Real 2K Insider is breaking down the NBA 2K12 ratings one step further, now sorting them by position and seeing if we can learn anything (not to mention see who the worst rating offenders are). As I've mentioned in other posts, 2K has changed up their ratings formula. More on that in the second half of this post, where I list the rating changes and their effects on the much maligned Overall rating.
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POINT GUARD RATINGS
TOP 1-10
93 - Chris Paul
92 - Derrick Rose
90 - Deron Williams
88 - Russell Westbrook
85 - Rajon Rondo
84 - Steve Nash
82 - John Wall
80 - Stephen Curry
80 - Tony Parker
79 - Chauncey Billups
Aside from John Wall (who was closer to to 7th best rookie than he was to 7th best PG), I don't really have any complaints here. 2K typically does an okay job of rating their star players - more often than not they're the only ones that get any sort of attention. Everyone of these players saw multiple revisions throughout the year, which is more than one can say about the players towards the bottom of the list.
TOP 11-20
79 - Jrue Holiday
78 - Devin Harris
78 - Brandon Jennings
77 - Michael Conley
77 - Jason Kidd
77 - Ty Lawson
77 - Gilbert Arenas
76 - Kyle Lowry
75 - Raymond Felton
75 - Darren Collison
In reality, Gilbert Arenas isn't even in the top half of BACKUPS anymore, much less the top half of starters. Instead of improving in distraction free Orlando he put up a dreadful 8.6 PER, and his disappearing act was the main reason Orlando flopped in the first round. He can't guard the position, was never any good at setting up teammates, and this was BEFORE injuries ravaged his legs. He is DONE.
TOP 21-30
75 - Aaron Brooks
74 - Jameer Nelson
74 - Mo Williams
74 - Louis Williams
74 - Rodney Stuckey
74 - Nate Robinson
73 - Baron Davis
72 - Ramon Sessions
72 - D.J. Augustin
72 - Earl Boykins
Nate Robinson, Ramon Sessions, and Earl Boykins are top 30 NBA point guards. These guys are THIRD STRINGS on their own teams.
TOP 30-40
72 - Kirk Hinrich
72 - George Hill
71 - Andre Miller
70 - Jonny Flynn
69 - Jose Calderon
69 - Delonte West
69 - Toney Douglas
69 - T.J. Ford
69 - Will Bynum
69 - Ishmael Smith
Jonny Flynn was absolute GARBAGE for Minnesota last season, contributing heavily to their 65 loss season. He is a crappier, smaller version of Jerryd Bayless when healthy. In the world of 2K, he's an alternative to Andre Miller or Jose Calderon.
Ishmael Smith. I don't need to say anything else.
TOP 41-50
68 - Mario Chalmers
68 - Luke Ridnour
67 - Ricky Rubio
67 - Derek Fisher
67 - Keyon Dooling
67 - Chris Duhon
66 - Beno Udrih
65 - J.J. Barea
65 - Jerryd Bayless
65 - Jarrett Jack
Udrih. Barea. Bayless. Jack. Worse than Chris Duhon. In stores October 4th.
TOP 51-60
65 - C.J. Watson
65 - Eric Bledsoe
64 - Steve Blake
64 - Eric Maynor
63 - Jeff Teague
63 - Jordan Farmar
63 - Goran Dragic
63 - Earl Watson
63 - Sebastian Telfair
63 - Antonio Daniels
Let's pretend for a moment that Eric Maynor, Jeff Teague, Jordan Farmar, and Goran Dragic didn't play AT ALL over the last two years. In other words, pretend that they're Antonio Daniels.
TOP 61-70
63 - Sherron Collins
63 - Eugene Jeter
62 - Marcus Banks
62 - Patrick Mills
62 - Ronnie Price
61 - Jannero Pargo
61 - Daniel Gibson
61 - Carlos Arroyo
61 - Avery Bradley
61 - Eddie House
I think it's a nice touch that Sherron Collins is rated equally to the rest of the players in the top 60.
