43-39)
9. Nets (42-40)
10. Bucks (38-44)
11. Magic (33-49)
12. Cavaliers (30-52)
13. Pistons (29-52)
14. Wizards (24-58)
15. Bobcats (15-67)

Hawks should be a surprise team (lost Horford for much of 2012), but IDK about better than the Celtics.
Raptors went through the roof with Kyle Lowry unleashed.  Valanciunas also an upgrade over Aaron Gray.  Don't like this, result but they should be playoff contenders.
Even with a healthy Rose, the Bulls have downgraded their bench to this point.  I should note I still have Omer Asik as a Bull, rather than a Rocket.

WEST STANDINGS
1. Thunder (62-20)
2. Lakers (51-31)
3. Mavericks (48-34)
4. Clippers (44-38)
5. Spurs (44-38)
6. Warriors (44-38)
7. Timberwolves (42-40)
8. Grizzlies (42-40)
9. Jazz (38-44)
10. Hornets (37-45)
11. Suns (34-48)
12. Nuggets (32-50)
13. Kings (32-50)
14. Trail Blazers (29-53)
15. Rockets (29-53)

Warriors surely a surprise to some, but shouldn't be if Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry stay healthy.
2K's sim engine hates the Nuggets, who have incredible depth but lack stars.
Wolves record is surely contingent on Brandon Roy being able to carry a heavy load, which the CPU auto-plugs him into.

Aside from 3 teams per conference, everything meeting expectations.

EAST ALL-STARS
C: Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe
PF: Nene
SF: LeBron James, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala
SG: Dwyane Wade, Monta Ellis
PG: Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Kyle Lowry, John Wall

WEST ALL-STARS
C: Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson
PF: Kevin Love, Kenneth Faried
SF: Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay
SG: Kobe Bryant
PG: Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry

In what is very telling about the direction of the league, 9 PGs were named all-stars against 3 SGs.
Tough to believe Faried (14/10) was selected over Dirk and Aldridge (both 19/7) .  Someone tell the 2K sim engine that points matter more than rebounds?

AWARDS
MVP: LeBron James
RoY: Anthony Davis
SMY: Jeff Teague - CPU moves higher-rated Lou Williams into starting lineup (Lou's my pick IRL)
DPY: Dwight Howard
MIP: Greivis Vasquez - Logical pick as he's set for huge PT increase w/ Jarrett Jack out of way.
CoY: Erik Spoelstra

ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM
Russell Westbrook (G), Dwyane Wade (G), LeBron James (F), Kevin Durant (F), Dwight Howard (C)

ALL-NBA SECOND TEAM
Chris Paul (G), Derrick Rose (G), Josh Smith (F), Andre Iguodala (F), Tim Duncan (C)

ALL-NBA THIRD TEAM
Kyle Lowry (G), Deron Williams (G), Paul Pierce (F), Carmelo Anthony (F), Kevin Garnett (C)

ALL-DEFENSIVE FIRST TEAM
Dwyane Wade (G), Paul George (G), LeBron James (F), Josh Smith (F), Dwight Howard (C)

ALL-DEFENSIVE SECOND TEAM
Kyle Lowry (G), Chris Paul (G), Kenneth Faried (F), Paul Millsap (F), Anthony Davis (C)

ALL-ROOKIE FIRST TEAM
Anthony Davis (C), Damian Lillard (G), Dion Waiters (G), Bradley Beal (G), Thomas Robinson (F)

Davis: 11.4 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.9 bpg
Lillard: 15.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.0 bpg
Waiters: 14.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.1 bpg
Beal: 15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg
Robinson: 9.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.5 bpg

ALL-ROOKIE SECOND TEAM
Meyers Leonard (C), Harrison Barnes (F), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (F), Royce White (F), Jeremy Lamb (G)

Leonard: 7.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.3 spg, 1.1 bpg
Barnes: 13.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.2 bpg
Kidd-Gilchrist: 9.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg
White: 6.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.9 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.2 bpg
Lamb: 11.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.7 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.2 bpg

FIRST ROUND
4-0 Thunder (1) Grizzlies (8)
4-3 Clippers (4) Spurs (5)
1-4 Mavericks (3) Warriors (6)
2-4 Lakers (2) Wolves (7)
4-3 Heat (1) Knicks (8)
4-1 Pacers (4) Raptors (5)
2-4 Celtics (3) Sixers (6)
2-4 Hawks (2) Bulls (7)

SECOND ROUND
4-3 Thunder (1) Clippers (4)
4-3 Warriors (6) Wolves (7)
4-1 Heat (1) Pacers (4)
4-3 Sixers (6) Bulls (7)

