Friday, November 12, 2010

The Real NBA 2K11 [11-12-10]

New roster uploaded to xbox 360. Have to run, so I can't provide many details at the moment.

Notable rating edits include
95 - LeBron James (-1)
94 - Dwyane Wade (-1)
93 - Chris Paul (+2)
93 - Kobe Bryant (+1)
93 - Dwight Howard (+1)
85 - Pau Gasol (+1) (Switch to C)
84 - Chris Bosh (-1)
83 - Dirk Nowitzki (+1)
83 - Monta Ellis (+2)
83 - Al Horford (+3)
82 - Paul Millsap (+4)
82 - Rudy Gay (+2)
79 - Joakim Noah (+2)
79 - Gilbert Arenas (-2) (Switch to PG)
78 - Roy Hibbert (+4)
77 - Kirk Hinrich (+3) (Switch to SG)
76 - Ray Allen (+1)
75 - Richard Jefferson (+1)
75 - Mike Conley (+2)
73 - J.J. Hickson (+5)
73 - Shannon Brown (+2)
72 - Evan Turner (-4)
70 - Dorell Wright (+6)
70 - Arron Afflalo (+2)
67 - Josh McRoberts (+11)
67 - Quincy Pondexter (+5)
66 - Jason Smith (+10)
66 - Eric Bledsoe (+2)
66 - Derek Fisher (+1)
65 - James Jones (+4)

There were many others (Raptors, Mavericks, Jazz, Spurs, Clippers, Cavaliers rotation players), but that is the bulk of them. Some teams have extensive work and are completed. Others have barely been touched. The barely touched teams include: Kings, Nets, Pistons, Suns, Thunder, Wolves. Suns and Thunder I already have the ratings for, just haven't gotten around to re-implementing them. The others are small market teams that usually aren't in demand. I have edits for key Kings players like Cousins, Dalembert, Udrih, and Casspi, just haven't gotten a chance to re-implement them (I can only edit so many players in a given week). It goes without saying that you don't need to point out players on those teams as being over/underrated; I'm already aware, and would prefer focus on the teams/players that HAVE been edited.

By next week I should be up to where I was last month before the roster reset (technically further along, since I've added to my edit list since then).

Tendencies (including Touch) have been re-edited as I edit each individual player. Same goes for sig layups/dunks, contracts, and some accessories. Haven't focused much on the accessories this week because the ratings are much more important at this stage and I'd like to have them completed by Christmas, taking into account the various changes that will be made along the way.

As far as a PS3 roster goes, ffaacc is working on it. I do not know when he will able to release, nor do I know his exact progress. At this point his file should have various differences from mine. I believe he would have an edited Suns and Thunder team, for example.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

SRS Rankings [11-08-10]

I know it's still early in the NBA season, but after about 7 games for each team, the eastern conference looks like an absolute joke. I've ranked each team using SRS (Simple Rating System), which basically weighs point differential and opponent quality.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
13.80 Lakers
11.31 Nuggets
10.11 Hornets
5.97 Mavericks
4.84 Spurs
3.81 Rockets
3.69 Suns
2.28 Blazers
1.96 Warriors
-0.15 Jazz
-1.30 Grizzlies
-3.84 Clippers
-5.97 Kings
-6.12 Thunder
-15.15 Wolves

EASTERN CONFERENCE
12.38 Heat
7.26 Magic
4.89 Celtics
1.64 Hawks
0.80 Knicks
-1.34 Bulls
-2.07 Sixers
-2.89 Raptors
-3.86 Bucks
-5.08 Cavaliers
-5.19 Nets
-6.54 Pistons
-7.56 Pacers
-7.66 Bobcats
-11.09 Wizards

Only 5 teams in the east have a positive SRS rating, while there are 9 teams in the west with a positive rating. The Raptors are the 8th best east team with -2.89 SRS and there are 11 teams in the west that post a better rating than that. The Warriors are 9th in the west with a 1.96 rating, but would rank 4th in the east.