Daniel Gibson might have played as many minutes this season as the rest of these players COMBINED.
TOP 71-80
60 - Mike Bibby
60 - Sundiata Gaines
60 - Zabian Dowdell
60 - Armon Johnson
59 - Acie Law
58 - Shaun Livingston
58 - Willie Warren
57 - Ben Uzoh
56 - Jeremy Lin
55 - Mustafa Shakur
Mike Bibby is apparently not a top 70 NBA point guard. I am sure the Heat would have gone to the Finals with Jeremy Lin as their starting PG. I personally can't wait until the rookies come in and knock Bibby down another 10 spots.
It's always amusing to see a player with a 3 year, 10 million dollar contract (Livingston) surrounded by D-Leaguers. 2K Sports calls this "business as usual."
TOP 81-91
55 - Greivis Vasquez
55 - Lester Hudson
54 - Luther Head
53 - Anthony Carter
53 - Chris Quinn
52 - A.J. Price
51 - Royal Ivey
50 - John Lucas
50 - Orien Greene
50 - Mario West
48 - Pape Sy
A.J. Price has been the Pacers backup PG for two years now. Considering the last two PGs on this list aren't PGs, can someone let the Pacers know they've been using the 5th worst PG in the entire league all this time? No wonder T.J. Ford hates it there in Indiana.
Can somebody let the Spurs know that they got lit up by the #81 PG in the league?
Nothing new here. The players with the worst ratings are still the same as last year... and the year before that... and the year before that...
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RATING CHANGES
I uncovered in a previous post that the vast majority of players (perhaps 99% of them, from the looks of it) ONLY had their shot ratings adjusted. Since those were conveniently the only ratings shown in the ratings video, this makes it much easier to tell why players went up and down.
I implemented the shot rating changes into 2K's final 2K11 roster to see how the player's overall rating was affected. This helped me see how 2K's Overall formula has changed.
POINT GUARD FORMULA CHANGES
2K Sports (finally) started using HoopData for their shooting stats. 2K used "At Rim" to determine Inside Shot, which on the surface is the right decision but is going to lead to some REALLY awkward ratings for big men, but for the point guards who mostly aren't big dunkers, this isn't that big of a deal (and in many cases takes care of some PGs whose Inside rating was way too high).
Close range also seems to have a higher rating value for PGs, perhaps even as valuable as Mid-Range rating. I actually agree with that assessment because this is the range where a PG's tear drops and floaters are coming from. For the record, I believe that Close range is a combination of "3-9 feet" and "10-15 feet", as percentages & attempts from these ranges are usually similar.
Medium range has seen a much stricter, statistical approach. Fans have already been quick to complain about Kobe Bryant's mid-range rating, which I addressed here.
The 3pt rating formula seems to have been overhauled. Most players saw 4-6 point improvement in their 3pt rating which likely means the scale is just 5 points higher than it was previously. This should hopefully fix 3pt% which was usually very low in online games as players needed to be totally wide open to hit shots more often than not.
Chris Paul
93 Overall (0)
93 Overall 2K11 (0)
80 Inside (-10)
81 Close (-3)
84 Mid (-1)
85 3pt (+2)
88 FT (-1)
It is worth noting that CP3's pass rating is shown as 97 in 2K11 but this is because he is wearing a shoe that gives him +3 pass rating. I have no idea if he is wearing the same shoes in 2K12, if they have the same attribute boosts, if any at all (I hope not, but that's a story for another day). Presuming he still has that +3 pass shoe, his overall drops by a point which makes sense since his Inside also dropped by 10 points.
