Associaton Sim [02-06-10]

It's been a month and a half since my last association update. I spent the night revamping my coach profiles and I want to test out the sim results.

I turned off all variables for this simulation (Player Roles, Injuries, Progressive Fatigue, Trades).


LEAGUE LEADERS

POINTS
Bryant 28.0
LeBron 26.8
Durant 26.2
Bosh 26.2
Nowitzki 25.4
Yao 23.3
Martin 23.1
Wade 22.6
Johnson 22.2
Duncan 22.2
Monta 21.9
A.Jefferson 21.8
Howard 21.2
Melo 21.0 - CPU puts J.R. Smith in starting lineup, cuts into Melo's shots.
Granger 20.5

February simulation
25+ ppg: 5
20+ ppg: 15

December simulation
25+ ppg: 8
20+ ppg: 24

Real Life
25+ ppg: 7
20+ ppg: 16

Much more realistic now.


REBOUNDS
G.Wallace 14.7
Bosh 14.5
Howard 13.3
Duncan 13.2
P.Gasol 12.5
Lee 12.5
Lopez 11.7
Camby 11.7
Randolph 11.1
B.Wallace 10.9
Horford 10.8
Bogut 10.5
Boozer 10.5
Jefferson 10.4

February
12+ rpg: 6
10+ rpg: 14

December
12+ rpg: 7
10+ rpg: 17

Real Life
12+ rpg: 3
10+ rpg: 10

It's worth noting Bosh averaged 16.4 rpg in my December simulation but was down to 14.5 in February. Progress is being made, but I doubt this will ever be perfected due to the game's slanted calculation methods.

ASSISTS
Kidd 10.6
Rondo 10.2
Deron 9.3
Nash 9.3
Paul 8.2
Harris 7.8
Davis 7.5
Brooks 7.4
Billups 7.2
Parker 7.1

February
9+ apg: 4
7+ apg: 10

December
9+ apg: 5
7+ apg: 12

Real Life
9+ apg: 5
7+ apg: 8

As expected, the drop in scoring lead to a drop in assists, and likewise gives us a more realistic result.

I didn't adjust lineups before starting the simulation, so Paul (injured reserve) was re-inserted into the lineup by the CPU and given 36 mpg, while his backup Darren Collison saw 30 mpg. Collison averaged 5.7 apg and he probably cut into Paul's totals.

STEALS
Rondo 2.9
Ariza 2.8
Iguodala 2.8
Paul 2.4
J.Smith 2.4
Kobe 2.3
B.Davis 2.3
Ginobili 2.3
Wade 2.2
Curry 2.2
B.Wallace 2.1
Kidd 2.1
Ellis 2.0
R.Brewer 2.0

February
3.0+ spg: 0
2.5+ spg: 3
2.0+ spg: 14

December
3.0+ spg: 1
2.5+ spg: 7
2.0+ spg: 14

Real Life
3.0+ spg: 0
2.5+ spg: 0
2.0+ spg: 3 (Rondo leads league with 2.4)

There are still far too many steals, but at least we're moving in the right direction. I don't care as much about this one, because even with all the steals player turnovers are still far too low (Monta, Rose, and Tyreke lead the league with 3.0 turnovers). Monta leads the league right now with 4.1 turnovers. We might just have to chalk this one up as a 2K design flaw.

BLOCKS
Howard 3.0
Duncan 2.9
J.Smith 2.9
Okafor 2.6
B.Lopez 2.4
P.Gasol 2.4
Perkins 2.3
Bogut 2.3
Yao 2.3
Camby 2.2
A.Jefferson 2.2
Dalembert 2.1
Noah 2.0
R.Lopez 2.0
Hollins 2.0

February
3.0+ bpg: 1
2.5+ bpg: 4
2.0+ bpg: 15

December
3.0+ bpg: 3
2.5+ bpg: 8
2.0+ bpg: 24

Real Life
3.0+ bpg: 0
2.5+ bpg: 1 (Howard leads league w/ 2.7)
2.0+ bpg: 8

As with steals, there are still too many blocks, but it's definitely a step in the right direction. Plus, Robin Lopez and Ryan Hollins don't qualify for league leaders in real life, while Yao is out for the year. It's a bit closer to realistic than the results show.


TEAM STATS


I didn't do this in my last simulation so I won't have previous data to compare it to.