Based on SRS, the Lakers/Heat Finals we've been predicting all summer seems inevitable pending any serious injuries. And while it is early, it's worth noting that the Celtics were the dominant SRS team early last season, and look where they ended up.

What does this have to do with 2K rosters? Well, SRS is usually a bit more useful than the actual standings. For instance, the Rockets are 6th in the west with a 3.81 SRS rating despite a 1-5 record. They have had an EXTREMELY difficult schedule, and their losses have been close.

2 point road loss to Lakers (13.80)
4 point road loss to Warriors (1.96) (No Yao)
13 point home loss to Nuggets (11.31)
8 point home loss to Hornets (10.11)
3 point road loss to Spurs (4.84) (No Yao)
26 point home win to Wolves (-15.15)

The Rockets faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference and played them competitively. When they played the league's worst team, they smashed them. Their next game is against the Wizards (the 2nd worst team in the league), followed by the Pacers, so one would think they'd be set to build some momentum (injury to Aaron Brooks notwithstanding).

The Rockets are obviously a better team than the 1-6 Wolves, who are getting blown out in every game. Win-Loss record doesn't paint that picture. Aside from the 26 point drubbing by Houston, they've also been blown out by 32 by Miami and 42 by Orlando. Not all losses are created equally. SRS indicates Houston should be a playoff team so long as they maintain their current level of production, while Minnesota doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.


What does this have to do with 2K Ratings?

I'm still working on getting my roster back to where it was one month ago, but I still feel it is worth it to make comparisons between team ratings in my roster, and the current SRS rankings.

WEST
84.5 Jazz (85-84-81)
82.5 Lakers (89-76-83)
82.5 Thunder (88-77-82)
80.5 Spurs (83-78-81)
80.0 Nuggets (76-84-75)
78.0 Mavericks (81-75-75)
78.0 Grizzlies (73-83-76)
76.0 Blazers (79-73-76)
75.0 Suns (70-80-73)
74.5 Warriors (70-79-74)
72.0 Rockets (72-72-74)
72.0 Clippers (76-68-70)
71.0 Kings (70-72-72)
71.0 Hornets (67-75-70)
61.0 Wolves (61-61-66)

EAST (DEF-OFF-OVR)
87.0 Celtics (91-83-83)
85.5 Heat (90-81-83)
84.5 Magic (89-80-84)
83.5 Bucks (90-75-83)
81.5 Knicks (77-86-77)
79.0 Bulls (90-68-79)
79.0 Bobcats (87-71-77)
77.5 Hawks (80-75-74)
77.5 Sixers (79-76-75)
75.5 Wizards (75-76-71)
74.0 Cavaliers (82-66-73)
71.5 Pacers (72-71-68)
69.5 Pistons (72-67-68)
69.0 Nets (71-67-70)
65.0 Raptors (67-63-64)

OVERRATED TEAMS
THUNDER - The offense is 21st, which isn't anything new, but the defense has fallen off a cliff, all the way down to 23rd. Nenad Krstic has yet to block a shot through 8 games. As NBA 2K has surely told you by now, OKC lead the league in blocks last season, so that's a huge blow.

CELTICS - It might sound funny to say that about a 6-1 team, but they aren't playing like the league's best. Pierce, Allen, and Garnett have been playing sub-par thus far. While the O'Neal's haven't really pulled their weight. They are 3rd defensively, but only 17th offensively. The only reason they are 6-1 right now is the brilliance of Rondo and a fairly easy schedule. They barely squeaked by the Bucks and Bulls in OT games. Their next three games are on the road against the Mavericks, Heat, and Grizzlies, so that should sort itself out.

BOBCATS
Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace have not played well this season. Wallace's offensive boards, steals, and blocks are all majorly down from last season, and those areas are the reason why he was an all-star last season.