Derrick Rose
92 Overall (+1)
91 Overall 2K11 (0)
88 Inside (0)
80 Close (-4)
77 Mid (-5)
79 3pt (0)
86 FT (+3)
By the way 2K fans, Derrick Rose ALSO shot 38% from 16-23 feet. Why the Kobe complaints but no love for the MVP? You might want to simultaneously note that Rose trails Kobe by 19 points from Close. But enough about the obvious. What you might not have noticed is that Rose saw decreases but his overall WENT UP. Considering his high Inside rating, this was the first major clue that the rating held more importance for PGs. It is also worth noting that Rose is the only player in the top 10 that did not see a boost in 3pt rating (really solidifying that the scale is higher).
Deron Williams
90 Overall (-1)
91 Overall 2K11 (0)
84 Inside (-5)
73 Close (-7)
81 Mid (-3)
80 3pt (+3)
85 FT (+2)
Deron had a tale of two seasons as his shooting percentages were GREAT until he hurt his wrist, and shut it down after some miserable production in New Jersey. Going off his Utah only numbers, he would surely rate at least a point higher.
Russell Westbrook
88 Overall (0)
89 Overall 2K11 (+1)
87 Inside (-1)
77 Close (+2)
75 Mid (-4)
76 3pt (+12)
84 FT (-3)
Westbrook helps confirm that the 3pt scale went up. Granted he did hit 33% in his limited attempts. I'm definitely seeing an error with his close rating though, as it should be worse than Deron's given his production from 10-15 feet and 3-9 feet. Westbrook isn't nearly as effective when he isn't getting all the way to the rim (60% at rim compared to 26% from 3-9 feet).
Rajon Rondo
85 Overall (-2)
87 Overall 2K11 (0)
85 Inside (-5)
50 Close (-22)
68 Mid (0)
61 3pt (+9)
57 FT (+3)
Rondo helped confirm that Close is much more important than it was last year. It's worth noting that he really isn't that much worse than Westbrook from there; whether that positively benefits Rondo or negatively benefits Westbrook remains to be seen.
Steve Nash
84 Overall (-1)
84 Overall 2K11 (-1)
89 Inside (-9)
88 Close (-7)
80 Mid (-10)
86 3pt (+1)
91 FT (-3)
A few fans have pointed out that Nash's 80 mid-range seems low, and I agree completely. While he didn't have the awesome efficiency he did during his prime (50% from 2007-2009) he still hit 44%, only 1% worse than Paul who has an 84. Nash was also 6% better than Rose who he leads by only 3 points. The math just doesn't add up here. Nash was still over 50% from 3-15 feet, which is why he has the best Close rating among PGs (though it also seems a bit low compared to other ratings we've seen).
John Wall
82 Overall (0)
81 Overall 2K11 (-1)
83 Inside (-2)
64 Close (-6)
64 Mid (-8)
73 3pt (+7)
77 FT (+2)
Wall's close/mid ratings tanked but that gets canceled out by the 3pt formula change. His solid inside rating and athleticism (another area benefitting 2K12 players) keeps him status quo. Worth noting that Wall was 11% worse from Mid-range than Rondo yet only trails him in Mid by 4 points. This is because Rondo (41%) is actually a bit underrated. 2K didn't want to give Rondo a higher mid-range rating than Kobe because they knew they would have gotten laughed at even harder, but Rondo (91-223) certainly deserves a much better one than Wall (86-287).
Stephen Curry
80 Overall (-2)
83 Overall 2K11 (+1)
84 Inside (0)
72 Close (-7)
92 Mid (+6)
90 3pt (+4)
93 FT (+1)
It's really weird to me how selective 2K is with their implementation of stats. Curry shot 48% from mid-range and has 92. Nash shot 44% on one fewer attempt and has 84. Rondo shot 41% on one fewer attempt per game and is 24 points worse. I mean, if they're going to be selective, why bother following the stats on Kobe/Rose and just appease their fans?