CONFERENCE FINALS
4-1 Thunder (1) Warriors (6)
4-0 Heat (1) Sixers (6)

NBA FINALS
4-2 Heat (1) Thunder (1)

FINALS MVP
LeBron James: 24.9 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 2.0 spg, 0.5 bpg

RETIREMENTS
Grant Hill*
Jamaal Tinsley
Marcus Camby*
#Jason Kidd*
Kurt Thomas
#Steve Nash*
Vince Carter*
Jerry Stackhouse

*Denotes player under multi-year deal who would NEVER retire in real-life without an injury.
#Denotes player inducted into Hall of Fame

2013 KEY FREE AGENT CLASS (Ratings Post-Progression)
PG: Chris Paul (94), Ty Lawson (84), Stephen Curry (83), Brandon Jennings (83), Darren Collison (78), Jrue Holiday (78), Jarrett Jack (77)
SG: James Harden (86), Manu Ginobili (82), Tyreke Evans (80), DeMar DeRozan (76)
SF: Chase Budinger (73)
PF: Paul Millsap (84), Serge Ibaka (81), David West (77), Elton Brand (77)
C: Marcin Gortat (84), Nikola Pekovic (79)

Saturday, May 5, 2012

NBA 2K12 simulation of the 2012 Playoffs

I am running a simulation of the 2012 NBA Playoffs because I realize the playoffs are underway and I still haven't don't done one yet.  My ratings and tendencies are not 100% complete, but the ratings SHOULD be about 95% accurate for most players.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

1. Spurs (Ginobili 86, Duncan 82, Parker 82)
8. Jazz (Millsap 85, Jefferson 82, Harris 76)

Real Life: I expect the Spurs to sweep the Jazz.  Talent, experience, and coaching are on their side. I can easily see the Spurs going to the Finals and winning it all this year, as a sort of last hurrah for the Spurs aging core.
2K12: Spurs win series 4-3.

Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich's game management simply does not translate to the video game world.  2K does not take fatigue into account w/ it's simulations.  For example, every Spur plays 25 QUALITY well-rested, non-fatigued minutes.  A player who plays 40+ minutes is inevitably going to take SOME plays off to conserve their energy, but the simulation engine does not take this into account.  Thus, the Spurs depth hurts them in team rating and simulations. The game would rather see 36 minutes for Ginobili and 12 minutes for Daniel Green.  In real life that would translate to 10 extra, less effective minutes for Ginobili and Green never able to get into a groove.  Such are the flaws we have to live with here.  Hopefully the Spurs do not get blown away in round two (which a close series w/ a clearly inferior Jazz team might imply).

4. Grizzlies (Gay 84, Randolph 84, Gasol 81)
5. Clippers (Paul 94, Griffin 85, Jordan 77)

Real Life: This is the closest series in the playoffs and most people think it will go 7 games.  Chris Paul is the series' best player but the Grizzlies are the deeper team.  Memphis is better defensively, and that is what wins in the playoffs, so I am going w/ Memphis in 7 (where they will have home court advantage).
2K12: Clippers win series 4-3

Blake Griffin goes absolutely insane in game 7, scoring 39 points (15-21 FG, 1-1 3pt, 8-18 FT), to go with 11 boards and 3 assists.  Chris Paul only gets 19 minutes due to foul trouble, my most hated part of 2K's simulation engine.  Paul has very low foul tendencies, and stars, especially star guards rarely ever get into foul trouble.  A star guard playing < 20 minutes in a playoff game is unheard of.  Hopefully 2K is able to fix this because I feel like it invalidates simulation results to a degree.  It breaks the 4th wall of gaming and reminds us this is NOT the NBA.

3. Lakers (Bryant 88, Bynum 85, Gasol 84)
6. Nuggets (Lawson 80, Gallinari 79, Faried 75)

Real Life: The Lakers have the clear talent edge, but the Nuggets are deep enough to steal a game or two.  If the Nuggets manage to win game 4 I think this series will go 7 games because I will then have serious questions about the Lakers ability to win game 6 in Denver, whose running style and depth best suit their natural (literally, due to high altitude) home court advantage.
2K12: Lakers win series 4-3

Kobe scores 44 points in game seven (17-26 FG, 5-9 3pt, 5-8 FT), outdueling Andre Miller (30 points, 11-21 FG, 8-8 FT, 31 mins off bench).  Miller's role increasing thanks to Ty Lawson getting 4 fouls in 22 minutes.  I cannot emphasize enough just how annoying the box scores can be.

