NBA 2K13 Roster Analysis 1/30/13

With today's roster update, 2K Sports once again shows us that their grip on the NBA is tenuous at best.  Seven players were edited, but four of those players have already received multiple edits this season.  Some other interesting figures regarding this update...

Missing Players: 13
Players on Wrong Teams: 6
Incorrect Head Coaches: 1
Incorrect Injuries: 2
Missing Injuries: 5
Incorrect Starting Lineups: 5

2K simply is not doing enough with their product on a day-to-day basis.  Frankly, I am getting extremely bored of online play as 2K barely makes any changes to their rosters despite more people playing their game than ever.  The list of blatantly mis-rated players grows every day, and meanwhile we're getting the FOURTH update to Jrue Holiday.

Oh, but we have the All-Star team (for offline play) for those who have the DLC.  Like any of you care.

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PLAYER EDITS

Player attribute edits per roster
1/30: 7
1/24: 0
1/21: 0
1/17: 18
1/12: 2
1/5: 16
1/3: 1
12/25: 0
12/21: 0
12/18: 9
12/13: 1
12/8: 15
12/5: 14
11/17:  16

Editor's Note: My statistical breakdowns and analysis of the individual rating changes will come later in the day.

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Jrue Holiday

88 Overall (+1)
91 Inside (+3)
82 3pt (-2)
78 FT (-2)
92 Layup (+3)
71 Traffic (+3)
71 SOD (+3)
72 Steal (-4)
48 OffReb (+10)
92 OffAwr (+4)
99 Stamina (+1)
90 Speed (+4)
92 Quickness (+3)
86 Hustle (+4)
85 Durability (+11)

2013
PER: 19.2
Synergy OFF: 0.87 PPP (238th)
Synergy DEF: 0.88 PPP (208th)
Inside: 106-168 (63.1%)
Close: 95-221 (42.9%)
Med: 67-164 (40.9%)
3pt: 44-123 (35.8%)
FT: 106-136 (77.9%)
STL%: 2.0
ORB%: 3.2

2012
PER: 14.7
Synergy OFF: 0.87 PPP (252nd)
Synergy DEF: 0.72 PPP (29th)
Inside: 137-253 (54.2%)
Close: 125-330 (37.8%)
Med: 87-210 (41.4%)
3pt: 85-220 (38.6%)
FT: 94-120 (78.3%)
STL%: 2.5
ORB%: 2.9

Aside from Holiday making the all-star team, I'm not sure what the precedent is to tweak Holiday AGAIN.  Don't get me wrong, player edits are (almost) always welcome, but these adjustments are minor and Holiday has now been edited four times this season.   There are tons of players who haven't been adjusted in years.

As with most players, a bigger offensive role has lead to a drop off in defensive effort.  Holiday's defense was elite last season but is merely average this season.  His steal rating has dropped, but the rest of his defensive ratings (86 Off-Ball Defense, 86 Defensive Awareness) are still quite high.  The Sixers are only 18th defensively this year, well down from last season's #3 ranking, and Holiday's diminished efffectiveness is a big part of that (though most of it can be attributed to replacing Andre Iguodala's minutes with Evan Turner).

I'd say Holiday is pretty overrated now.  His numbers are a product of his increased offensive role, and efficiency-wise they don't blow anyone away.  The team isn't winning games and one has to think that Andrew Bynum's presence would kill Holiday's numbers but also help the 76ers immensely.  We'll find out when Bynum makes his return after the all-star break.

Rashidi's Rating: 86

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Kyrie Irving

88 Overall (+3)
83 Medium (+5)
80 Steal (+12)
92 Hands (+5)
92 OffAwr (+8)
74 DefAwr (+8)
92 Durability (+9)
93 Potential (+4)

2013
PER: 22.4
Synergy OFF: 0.98 PPP (75th)
Synergy DEF: 0.83 PPP (119th)
Inside: 81-145 (55.9%)
Close: 90-200 (45.0%)
Med: 68-141 (48.2%)
3pt: 69-169 (40.8%)
STL%: 2.6
Isolation: 1.05 PPP (5th) - 30.9% of offense

