SPOILERS: Either Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, or Russell Westbrook will be snubbed from the All-Star team today by the coaches (partly owing to the coach voting restriction of two Guards, three Front Court, two Wild Cards).
Using Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating I want to examine who the top options are at each position, as well as reflect on last season to see if we can discern any trends.
Players are sorted by WS (minimum 3.0, with only notable exceptions). Data as of 1/28.
2015 EAST GUARDS
7.3 Jimmy Butler (20.9 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
6.1 Kyle Lowry (22.0 PER) - STARTER
5.7 Jeff Teague (22.5 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
5.4 Kyrie Irving (20.3 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
5.3 John Wall (21.1 PER) - STARTER
5.1 Kyle Korver (15.8 PER)
3.9 Kemba Walker (18.7 PER)
3.8 Brandon Knight (18.3 PER)
3.6 Louis Williams (19.6 PER)
3.3 Brandon Jennings (19.5 PER)
3.1 Khris Middleton (15.3 PER)
2.3 Dwyane Wade (22.5 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
The argument that Kyle Korver should be the Hawks' fourth all-star is starting to make waves, but I think at the end of the day Kyrie Irving and Dwayne Wade still have to get respect. Last year these guys were starters, and it's not like their games have slipped! Korver would be my choice as an injury replacement, which is how players of his ilk usually make the team. Anyone really serious about Korver should take a look at the list of west players that WON'T make the team.
2014 EAST GUARDS
7.3 Kyle Lowry (20.4 PER)
5.2 Lance Stephenson (15.9 PER)
4.7 George Hill (14.0 PER)
4.5 John Wall (19.8 PER) - RESERVE
4.4 DeMar DeRozan (17.9 PER) - RESERVE
3.8 Kyrie Irving (20.2 PER) - STARTER
3.6 Kyle Korver (13.9 PER)
3.3 Dwyane Wade (21.3 PER) - STARTER
3.0 Kemba Walker (17.9 PER)
2.6 Joe Johnson (14.9 PER) - RESERVE
Last season's Pacers team is a great example of why we shouldn't go crazy over team record. And oh man does Kyle Lowry's snub for Joe Johnson look extremely foolish in hindsight. NBA coaches are human too!
2015 EAST FRONT COURT
5.6 Pau Gasol (22.2 PER) - STARTER
5.5 LeBron James (26.1 PER) - STARTER
5.3 Al Horford (21.3 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
5.3 Paul Millsap (19.9 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
5.0 Kevin Love (18.9 PER)
4.7 Jonas Valanciunas (20.4 PER)
4.3 Nikola Vucevic (22.1 PER)
4.1 Marcin Gortat (16.9 PER)
4.0 Patrick Patterson (15.7 PER)
3.9 DeMarre Carroll (14.4 PER)
3.9 Greg Monroe (20.7 PER)
3.8 Tristan Thompson (16.0 PER)
3.8 Paul Pierce (16.6 PER)
3.6 Andre Drummond (20.0 PER)
3.4 Chris Bosh (21.0 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
3.4 Tyler Zeller (19.5 PER)
3.3 Luol Deng (17.0 PER)
3.2 Mason Plumlee (20.1 PER)
3.2 Jared Sullinger (18.2 PER)
3.1 Taj Gibson (16.8 PER)
3.1 Jared Dudley (13.9 PER)
3.0 Amir Johnson (15.6 PER)
3.0 Giannis Antetokounmpo (14.7 PER)
2.7 Carmelo Anthony (21.6 PER) - STARTER
Millsap was an all-star last season on similar production. Horford would have been a lock had he not suffered a season-ending injury. Statistically those guys are stars, the Hawks record only confirms that they'll get love from the coaches. I think Bosh has the inside track for the final spot even though the Heat aren't playing well. Kevin Love's individual production is not up to it's usual standard and it's difficult to justify his place at the game, even though his team is winning more than Bosh's. Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Vucevic, and Greg Monroe aren't established enough yet to uproot a star like Bosh.