2. Thunder (Durant 93, Westbrook 87, Harden 85)
7. Mavericks (Nowitzki 82, Terry 80, Marion 75)

Real Life: Unlike last season, Dallas doesn't have a prayer against OKC.  They lost Tyson Chandler, replacing him w/ Lamar Odom who was eventually kicked off the team.  Dirk and Kidd are a step slower. Vince Carter hasn't replaced the specialization that J.J. Barea and Peja Stojakovic brought to the table. All one can really do is tip hats to the Thunder and hope the team can add the missing pieces it opted not to bring back last summer.
2K12: Thunder win series 4-1

Mavericks won game 3 during the simulation.  Dirk had 30 points on 5-7 FG, 20-24 FT, a nice allusion to last season's 48 point on 15 shot outburst.  That might be what it will take for the Mavericks to win game 4 and stave off elimination.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

1. Bulls (Noah 79, Boozer 79, Deng 77)
8. Sixers (Iguodala 84, Brand 80, Williams 80)

Real Life: With Derrick Rose out of the picture, these teams are very evenly matched.  The Bulls still have more talent on paper given that Carlos Boozer is a better scorer than anyone on the Sixers, Joakim Noah a fantastic defensive player, and Luol Deng who was named an all-star this year (albeit inexplicably). In reality however Rip Hamilton, Luol Deng, and Watson/Lucas is a terrible offensive perimeter and the Sixers should have no problem stopping them and creating deadly transition opportunities. I do believe the Sixers as a whole are a better team than anyone gives them credit for, and statistically are the best #8 seed in history.  Their point differential & strength of schedule ranked 3rd best in the east, and their defense (99.3 Pts per 100 possessions, ranking 3rd) was nearly as good the Celtics (98.2) and Bulls (98.3).  They SHOULD win this series with Rose out of the picture, but the Bulls are definitely good enough to make it close.
2K12: Bulls win series 4-2

For the record, I did not have Rose active for game 1 of the series, so that is 4 games without Rose the Bulls were able to win.  John Lucas was a boss in the series and might as well have been Rose, averaging 19.4 points (22 in the wins).

4. Hawks (Smith 84, Johnson 82, Teague 75)
5. Celtics (Pierce 84, Rondo 84, Garnett 83)

Real Life: Al Horford missed most of the season for Atlanta. Then they get to the playoffs and Zaza Pachulia gets hurt and now have to start Jason Collins (and not because they need someone to foul Dwight Howard).  Now they are undersized while matched up with the worst rebounding team in the league.  They've fought through two overtime games but have fallen short in both.  The series has been close and Hawks fans will surely be left thinking "What IF?" for the next six months.
2K12: Celtics win series 4-1

I didn't injury Ray Allen for games 1 and 2 or Josh Smith for game 3, or suspend Rondo for game 2.  The series just wasn't close as the Celtics were +81 over the 5 games (16.2 per), Kevin Garnett simply too much for Jason Collins and Ivan Johnson.

3. Pacers (Granger 82, Hibbert 81, West 79)
6. Magic (Anderson 75, Richardson 73, Turkoglu 71)

Real Life: Magic so outmatched without Dwight it's not even funny. Indiana will have spent all it's playoff road games in Florida this year and got to bask in some nice weather before the summer officially starts.  Lucky bastards.
2K12: Pacers win series 4-0

Nothing to really say except the Pacers really should have swept the Magic in reality.

2. Heat (James 99, Wade 94, Bosh 81)
7. Knicks (Anthony 85, Chandler 79, Stoudemire 79)

Real Life: The Heat are on a fast track back to the NBA Finals.  The Bulls were their only realistic competition, and that went right out the window with Rose's injury.  Knicks fans who have been dying to face Miami and show just how competitive they could be are holding their tails right now.
2K12: Heat win series 4-1

The Knicks were able to win game 4.  Let's see if they can do it in real life (and end the NBA record for longest playoff losing streak at 13 games)!  Worth noting that I did not injure Amare for the series as he intends to play game 4.  That of course will be a factor in whether or not the Knicks can win game 4 or get swept in Madison Square Garden.

SECOND ROUND

1. Spurs (Ginobili 86, Duncan 82, Parker 82)
5. Clippers (Paul 94, Griffin 85, Jordan 77)

2K12: Clippers win series 4-2

The Spurs won the first two games but then lost the next four as Chris Paul simply entered god mode (certainly possible, as he would be the best player in the series).  Unfortunately, it's difficult to quantify how much of this was due to 2K's simulation engine being all "hey full strength Paul/Griffin are facing Gary Neal and Matt Bonner!"