2012
PER: 21.4
Synergy OFF: 0.95 PPP (113th)
Synergy DEF: 1.03 PPP (447th)
Inside: 167-272 (61.4%)
Close: 60-161 (37.2%)
Med: 50-131 (38.2%)
3pt: 73-183 (39.9%)
STL%: 1.8
Isolation: 1.01 PPP (10th) - 15.9% of offense

As with Holiday, the main reason Irving got this boost is he made the all-star team.  The difference is Irving actually needed an upgrade. Fans have been calling for Irving to get a much needed boost to his mid-range shot.  He got it, but looking at his shooting stats it wasn't enough.

It should be very clear that looking at Irving's Synergy data that he's one of the best Isolation players on the planet.  What's scary is that he's doing this playing next to players opposing teams don't even need to bother guarding!

Irving has also improved his defense quite a bit.  Last year he was the worst defensive PG in basketball but this year he has been above average (thanks to an improved steal rate) while carrying the load offensively.

(Pointed out by BewmHedShot, Irving has yet to show he can stay healthy.  After an abbreviated college career, Irving has suffered injuries in both of his NBA seasons, having played 76.7% of his games so far.  What is the logic behind raising his Durability?  If anything, it should have went down.)

Rashidi's Rating: 88

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Dwight Howard

89 Overall (-3)
92 Inside (-6)
92 Dunk (-3)
64 Steal (-8)
90 DefAwr (-5)
70 Consistency (-15)
82 Vertical (-6)
81 Hustle (-6)

2013
PER: 19.7
Synergy OFF: 0.94 PPP (129th)
Synergy DEF: 0.68 PPP (9th)
Inside: 178-255 (69.8%)
Close: 71-166 (42.7%)
Med: 1-8 (12.5%)
3pt: 1-4 (25.0%)
STL%: 1.5
Dunks: 98 (55% of Inside FGM, 3.21 Dunks per 48 minutes)
Post-Up: 0.76 PPP (80th) - 45.9% of offense

2012
PER: 24.2
Synergy OFF: 0.96 PPP (93rd)
Synergy DEF: 0.75 PPP (45th)
Inside: 274-375 (73.1%)
Close: 142-342 (41.5%)
Med: 0-2 (0%)
3pt: 0-7 (0%)
STL%: 2.1
Dunks: 137 (50% of Inside FGM, 3.17 Dunks per 48 minutes)
Post-Up 0.88 PPP (55th) - 57.5% of offense

2K Sports simply does not understand WHY Howard isn't performing at his usual offensive standards.  Yes, he is limited by his back injury, but that hasn't stopped him from dunking nearly three times per game.  It's Howard's post game that has diminished.  His drop in efficiency is concerning since he is surrounded by far more talent than he had in Orlando.  Generally a player's efficiency is supposed to go up when they aren't being relied on as heavily or focused on by the defense.

Rashidi's Rating: 89

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Steve Nash

83 Overall (-2)
86 Close (-5)
93 FT (+3)
87 Layup (-5)
91 Pass (-3)
63 Steal (+5)
66 BallDef (-4)
65 DefAwr (-2)
80 Consistency (-10)
93 Stamina (-2)
81 Speed (-4)
83 Quickness (-5)

2013
PER: 16.3
Synergy OFF: 0.94 PPP (129th)
Synergy DEF: 0.93 PPP (294th)
Inside: 16-23 (69.6%)
Close: 32-63 (50.7%)
Med: 20-36 (56.6%)
3pt: 24-54 (44.4%)
FT: 33-35 (94.3%)
AST%: 37.2
STL%: 1.2
Shot Assisted%: 15.6
Pick and Roll: 0.82 PPP (41st) - 51% of offense

2012
PER: 20.3
Synergy OFF: 0.92 PPP (164th)
Synergy DEF: 0.82 PPP (147th)
Inside: 77-104 (74.0%)
Close: 77-150 (51.3%)
Med: 86-160 (53.7%)
3pt: 55-141 (39.0%)
FT: 127-142 (89.4%)
AST%: 53.1
STL%: 1.0
Shot Assisted%: 46.7
Pick and Roll: 0.92 PPP (28th) - 61% of offense

As evidenced by his percentages, Nash has the best shot selection in the game.  Rather than drop any of his shooting ratings, I would advocate dropping his Shoot Off Dribble rating as we haven't seen the pick and roll mastery that he's otherwise shown throughout his career.  Last year Nash was assisted on only 40% of his three-point shots, but this year he's getting many more spotup looks and has been assisted on 92% of them.