UNDERRATED TEAMS
LAKERS - The Lakers are the #1 offensive team with an incredible and surely unsustainable 118.4 ORTG. Odom has an unheard of .676 TS%, followed by Blake .642 TS%, Brown .637 TS%, and Fisher .618 TS%. Those numbers will obviously not sustain themselves, but they are impressive considering the team is currently without Andrew Bynum. It's worth noting the lack of Bynum has had a negative impact on the team's defense (only 10th this season), and they'll surely want him back once those hot hands start fizzling. Still, they clearly deserve a higher offensive rating than 13th.

HORNETS - They are easily the most underrated team in the entire league. Chris Paul has turned Jason Smith into the next Birdman. Okafor and West are playing out of their minds, not to mention Paul has reverted back to the 30 PER player he was in 2009. Okafor is actually living up to his contract, posting 22.8 PER, .734 TS%, 24.7 DRB%, and 6.1 BLK%, and only 7.3 TO%. Give Monty Williams coach of the year now if they keep playing like this.

RAPTORS - Obviously underrated, but I haven't re-implemented my ratings for them yet (they should be around Warriors territory with the changes).

--------------------------------------------

Those are the main changes that need to be made, and I'll start working on that in the next roster update.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Analysis of NBA 2K11 [11-08-10] Roster - 2K Sports actually listened to me!

EDIT: Now includes analysis from 2K's 11-08-10 roster.

After 5 years of making these complaints, my pleas have finally been heard. I recently wrote in my analysis of 2K's 10-28-10 roster that a lot of free agents besides Allen Iverson deserve to be removed from the FA pool. This week, the following players were removed from 2K's 11-05-10 rosters

EDIT: Additionally, 2K responded to my initial post and removed more players from their 11-08-10 roster.

POINT GUARD
Brevin Knight
Stephon Marbury
Lindsey Hunter
Willie Solomon - NEW
Sean Singletary - NEW
Kevin Ollie - NEW
Jacque Vaughn - NEW

Lynn Greer
Jared Jordan
Salim Stoudamire - NEW
Vassilis Spanoulis

SHOOTING GUARD
Allen Iverson (in the previous update)
Kirk Snyder - Looks like I lost my own bet. It's my own fault. I better barricade my doors because Snyder is surely coming for me when he gets out of prison and pops NBA 2K13 into his video game system.

SMALL FORWARD
Wally Szczerbiak - NEW
Greg Buckner - NEW
Viktor Khryapa - NEW
Ryan Bowen - NEW

Brandon Wallace - Part of me kinda feels guilty for robbing guys like this of their one connection to the NBA. Oh well.

POWER FORWARD
Malik Rose
Devon Hardin
Mark Madsen
Jackie Butler - NEW

CENTER
Fabricio Oberto
Chris Mihm - NEW
Mark Blount - NEW
Calvin Booth - NEW

Jerome James
Ha Seung-Jin

----------------------------------------------------

That's 15 players in one fell swoop! Unfortunately, the following players remain in the free agent pool.

POINT GUARD
Antonio Daniels - Did not play anywhere last season, and the same can be said of this season. He is 35 years old. He is done. He still has a 60 dunk rating, which is pretty high for a PG ( a reason why these players NEED to be removed if they're not going to be edited).

Will Solomon - Signed a long-term European deal when he left the NBA after one season in 2009. He is 32 years old, and surely not coming back.

Kevin Ollie - He retired to become a college coach. Why is he still in the game???

Jacque Vaughn - Retired! If anything, just move him to the 98 Jazz team!

Salim Stoudamire - Has not played anywhere since leaving the NBA three years ago. Time to cut bait.

SHOOTING GUARDS
Greg Buckner - He's done. He made his money. He's 34 years old.

SMALL FORWARD
Wally Szczerbiak - He is retired. He had a knee injury he opted not to come back from. He has a 90 mid-range rating. Get him out of here.

Justin Reed - Hasn't been on the NBA radar sine leaving in 2007.

Viktor Khryapa - Seems pretty happy in Europe, and shouldn't be coming back.

Ryan Bowen - Unofficially retired. He is 35 years old and had no desire to play international ball since getting cut by the Thunder one year ago. He is clearly done.