2014 EAST FRONT COURT
9.0 LeBron James (28.7 PER) - STARTER
7.5 Paul George (22.0 PER) - STARTER
6.0 Carmelo Anthony (24.9 PER) - STARTER
5.3 Joakim Noah (19.1 PER) - RESERVE
5.2 Andre Drummond (21.4 PER)
4.9 Chris Bosh (20.5 PER) - RESERVE
4.5 Roy Hibbert (16.5 PER) - RESERVE
4.3 Paul Millsap (20.3 PER) - RESERVE
4.2 David West (16.6 PER)
4.0 Anderson Varejao (17.5 PER)
3.9 Trevor Ariza (15.9 PER)
3.9 Amir Johnson (15.3 PER)
3.8 Arron Afflalo (17.6 PER)
3.7 Marcin Gortat (15.9 PER)
3.6 Al Jefferson (21.5 PER)
3.4 Mike Dunleavy (13.6 PER)
3.4 DeMarre Carroll (13.1 PER)
3.3 Josh McRoberts (13.4 PER)
3.3 Martell Webster (12.8 PER)
3.1 Greg Monroe (17.5 PER)
3.1 Spencer Hawes (16.8 PER)
3.1 Brandon Bass (15.1 PER)
3.1 Jonas Valanciunas (14.7 PER)
3.0 Al Horford (22.2 PER)
3.0 Luol Deng (16.7 PER)
3.0 Taj Gibson (15.2 PER)
I was no fan of Roy Hibbert making the All-Star team, and he got exposed in the second half of the season. In hindsight I'm sure most would have rather taken Jefferson. As stated before, Horford would have been a lock if not for his injury.
2015 WEST GUARDS
9.9 James Harden (27.9 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
8.3 Stephen Curry (27.0 PER) - STARTER
8.2 Chris Paul (24.7 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
7.1 Damian Lillard (22.1 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
5.9 Klay Thompson (22.7 PER) - PROJECTED INJURY REPLACEMENT
4.9 Wesley Matthews (16.0 PER)
4.6 Ty Lawson (19.3 PER)
4.5 Mike Conley (20.1 PER)
4.5 Eric Bledsoe (19.5 PER)
4.0 Russell Westbrook (27.2 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
4.0 Danny Green (15.3 PER)
3.8 Darren Collison (17.9 PER)
3.8 Goran Dragic (17.5 PER)
3.4 Isaiah Thomas (20.0 PER)
3.4 Cory Joseph (15.8 PER)
3.4 Courtney Lee (13.3 PER)
3.3 J.J. Redick (14.9 PER)
3.1 Jrue Holiday (18.6 PER)
3.0 Monta Ellis (18.4 PER)
0.1 Kobe Bryant (17.5 PER) - STARTER
Allow me to break the day's biggest news story in advance. Klay Thompson will get snubbed. The coaches can only take a maximum of four guards, and Klay is number five on that list. Kobe Bryant's starting nod from the fans (which really should have gone to James Harden) is what's keeping Klay from getting selected, not the coaches.
Expect Commissioner Adam Silver to make a quick announcement that Klay will be Kobe's injury replacement, to brush this under the rug. Klay and the Warriors are having a phenomenal year and there is no doubt the NBA wants him in the big game.
2014 WEST GUARDS
7.0 Chris Paul (27.4 PER) - RESERVE
6.8 Stephen Curry (22.8 PER) - STARTER
5.8 Goran Dragic (21.8 PER)
5.7 James Harden (21.1 PER) - RESERVE
5.5 Damian Lillard (18.8 PER) - RESERVE
5.4 Mike Conley (21.2 PER)
5.4 Wesley Matthews (17.3 PER)
5.0 Isaiah Thomas (21.3 PER)
4.8 Ty Lawson (20.1 PER)
4.4 Tony Parker (20.1 PER) - RESERVE
4.1 Kevin Martin (17.0 PER)
3.9 Klay Thompson (13.7 PER)
3.8 Jose Calderon (15.4 PER)
3.5 Manu Ginobili (19.3 PER)
3.4 Darren Collison (17.2 PER)
3.3 Jamal Crawford (16.9 PER)
3.3 Ricky Rubio (15.2 PER)
3.2 Gerald Green (15.4 PER)
3.0 Reggie Jackson (16.0 PER)
3.0 Marco Belinelli (15.0 PER)
3.0 Jeremy Lamb (14.9 PER)
-0.3 Kobe Bryant (11.3 PER) - STARTER
This makes the second straight season that Kobe Bryant has not deserved All-Star status. Fans will surely be in an uproar over Klay's snubbing, but they have no one to look at but themselves. Want to avoid this scenario next year? Stop voting for Kobe. His time has passed. Let him earn it.