Nash was an adequate defender last season (despite his reputation), but age seems to have caught up to him here.  He has been a step slow on both ends, and is notably recovering from a leg injury he suffered early in the season.

Rashidi's Rating: 80

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Jerry Stackhouse

67 Overall (-2)
74 3pt (-2)
68 Layup (-6)
60 Dunk (-10)
71 SOD (-4)
68 OffAwr (-4)
50 DefAwr (-2)
50 Consistency (-15)

2013
PER: 8.0
Synergy OFF: 0.84 PPP (279th)
Synergy DEF: 0.79 PPP (69th)
Inside: 4-7 (57.1%)
Close: 11-25 (44.0%)
Med: 6-18 (33.3%)
3pt: 25-77 (32.5%)
Shot Assisted: 67.4%

2012
PER: 11.5
Synergy OFF: 0.84 PPP (300th)
Synergy DEF: 0.70 PPP (20th)
Inside: 8-18 (44.4%)
Close: 7-19 (36.8%)
Med: 9-25 (36.0%)
3pt: 13-38 (34.2%)
Shot Assisted: 78.4%

At 38 years of age, Stackhouse hasn't really been an NBA level player in 5 years.  At this stage of his career he isn't much more than a spotup shooter, and not a particularly good one at that.  It goes without saying that Stackhouse hadn't been updated by 2K in quite some time and that a player his age isn't a good finisher at the rim anymore.

Rashidi's Rating: 63

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Alan Anderson

70 Overall (+4)
79 3pt (+3)
85 FT (+3)
73 Layup (+4)
69 Traffic (+4)
63 Security (+7)
74 Steal (+14)
71 OffAwr (+19)
55 Consistency (+10)
82 Hustle (+5)
79 Durability (+5)
72 Potential (+2)

2013
PER: 14.1
Synergy OFF: 0.92 PPP (170th)
Synergy DEF: 0.79 PPP (69th)
Inside: 29-44 (65.9%)
Close: 28-72 (38.8%)
Med: 10-48 (20.8%)
3pt: 54-160 (33.8%)
FT: 75-88 (85.2%)
STL%: 2.3

2012
PER: 8.7
Synergy OFF: 0.90 PPP (202nd)
Synergy DEF: 0.70 PPP (20th)
Inside: 13-21 (61.9%)
Close: 7-30 (23.3%)
Med: 11-30 (36.7%)
3pt: 24-61 (39.3%)
FT: 29-34 (85.3%)
STL%: 0.6

Anderson has arguably been Toronto's best wing player this season.

DeRozan: 14.4 PER, 0.062 WS/48
Anderson: 14.1 PER, 0.067 WS/48
Ross: 11.4 PER, 0.033 WS/48
Fields: 9.0 PER, 0.023 WS/48
Kleiza: 8.3 PER, 0.005 WS/48
Pietrus: 6.2 PER, -0.011 WS/48

Of course, when Alan Anderson is your top wing player, that'll lead you to do things like trade the farm for Rudy Gay on a max contract.

Gay: 14.3 PER, 0.085 WS/48

Don't expect too much of an upgrade, Raptors fans.