TEAM POINTS (Real Life rank in parenthasize)
Suns 105.2 (1st) - DING
Warriors 104.3 (3rd)
Lakers 103.7 (5th)
Nuggets 103.5 (2nd)
Magic 101.6 (15th) - no injuries in this sim.
Knicks 101.6 (12th) - Nate starting all season over Duhon.
Cavaliers 101.2 (11th)
Spurs 101.7 (14th) - No injuries to big 3.
Kings 99.9 (9th) - DING
Rockets 99.7 (10th) - DING
Wolves 99.2 (21st)
Jazz 98.6 (7th)
Celtics 98.6 (18th) - No injuries.
Nets 98.5 (30th) - Ugh, they are still too good.
Thunder 98.4 (19th)
Pacers 97.8 (17th)
Hawks 97.7 (8th) - Somewhat perplexing.
Clippers 97.7 (26th) - Healthy Blake Griffin.
Raptors 97.7 (4th) - JJ/DD in starting lineup is my best guess.
Sixers 97.3 (24th) - Healthy team, plus Iverson at start.
Wizards 97.1 (23rd) - Non-Suspended Arenas... pretty close at 21st though.
Blazers 96.6 - DING
Bucks 95.6 (20th) - Healthy Redd.
Mavericks 95.6 (13th) - Very odd, given Dirk/Kidd's high ppg/apg.
Bobcats 95.1 (27th)
Hornets 94.9 (16th)
Heat 94.8 (25th)
Grizzlies 94.5 (6th) - Well, this one couldn't be more wrong.
Bulls 91.5 (28th)
Pistons 89.5 (29th) - If I can get the Nets this low the bottom 3 will be perfect!

100+ ppg
February: 8
Real Life: 15 (league avg: 99.9)

Point totals are down across the board in my simulation. The league average is down by about 2 ppg. Tough to know why without further investigation.

There will also obviously be some fluctuation from sim to sim. Memphis only won 30 games (2nd worst in league) and their low scoring output was obviously a reason. In another sim where the AI decides to let Memphis win, they probably score a lot more points. The Lakers were the highest rated team, but won as many games (45) as the NY Knicks. The game uses a much different sim logic in association as it does during the playoffs (which we'll find out shortly).


For a first time, these are pretty good, and they'll likely get better.

TEAM FG%
Cavaliers .483
Warriors .465
Lakers .464
Suns .462
Jazz .462
Sixers .462
Blazers .461
Spurs .460

February
.480+: 1
.460+: 8

Real Life
.480+: 4
.460+: 13

Looks like the drop in scoring can be attributed to a league-wide drop in FG%. That's awesome.


TEAM 3PT%
Magic .425
Cavaliers .418
Celtics .410
Suns .410
Mavericks .399
Bucks .397
Knicks .395
Warriors .393
Kiings .391
Blazers .390

February
.400+: 4
.390+: 10

Real Life
.400+: 2
.390+: 2

So much for the FG% theory. Teams are hitting threes at a high clip and that compensates for the lower FG% (if anything, it explains where it's coming from).

TEAM FT%
.791 Pacers
.788 Mavericks
.776 Thunder
.776 Nets
.774 Rockets
.771 Kings
.769 Raptors
.765 Hornets
.764 Heat
.763 Knicks
.762 Wolves

February
.800+: 0
.780+: 2
.760+: 11

Real Life
.800+: 1
.780+: 5
.760+: 16

LOL. Are FTs really the reason why? I wouldn't have expected that one. Not really sure what to make of it or what could even be done about it.

TEAM RANKINGS

WEST RANKINGS
1. Rockets (9th) - Healthy Yao and T-Mac plays a "slight" factor here.
2. Jazz (3rd)
3. Spurs (6th)
4. Lakers (1st)
5. Suns (5th)
6. Nuggets (2nd)
7. Navericks (4th)
8. Blazers (7th)
9. Thunder (8th)
10. Warriors (14th)
11. Kings (13th)
12. Clippers (12th)
13. Hornets (11th)
14. Grizzlies (10th)
15. Wolves (15th)

Take out those obviously asterisked Rockets and we've got the top 8 playoff teams, albeit in scattered order. No complaints here. The only thing that could make it better would be swapping the Grizzlies and Warriors.

EAST RANKINGS (Real Life in parenthasize)
1. Cavaliers (1st)
2. Magic (3rd)
3. Celtics (2nd)
4. Hawks (4th)
5. Knicks (10th) - Ugh
6. Raptors (5th)
7. Sixers (11th) - Chill
8. Nets (15th) - LOL
9. Bucks (9th)
10. Bobcats (6th)
11. Wizards (13th)
12. Bulls (8th)
13. Pacers (12th)
14. Heat (7th) - They're free falling, but that's obviously a stretch.
15. Pistons (14th)


Could be better, could be worse. East is pretty much a crap shoot beyond the top 4 anyway.