POWER FORWARD
Jackie Butler - The guy has not step foot on a basketball court since getting cut by the Rockets nearly 4 years ago. He has literally vanished off the map, and is surely at home counting his money after getting a 3 years and 10 million deal out of 740 highly effective garbage time minutes with the Knicks.

CENTER
Chris Mihm - He isn't officially retired, but he might as well be. Unlikely to play again due to injury. Hasn't taken the court since 2008, and missed the entire 2007 season. It has been 5 years since he was a relevant NBA player. He's not playing internationally anywhere. He is 31 years old. He is done.

Mark Blount - Didn't play anywhere last year, or this year. 35 years old. Easy retirement.

Calvin Booth - He is retired, and working in the Kings organization.

--------------------------------------------------------

As one can see, there are just as many players that still need to join them (I listed 14, but wouldn't mind 20 more joining them). Players who should be on notice (conditionally removed in 2K12) are as follows:

POINT GUARD
Mike James - Played 4 games last season, is not signed anywhere this season. Was last seen begging the Heat for a job, but all spots are filled. He is 35 years old.

Anthony Johnson - Played only 31 games last season, and seems to have quietly ridden off into the sunset. Could have easily gotten a training camp invite if Chucky Atkins somehow managed to get one. He is 36 years old.

Chucky Atkins - Went to camp with the Suns this year but was released fairly early. Assuming no team signs him this season, he is an easy removal. He will be 37 years old next season.

Damon Jones - Briefly played in Italy last season, which is why I'm okay with him being in the FA pool. He'll be 35 next season though, and a return is not imminent.

SHOOTING GUARD
None - I'd make some arguments for Ricky Davis but I truly don't mind if he's still playing internationally.

SMALL FORWARD
Michael Finley - If he doesn't play this season (it's extremely unlikely that he will), he should be immediately removed. He'll be 38 next season.

Devean George - If he doesn't sign anywhere in the world this season.

Trenton Hassell - Ditto.

Desmond Mason - Ditto.

Jonathan Bender - Ditto, with the added notation that he was already retired for four years and probably isn't interested in playing internationally.

Awvee Storey - He'll be 34 next season, is off the NBA radar, and I generally don't like him for cracking Martynas Andriuskevicius' skull during a D-League game.

POWER FORWARD
Michael Ruffin - Nearly retired this season before playing internationally again. He will be 34 next season and hasn't been a quality NBA player in, well, ever.

Jamal Sampson - Hasn't been on NBA radar in awhile, last played in league in 2007. 5 years is pretty much my cutoff point.

Justin Williams - Basically the same as Sampson, except a year younger.

CENTER
Brian Skinner - If he doesn't play this season. He was the final cut of Bucks training camp, but at 34 years old you have to think he's near the end of the line.

Mikki Moore - Ditto, except he's 35.

-----------------------------------------

There are about 50 players that deserve to be ADDED to the free agent pool, and the only way that becomes feasible is if we cut the chaff from the wheat, and start cutting bait on players that, while they might bring back nostalgic feelings, are no longer realistic additions to NBA teams. The game would be better served adding any D-League callups that have actually graced an NBA roster in the last two years. Some of those players include...

POINT GUARD
Will Conroy
Mustafa Shakur
Cedric Jackson
Kenny Hasbrouck
Curtis Jerrells
JamesOn Curry

SHOOTING GUARD
Joe Crawford

SMALL FORWARD
Othyus Jeffers
Antonio Anderson

POWER FORWARD
Alexander Johnson
Alade Aminu

CENTER
Earl Barron
Greg Stiemsma
Brian Butch

-------------------------------------------

Of course, before 2K even considers working on that, they should focus on getting all the missing players that are ACTUALLY ON NBA ROSTERS into the game. Those players are...