Rashidi's Rating: 73

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Tiago Splitter

70 Overall (+6)
88 Inside (-7)
64 Close (+3)
73 FT (+4)
56 Traffic (+10)
33 Pass (+4)
68 Steal (+10)
51 Hands (+16)
81 OffReb (+8)
72 DefReb (+2)
62 OffAwr (+21)
74 DefAwr (+6)
55 Consistency (+15)
83 Hustle (+16)

2013
PER: 20.3
Synergy OFF: 1.13 PPP (8th)
Synergy DEF: 0.85 PPP (156th)
Inside: 162-227 (71.4%)
Close: 23-77 (29.8%)
Med: 0-2 (0%)
3pt: 0-1 (0%)
FT: 119-161 (73.9%)
AST%: 8.7
STL%: 1.6
ORB%: 8.8
DRB%: 19.7
Pick and Roll: 1.38 PPP (2nd) - 28% of offense

2012
PER: 20.5
Synergy OFF: 1.08 PPP (13th)
Synergy DEF: 0.91 PPP (341st)
Inside: 197-254 (77.6%)
Close: 45-131 (34.3%)
Med: 0-5 (0%)
3pt: 0-0 (N/A)
FT: 125-181 (69.1%)
AST%: 9.2
STL%: 1.0
ORB%: 9.7
DRB%: 21.4
Pick and Roll: 1.32 PPP (5th) - 29% of offense

The majority of Splitter's ratings are based on his 2011 season, and he has been one of the most underrated players in NBA 2K for the last two seasons.  Even with this update, he is still grossly underrated.

Splitter is one of the league's top options at finishing on the pick and roll which makes him a perfect fit with Tony Parker.  Offensively he resembles Tyson Chandler, but with more post-up ability.

Rashidi's Rating: 76

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COACHING CHANGES

Alvin Gentry is still coach of the Suns.  Lindsey Hunter replaced him on 1/18.

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ALL-STAR TEAMS

Please note that you cannot use the All-Star teams UNLESS you have the All-Star DLC.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
84 - Kevin Garnett (PF)
99 - LeBron James (SF)
90 - Carmelo Anthony (SF)
91 - Dwyane Wade (SG)
89 - Rajon Rondo (PG)
BENCH
88 - Kyrie Irving (PG)
88 - Jrue Holiday (PG)
83 - Paul George (SG)
83 - Joakim Noah (C)
83 - Luol Deng (SF)
82 - Chris Bosh (C)
77 - Tyson Chandler (C)

I'm guessing 2K did not notice how awful their Chandler rating has been for the last 30 months.
With Rondo out for the season, he was replaced on the team by Brook Lopez (though 2K has not reflected this yet).

WESTERN CONFERENCE
89 - Dwight Howard (C)
86 - Blake Griffin (PF)
95 - Kevin Durant (SF)
95 - Kobe Bryant (SG)
94 - Chris Paul (PG)
BENCH
90 - Russell Westbrook (PG)
87 - Tim Duncan (C)
86 - James Harden (SG)
86 - LaMarcus Aldridge (PF)
84 - David Lee (PF)
84 - Tony Parker (PG)
83 - Zach Randolph (PF)

I expect Chris Paul to sit out the game due to his nagging knee injuries, which leaves the door wide-open for Stephen Curry to take his spot.

PLAYERS WITH ALL-STAR RATINGS WHO OBVIOUSLY AREN'T
87 - Josh Smith (PF) - Hawks
86 - Rudy Gay (SF) - Grizzlies
85 - Andre Iguodala (SG) - Nuggets
83 - Amare Stoudemire (PF) - Knicks
83 - Kemba Walker (PG) - Bobcats (-1 from Tony Parker LOLOLLOLOLOLLL)
83 - Monta Ellis (SG) - Bucks
83 - Joe Johnson (SG) - Nets
82 - J.R. Smith (SG) - Knicks
82 - Evan Turner (SF) - 76ers
81 - Caron Butler (SF) - Clippers
80 - Wilson Chandler (SF) - Nuggets

Expect 2K to address this list sometime next year.

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INJURED PLAYERS

Rajon Rondo's torn ACL is the first big monkey wrench thrown into the NBA season.  The Celtics absolutely need a PG now and will be actively looking for a trade partner.  While on paper it would seem to hurt the Celtics, I'm skeptical a player like Jose Calderon wouldn't get their offense shining (Rondo has lead a team with Pierce, Garnett, and Terry to the league's 3rd worst offense).

Chris Paul has missed 7 of the last 9 games his return date is unknown.  Hopefully this nerfs the countless Clippers fans we see online.  On second thought nevermind, as the Heat/Thunder users are surely going to double.