Tony Parker
80 Overall (-4)
83 Overall 2K11 (-1)
97 Inside (+2)
78 Close (-14)
72 Mid (-8)
78 3pt (+8)
77 FT (-1)
Parker took a big Close hit and saw his overall rating plummet. I have a feeling other ratings of his might have changed (probably defense related) to make up for the rest of his drop, which is greater than everyone else's so far. I am also going to assume 2K is using 3-9 feet for their Inside rating which is the only way to explain Parker's high Inside rating and low Close rating given his 52% from that range. Given that the description of "Inside" shot is "shots taken under the rim", this is probably a mistake, but will wait for some gameplay testing to make a full assessment.
Chauncey Billups
79 Overall (-3)
82 Overall 2K11 (0)
78 Inside (-10)
80 Close (+9)
69 Mid (-11)
87 3pt (+5)
92 FT (+1)
As with Deron, Billups shooting numbers took a hit after being moved at the trade deadline, mainly due to an injury suffered shortly after the move. As with other players, Inside once again plays a huge role in overall rating now, as Billups' rating doesn't even budge in 2K11 with those shot ratings.
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All in all, I don't have a problem with the overall rating of Point Guards. Once I get to the other positions, then you'll see some rage unleashed.
6 comments:
Great !
Eager to read more, keep them coming !
P.S:
Already posted at OS.
2k is weird. They consider:
Inside = at rim + 3-9 feet
Close = 10-15 feet
Mid = 16-23 feet
For rating and tendency purposes it is much better to consider Inside as solely at rim.
Kobe Bryant per 40 mins
Rim: 2.7 of 4.1 (65%)
3-9: 1.7 of 3.6 (48%)
10-15: 1.9 of 3.7 (51%)
16-23: 2.6 of 7.0 (38%)
3pt: 1.7 of 5.1 (32%)
3-9 and 10-15 are simply way too similar for 3-9 to have any actual bearing on Inside.
Using straight per40 for tendencies that would lead to
(Inside-Close-Medium-3pt)
41-73-70-51
W/ 3-9 feet counting towards Inside that would be
77-37-70-51
First setup allows Close to be his #1 shooting zone. Second setup makes close his least frequent shooting zone.
Taking a look at LeBron per 40
Rim: 4.4 of 6.1 (72%)
3-9: 1.1 of 2.4 (44%)
10-15: 0.7 of 1.6 (44%)
16-23: 2.5 of 5.5 (45%)
3pt: 1.2 of 3.6 (33%)
Once again 3-9 and 10-15 are pretty much the same thing. LeBron's 72% at rim trumps Kobe's 65% rim, while Kobe's 48% 3-9 beats LeBron's 44% 3-9.
Bron tendencies would be either
61-40-55-36
85-16-55-36
Group A
Kobe: 41-63-70-55
LeBron: 61-40-55-36
Group B
Kobe: 77-36-70-55
LeBron: 85-16-55-36
There isn't nearly enough differential between the two in group B.
Worse yet, is when we get to the centers.
Dwight Howard per 40mins
Rim: 5.6 of 7.4 (75%)
3-9: 2.1 of 4.8 (44%)
10-15: 0.5 of 1.2 (39%)
16-23: 0.2 of 0.7(32%)
3pt: 0.0 of 0.1 (0%)
Group A: 74-60-7-1
Group B: 122-12-7-1
Group B pretty much destroys the tendencies.
Rashidi,
Love that you're still doing roster editing. Two questions:
1) Will you be using any editing tools this year like Hex or the Reditor? Don't know how they work exactly, but they seem to make editing easier.
2) Will you be doing edits throughout the lockout or will you wait? I only ask because of the situation with rookies being unavailable, no free-agency movement and imbalance on certain rosters (Denver, San Antonio, etc.).
It depends entirely on how the talks progress. Obviously there won't be much to update if the season doesn't start on time.
I would also hate to have to start from the beginning because the rookies won't be added to the game by 2K until they officially sign. That includes all their associated commentary, which is a pretty big feature to be missing.
Obviously if the season doesn't look like it's going to start for awhile I will push forward, but in the meantime it can't hurt to do some game testing as well as focus on attributes for the Legends teams since we know those players will all be unaffected by the lockout.
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