AWARDS

MVP: LeBron James (26.8 pts, 8.3 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.2 stl, 1.2 blk)
ROY: Tyreke Evans (18.1 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.6 ast, 1.9 stl, 0.5 blk)
SMY: Marcus Camby (6.9 pts, 11.7 reb, 1.2 ast, 0.4 stl, 2.2 blk
DPY: Josh Smith (16.7 pts, 9.9 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.4 stl, 2.9 blk)
MIP: Danilo Gallinari (14.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.1 blk)
COY: Mike Brown

December Results
MVP: LeBron James (31.8 pts, 9.4 reb, 7.4 ast, 2.4 stl, 1.2 blk)
ROY: Tyreke Evans (13.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.9 stl, 0.6 blk)
SMY: Tracy McGrady (13.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.3 blk
DPY: Josh Smith (18.0 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 2.8 blk)
MIP: Chris Douglas-Roberts (15.0 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 0.7 stl, 0.9 blk)
COY: George Karl

Real Life Predictions
MVP: LeBron James
ROY: Tyreke Evans
SMY: Jamal Crawford
DPY: Dwight Howard (dark horse: Gerald Wallace)
MIP: Ersan Ilyasova (dark horse: Danilo Gallinari)
COY: Mike Brown (dark horse: Scott Brooks)

LeBron's stats dropped across the board since the last sim, and they're actually more realistic now.
Evans' shot tendencies were fixed and that's given him realistic point production (slight drops in reb and ast dont hurt either).
Camby is a 6th man when Blake Griffin is healthy. Can't really do much about that. I'd still rather have him take the award than T-Mac.
While not related to his DPOY award, good to see Josh Smith gave us a realistic assist total this time (as well as decreased scoring).
CDR ain't starting in Jersey anymore, which puts the award back in Gallinari's hands (as it was in previous simulations).

February All-NBA Teams (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
PG: Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams
SG: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Monta Ellis
SF: LeBron James, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant
PF: Chris Bosh, Josh Smith, Pau Gasol
C: Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson

December All-NBA Teams (1st, 2nd, 3rd)
PG: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Baron Davis
SG: Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Joe Johnson
SF: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala
PF: Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith
C: Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson

PG is great, the top 3 players are there, and Rondo ahead of Deron is minor.
I would have liked to see Roy get the 3rd SG spot but I suppose the last one is always going to be a bit of a crap shoot.
I'm a little annoyed that Iggy keeps beating Melo out for the 3rd team. J.R. Smith is canceling out Melo's 99 shot tendency. I might have to look into that.
Duncan would rank at PF if I didn't have him at C, but what's with Josh Smith continuing to make the team? Dirk averaged 25 ppg and Smith made it over him.
Wolves had the league's worst record, it'd be nice to see Jefferson's stats to not be given such high regard (esp since Dirk missed the team at PF with better stats). At the least I would have liked to see Yao since his team was #1. Or even David Lee since the Knicks were inexplicably 5th. Whatever.

Real Life Predictions
1st: Bryant (G), Wade (G), James (F), Bosh (F), Howard (C)
2nd: Williams (G), Roy (G), Durant (F), Nowitzki (F), Duncan (C)
3rd: Paul (G), Johnson (G), Anthony (F), Wallace (F), Gasol (C)

There are so many good forwards in the league that they're going to have to count Duncan and Gasol as centers. Dwight Howard and Al Horford are the only centers going to the all-star game in either conference this season - nuff said.


February All-Defensive Teams (1st, 2nd)
PG: Jason Kidd, Tyreke Evans
SG: Dwyane Wade, Trevor Ariza
SF: Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala
PF: Josh Smith, Pau Gasol
C: Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan

December All-Defensive Teams (1st, 2nd)
PG: Tyreke Evans, Rajon Rondo
SG: Dwyane Wade, Trevor Ariza
SF: Gerald Wallace, LeBron James
PF: Josh Smith, Chris Bosh
C: Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan

Kidd over the league leader in steals? Are you kidding me?
Iguodala over LeBron due to LeBron's steals being cut in half.

Real Life Predictions
1st: Rondo, Bryant, Wallace, Smith, Howard
2nd: Wade, Battier, James, Garnett, Duncan

Durant is my sleeper pick to make it over Battier.

February All-Rookie Teams (1st, 2nd)
PG: Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry
SG: James Harden, Demar DeRozan
SF: Omri Casspi, Jonas Jerebko
PF: Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka
C: DeJuan Blair, Hasheem Thabeet

December All-Rookie Teams (1st, 2nd)
PG: Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings
SG: James Harden, Marcus Thornton
SF: Terrence Williams, Derrick Brown
PF: Blake Griffin, Tyler Hansbrough
C: DeJuan Blair, Hasheem Thabeet

As usual, the position restrictions are hella annoying as only two PGs can be selected (thus snubbing Jennings this time). At least SF was fixed this time around.