Andrew Bogut made a surprise return and played well in his debut.  Bogut should improve the Warriors immensely, especially online where his replacement Festus Ezeli was only 52 Overall (gook luck getting 2K to upgrade that now).

NEW
Chris Paul (94/PG) - Clippers
Daniel Gibson (65/SG) - Cavaliers
Rajon Rondo (89/PG) - Celtics

RECOVERED
Steve Blake (68/PG) - Lakers
Royce White (68/PF) - Rockets
Andrew Bogut (79/C) - Warriors

MISSING INJURIES
Chris Kaman (76/C) - Mavericks: Out indefinitely with a concussion.
Tornike Shengelia (56/SF) - Nets: Out indefinitely with a concussion.
Corey Maggette (75/SF) - Pistons: Sprained ankle and has not played since 12/15.  Even if technically healthy, there is no reason for him to be on Pistons active roster.
Linas Kleiza (64/SF) - Raptors: Has not played since 12/28 due to a sore knee.
Royce White (68/PF) - Rockets: Not making D-League debut until 2/11. NBA still ways away.

INCORRECT INJURIES
Hedo Turkoglu (72/SF) - Magic: Returned on 1/29, scoring 4 points.
Sam Young (68/SF) - Pacers: In a "DUH" moment, Young wouldn't have been signed if he were still hurt.

OUT FOR SEASON (6 total)
Rajon Rondo (89/PG) - Celtics
Anderson Varejao (76/C) - Cavaliers
Louis Williams (78/SG) - Hawks
Jordan Hill (70/C) - Lakers
Channing Frye (67/PF - Suns
Brandon Rush (71/SG) - Warriors

INJURED LIST (33 total)
76ers: Andrew Bynum (87/C)
Bobcats: Byron Mullens (69/PF)
Bucks: N/A
Bulls: Derrick Rose (92/PG)
Cavaliers: Anderson Varejao (76/C), Daniel Gibson (65/SG)
Celtics: Rajon Rondo (89/PG)
Clippers: Chris Paul (94/PG), Chauncey Billups (81/PG), Trey Thompkins (63/PF)
Grizzlies: Quincy Pondexter (61/SF)
Hawks: Louis Williams (78/SG), Anthony Morrow (66/SG)
Heat: N/A
Hornets: N/A
Jazz: Mo Williams (78/PG), Raja Bell (71/SG)
Kings: N/A
Knicks:   Marcus Camby (73/C), Rasheed Wallace (71/PF)
Lakers: Jordan Hill (70/C)
Magic:  Hedo Turkoglu (72/SF), Al Harrington (71/PF)
Mavericks: N/A
Nets: N/A
Nuggets: N/A
Pacers: Danny Granger (83/SF), Sam Young (68/SF)
Pistons: N/A
Raptors: Andrea Bargnani (73/PF), Jonas Valanciunas (68/C)
Rockets: N/A
Spurs: N/A
Suns: Channing Frye (67/PF)
Thunder: N/A
Timberwolves: Kevin Love (89/PF), Brandon Roy (80/SG), Nikola Pekovic (76/C), Alexey Shved (71/SG), Chase Budinger (71/SF), Malcolm Lee (SG/65)
Trail Blazers: Elliot Williams (66/SG)
Warriors: Brandon Rush (71/SG)
Wizards: Cartier Martin (67/SF)

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PLAYER MOVEMENT

Jannero Pargo (64/PG) - Hawks (from Free Agents)
Sam Young (68/SF) - Pacers (from Free Agents)

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PLAYERS ON WRONG TEAMS

This is the second week in a row we've had these errors, which is frankly pathetic.  Dominic McGuire joins the original five players with expired contracts to make it six.  They seriously couldn't waive Wayns and put Mack on the Sixers AGAIN?