Tony Parker's selection over Goran Dragic was dubious last year, however the position is so stacked this year that there's no shot of a questionable player making it.
2015 WEST FRONT COURT
9.2 Anthony Davis (31.8 PER) - STARTER
6.7 DeAndre Jordan (20.2 PER)
6.6 Tyson Chandler (21.0 PER)
6.1 Marc Gasol (22.6 PER) - STARTER
6.0 Blake Griffin (22.9 PER) - STARTER
4.9 LaMarcus Aldridge (22.4 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
4.7 Tim Duncan (22.1 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
4.7 Dirk Nowitzki (21.4 PER)
4.7 Draymond Green (15.9 PER)
4.5 Gordon Hayward (19.9 PER)
4.4 Derrick Favors (22.3 PER)
4.3 Zach Randolph (21.3 PER)
4.2 Harrison Barnes (13.8 PER)
3.9 Rudy Gobert (21.8 PER)
3.8 Kevin Durant (28.6 PER) - PROJECTED RESERVE
3.8 Rudy Gay (19.6 PER)
3.7 Chandler Parsons (16.2 PER)
3.7 Serge Ibaka (15.8 PER)
3.6 DeMarcus Cousins (25.7 PER)
3.5 Trevor Ariza (11.9 PER)
3.4 Ed Davis (18.0 PER)
3.3 Kawhi Leonard (20.0 PER)
3.2 Gorgui Dieng (18.1 PER)
3.1 Markieff Morris (17.0 PER)
3.1 Ryan Anderson (16.4 PER)
3.0 Donatas Motiejunas (13.9 PER)
Picking the PF/C reserves is really difficult. Do we honor Cousins' numbers or do we honor Dirk and Duncan due to the winning ways of the Mavericks and Spurs? In the end I chose Duncan (this might be his final All-Star game) but would not be upset if Cousins made it. With the game being played in New York I wouldn't be upset with Tyson Chandler getting the call as an injury replacement if Aldridge can't go.
2014 WEST FRONT COURT
12.0 Kevin Durant (31.1 PER) - STARTER
8.6 Kevin Love (26.8 PER) - STARTER
7.1 Blake Griffin (22.9 PER) - STARTER
6.2 DeAndre Jordan (17.2 PER)
5.9 Anthony Davis (26.8 PER) - INJURY REPLACEMENT
5.9 Dirk Nowitzki (23.8 PER) - RESERVE
5.9 LaMarcus Aldridge (23.3 PER) - RESERVE
5.6 David Lee (19.3 PER)
5.4 Dwight Howard (21.1 PER) - RESERVE
5.5 Nikola Pekovic (20.7 PER)
5.1 Serge Ibaka (19.1 PER)
5.1 Chandler Parsons (16.8 PER)
4.6 Robin Lopez (16.8 PER)
4.5 DeMarcus Cousins (26.5 PER)
4.4 Nicolas Batum (15.9 PER)
4.3 Andrew Bogut (17.2 PER)
4.2 Tim Duncan (21.5 PER)
4.0 Terrence Jones (18.5 PER)
4.0 Kawhi Leonard (17.6 PER)
3.8 Channing Frye (15.5 PER)
3.5 Markieff Morris (19.1 PER)
3.4 Andre Iguodala (14.4 PER)
3.2 P.J. Tucker (13.2 PER)
3.1 Kenneth Faried (18.4 PER)
3.0 Boris Diaw (15.2 PER)
Anthony Davis was snubbed last season, which is why Klay Thompson shouldn't feel too badly about it. Dwight Howard really fell off and doesn't have a realistic chance of being taken again anytime soon. Dirk isn't as good as he was last season, and the field is a bit more crowded than it was.
If the format allowed, I would take Klay as a "frontcourt" player and not lose any sleep. Still, it's a tall order to be snub both Dirk and Duncan when they're still this good. Especially when Kobe Bryant doesn't even have to play a game next season and he'll still get voted in.
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