Real Life Predictions:
1st: Evans (G), Jennings (G), Casspi (F), Harden (F), Blair (C)
2nd: Curry (G), Flynn (G), Jerebko (F), Gibson (F), Ibaka (C)

Hopefully the NBA does the right thing and rids us of position restrictions on the rookie teams. Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, Demar DeRozan, and Marcus Thornton deserve more recognition than Serge Ibaka. I'd even take Lawson over Harden but we can't exactly list him as a forward.

PLAYOFF TREE

As usual, expect 2K's sim engine to get reamed by unrealistic results.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Rockets (NBA Champions)
2. Jazz (lose in conference finals 1-4)
3. Spurs (lose in second round 3-4)
4. Lakers (lose in second round 3-4)
5. Suns (lose in first round 1-4)
6. Mavericks (lose in first round 1-4)
7. Nuggets (lose in first round 3-4)
8. Blazers (lose to in first round 1-4)

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Magic (lose in NBA Finals 3-4)
2. Cavaliers (Swept in first round by 7th seed Sixers. This game is so retarded!)
3. Celtics (lose in first round 2-4 to 6th seed Raptors)
4. Hawks (lose in first round 1-4 to 5th seed Knicks)
5. Knicks (swept in second round by Magic)
6. Raptors (lose in conference finals 1-4)
7. Sixers (lose in second round 3-4 to 6th seed Raptors)
8. Nets (lose in first round 1-4)

Yao Ming is your 2010 Finals MVP. High five 2K for coming up with the one result that had absolutely no chance of ever occuring this season.

In other news, Andre Iguodala is apparently just too damn much for LeBron James. Moving on.

NBA OFF-SEASON

PLAYER RETIREMENTS
Kurt Thomas
Francisco Elson
Lindsey Hunter
Cuttino Mobley
Derek Fisher
Chucky Atkins
Grant Hill
Kevin Ollie
Juwan Howard

At least Camby didn't retire this time. I don't think Fisher will retire but it's not entirely unrealistic.

COACH RETIREMENTS
George Karl

Last time only Jerry Sloan retired (sometimes Karl, Sloan, and Adelman will all quit at once). The only semi-realistic thing about this is Karl's contract is up at the end of the year, and it was leaked that he's not returning to Denver. So it's a remote possibility.


2010 FREE AGENT PERIOD


LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson all re-signed with their teams before hitting the market, which is exactly what happened in the last simulation (actually, Amare joined them this time). I've already criticized 2K in the past that teams are allowed to re-sign players before they hit the open market, something that just does not happen in real life.

That leaves the following players to pick from

PGs
79 N.Robinson
78 Felton - Restricted (Not supposed to be restricted, but he is)
76 Lowry - Restricted
74 Foye
73 W.Bynum - Restricted
70 Telfair
68 Boykins
68 Duhon
67 Alston
65 Watson
65 J.Williams
64 S.Rodriguez
64 Tinsley
64 Blake

SGs
81 Ginobili
76 McGrady
72 L.Hughes
70 S.Brown
69 F.Murray
67 Redick (Supposed to be restricted, but he's not)
67 T.Allen
66 Bell

SFs
81 Gay - Restricted
76 J.Howard
67 Morrow
66 Alexander
66 A.Wright
66 J.Graham

PFs
87 Boozer
78 T.Thomas - Restricted
76 Scola
74 Harrington
73 Camby
71 Outlaw
70 Amundson
69 Warrick
67 S.Williams
66 Haslem
64 A.Johnson

C
81 Lee
76 J.O'Neal
74 S.O'Neal
73 Gooden
68 Krstic - Turned down his 5.8 Player Option, looks like I need to delete that.
68 Hayes - Team turned down his ridiculously cheap 2.1 Team Option.
68 B.Wallace
68 Dampier
66 Haywood


Your 2010 Knicks
C David Lee (81)
PF Jared Jeffries (66)
SF Rudy Gay (81)
SG Wilson Chandler (76)
PG Nate Robinson (79)
Bench
SF Danilo Gallinari (74)
PG Chris Duhon (68)
SG J.J. Redick (67)
PF Jordan Hill (68)
PG Toney Douglas (69)
PF Amir Johnson (64) - He'll be higher rated when I actually get around to him.
C Eddy Curry (60)

That's about the best they can do in a season where the only all-star that hit the open market was Carlos Boozer. It certainly beats last time where I ended up with T-Mac and Kyle Lowry.


Geez this took a long time.