Maalik Wayns (63/PG) - 76ers (10-day contract expired, team opted to sign Shelvin Mack instead)
Josh Harrellson (54/C) - Heat (10-day contract expired, team opted to sign Chris Andersen instead)
Donald Sloan (63/PG) - Hornets (10-day contract expired, team did not re-sign)
Damion James (70/SF) - Nets (10-day contract expired, team did not re-sign)
Dominic McGuire (66/SF) - Pacers (10-day contract expired, team opted to sign Sam Young instead)
Shelvin Mack (65/PG) - Free Agents (Was signed to 10-day contract on 1/17, four rosters ago)

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MISSING PLAYERS

No new players were added.

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UPDATED MISSING PLAYER LIST
Kevin Jones (PF) - Cavaliers (15 games, 9.0 mpg)
Chris Johnson (SG/SF) - Grizzlies (4 games, 17.8 mpg)
Jarvis Varnado (PF) - Heat (7 games, 4.3 mpg)
Kevin Murphy (SG) - Jazz (7 games, 4.0 mpg)
Mike James (PG) - Mavericks (9 games, 9.9 mpg, played 539 games prior to this season)
Julyan Stone (PG/SG) - Nuggets (2 games, 5.5 mpg, played 22 games prior to this season)
Ben Hansbrough (PG/SG) - Pacers (16 games, 8.4 mpg)
Patrick Beverley (PG) - Rockets (9 games, 11.1 mpg)
Aron Baynes (C) - Spurs (1 game, 1.0 mpg)
Diante Garrett (SG) - Suns (6 games, 5.0 mpg)
Mickael Gelabale (SF) Timberwolves (5 games, 21.8 mpg)
Chris Johnson (C/PF) - Timberwolves (5 games, 17.2 mpg, played 41 games prior to this season)
Kent Bazemore (SG/SF) - Warriors (30 games, 3.5 mpg)
TOTAL: 13

Mike James and Jarvis Varnado were signed for the rest of the season. James has been in previous 2K games and his re-addition to the game should not be particularly difficult.

Patrick Beverley quickly supplanted Toney Douglas as the Rockets backup PG, and needs to be added to the game.  IIRC correctly, he was previously in an NBA 2K game despite not playing until this year, which should make his addition easier.

Mickael Gelabale and Chris Johnson have played extremely well for Minnesota, garnering a ton of minutes (for 10-day contract players) due to injuries.   Both need to be added, however 2K will likely only add one as the Wolves have 16 players on the roster with a game max of 15.  In my roster I simply released Brandon Roy, who is unlikely to play again (while also dropping his ridiculous 80 rating to avoid another team from signing him).

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INCORRECT LINEUPS

76ERS
Jrue Holiday (PG), Jason Richardson (SG), Evan Turner (SF), Thaddeus Young (PF), Lavoy Allen (C)
Spencer Hawes replaced Allen in the starting lineup on 1/26.

HAWKS
Jeff Teague (PG), Kyle Korver (SG), Josh Smith (SF), Al Horford (PF), Zaza Pachulia (C)
Devin Harris has been starting at SG, moving Pachulia to the bench and everyone back to their natural spots.  2K also has DeShawn Stevenson on the inactive list for no reason whatsoever - Stevenson logged 29 minutes in his last game on 1/27.

KNICKS
Raymond Felton (PG), Iman Shumpert (SG), Carmelo Anthony (SF), Amare Stoudemire (PF), Tyson Chandler (C)
Amare Stoudemire has yet to start a game since returning on 1/1.  It would be nice if 2K Sports also dropped his rating about 5 points (from a ridiculous 83) as he isn't anywhere near the athletic finisher he was during his prime.  Since Felton returned from injury, Jason Kidd has been starting at SG, pushing Shump to SF and Melo to PF.

MAGIC
Jameer Nelson (PG), Arron Afflalo (SG), DeQuan Jones (SF), Andrew Nicholson (PF), Nikola Vucevic (C)
Glen Davis returned to the starting lineup on 1/16.

MAVERICKS

Darren Collison (PG), O.J. Mayo (SG), Shawn Marion (SF), Dirk Nowitzki (PF), Chris Kaman (C)

Kaman was demoted and is also hurt.  Bernard James has started the last two games for Dallas.

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Liked the in-depth breakdown of 2K Sports' roster update?  Check out Rashidi's roster, The Real NBA 2K13.