2. Thunder (Durant 93, Westbrook 87, Harden 85)
3. Lakers (Bryant 88, Bynum 85, Gasol 84)

2K12: Thunder win series 4-1

A lot of fans are waiting for this series.  It wasn't close in simulation, and I suspect it won't be in real life. Kobe and Westbrook can match each other chuck for chuck, which really makes this series about Durant/Harden vs Gasol/Bynum.  One caveat with these results is I forgot to reactivate Metta World Peace.  Because his timely reactivation depends on how many games the Lakers play in the Nuggets series, I'm hopeful that it wasn't too big of an issue.  It's not as if he plays a series-changing role on the team anyway.  His presence probably means OKC takes the series in 6.

1. Bulls (Noah 79, Boozer 79, Deng 77)
5. Celtics (Pierce 84, Rondo 84, Garnett 83)

2K12: Celtics win series 4-3

Chicago shows their defensive resiliency but ultimately come up short in game 7 on their home court.  John Lucas leads with 15 points, while Boozer, Deng, and Noah fail to crack double figures.  Don't see it happening in real life, but it certainly COULD, and would be fantastic drama if it did.

2. Heat (James 99, Wade 94, Bosh 81)
3. Pacers (Granger 82, Hibbert 81, West 79)

2K12: Pacers win series 4-3

I have half a mind to rage-quit this post.  I know you're all dying to know though...

LeBron Pts-Reb-Ast
Game 1: 20-8-5 (7-18 FG) - 10 point win
Game 2: 15-11-8 (5-22 FG) - 19 point loss, outscored 29-9 in 4th quarter
Game 3: 34-8-4 (13-20 FG) - 2 point loss
Game 4: 43-8-3 (16-28 FG) - 4 point win
Game 5: 46-10-8 (15-27 FG) - 21 point win
Game 6: 26-14-5 (10-27 FG) - 6 point loss
Game 7: 40-11-2 (14-25 FG) - 6 point loss, at home

Aside from game 2, LeBron did not choke.  It looks like West/Hibbert just straight abused Haslem/Bosh. Which I suppose COULD happen, but uh, enough to go 3-2 w/ LeBron averaged 37.8 points  from games 3-7?  Oh 2K.

CONFERENCE FINALS

2. Thunder (Durant 93, Westbrook 87, Harden 85)
5. Clippers (Paul 94, Griffin 85, Jordan 77)

2K12: Clippers win series 4-2

I am now seeking anger management.  The Clippers without Caron Butler were able to beat Kevin Durant and the Thunder.  Russell Westbrook scored 54 points in game 1 (23-30 FG, 1-2 3PT, 7-11 FT) and now that I think about it, I can't recall ever getting a 50 point game in a simulation.

...And my jaw drops.

Kevin Durant scored 71 points in game 3 (22-34 FG, 3-7 3PT, 24-28 FT), eclipsing Michael Jordan's playoff record of 63.

...which brings me to my original question... how the hell did the Clippers win this series????? (aside: checking Durant's game log, it appears he had a 55 point game vs Dallas in game 4).  I guess the answer is OKC's big three never got any help, as no other player scored in double figures for the team.  On the Clippers end Paul/Griffin were routinely huge and got solid contributions from Nick Young, Mo Williams, Randy Foye, even Eric Bledsoe.  I still don't buy the results AT ALL though.

Durant ends the playoffs with a scoring average of 37.5.

3. Pacers (Granger 82, Hibbert 81, West 79)
5. Celtics (Pierce 84, Rondo 84, Garnett 83)

2K12: Celtics win series 4-2

Well, that was boring and predictable.  I pray this doesn't happen in real life.  I mean, I don't mind actually if the Celtics beat the Heat and go to the Finals.  I just can't imagine the NBA being a happy place if THIS is our Eastern Conference Finals matchup.

NBA FINALS

5. Clippers (Paul 94, Griffin 85, Jordan 77)
5. Celtics (Pierce 84, Rondo 84, Garnett 83)

2K12: Celtics win series 4-0

This is certainly an interesting result and one that I had never come across in prior simulations (it is usually Heat vs Thunder in Association modes).  It's a bit ridiculous to me that the Clippers can overcome Kevin Durant in Jordan mode just to get swept by an old team (like the Spurs, who the Clippers beat in round two). 

Overall, I was pretty happy with the results until everything just fell apart with the Heat/Pacer series.  Oh well.  Just remember if this happens in reality, you heard it here first.