Christian Eyenga (SG/SF) - Cavaliers (Has a guaranteed 4 year rookie deal. Come on.)
Manny Harris (SG/SF) - Cavaliers
Samardo Samuels (PF/C) - Cavaliers
Eugene Jeter (PG) - Kings
Ben Uzoh (PG) - Nets
Matt Janning (SG) - Suns
Garret Sliler (C) - Suns (Dwyane Jones remains on the team)

2K added the following players this week, so at least they're not slacking TOO terribly...

Sherron Collins (PG) - Bobcats
Semih Erden (C) - Celtics
Gary Forbes (SF/SG) - Nuggets
Solomon Alabi (C) - Raptors
Ishmael Smith (PG) - Rockets
Gary Neal (SG) - Spurs
Hamady N'Diaye (C) - Wizards

Seven players were added, and there are only seven left to be added, so hopefully 2K finishes things off this week.

-------------------------------------------------

Finally, while 2K spent some time removing and adding players, did they take any time to adjust existing players?

Keith Bogans - NEW
67 Overall (+2)
69 Medium (+19)

Bogans hasn't even taken a shot from mid-range this season. He was a whopping 4-13 in 1563 minutes last season. There's a reason 2/3 of his shots are threes. He has no mid-range game to speak of.

J.J. Hickson
72 Overall (+7)
75 LPS (+5)
59 Layup (+7)
77 Dunk (+6)
75 Hands (+10)
74 OffPost (+7)
64 DefPost (+4)
72 OffAwr (+12)
64 DefAwr (+16)
70 Consistency (+45)
83 Stamina (+5)
59 Speed (+8)
60 Quickness (+12)
89 Durability (+11)
78 Potential (+8)

Hickson was definitely underrated athletically, in the post, and his awareness was obviously underrated for a featured player. Solid edit.

Rajon Rondo
91 Overall (+2)
99 Pass (+4)
94 OffAwr (+9)
96 DefAwr (+2)

Rondo is apparently the smartest player since Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Not to mention the best passer since Stockton and Magic.

Chris Kaman - NEW
79 Overall (+1)
80 Consistency (+20)

Last year's biggest fluke all-star is not a consistent player, and it's puzzling to me why 2K is making this change NOW when Kaman has been abominable this season. On an unrelated note, he got hurt tonight and will miss the next 2-3 weeks.

Rudy Gay
84 Overall (+1)
82 Steal (+4)
59 PostDef (+2)
84 OffAwr (+2)
45 OffClutch (+10)
85 Consistency (+10)

Seven games in, Rudy is in the middle of a breakout season, in a quest to make Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley look like he actually has half a brain (or at the very least, lucky as hell). Interestingly, it's his scoring efficiency that has seen the biggest boost (.612 TS% from .532 last season), but the Insider didn't touch any of his shot ratings. Rudy is currently averaging 27.1 ppg, albeit in 42.0 mpg, while boasting incredible shooting percentages: .528 FG% (20.3 FGA), .452 3PT% (4.4 3PA), .867 FT% (4.3 FTA)

Michael Conley
78 Overall (+5)
83 Pass (+9)
78 Steal (+14)
78 Hands (+6)
82 OffAwr (+10)
75 Consistency (+15)
95 Stamina (+4)

After-effects of the contract week continue. Conley received a 5 year, 45 million dollar extension due to supposedly improved play. The only thing that's REALLY improved are Conley's minutes. He is getting 39 mpg compared to last season's 32 mpg, as the team's only backup is Acie Law. The main thing Conley has done is improve upon his AST% and STL% to levels that were expected of him when he was drafted 4th overall. His AST% is up to 32.3% from last season's 24.8%, while his steals have essentially doubled from 2.2% to a likely unsustainable 4.1%. His shooting is still a problem, however, with a career worst .499 TS%, which makes a 15 point boost in "Consistency" and 10 point boost to Offensive Awareness extremely curious.

Hasheem Thabeet
60 Overall (+2)
38 OffAwr (+13)

For what it's worth, that's exactly where I had Thabeet's offensive awareness. Perhaps it's coincidence, since I also took the time to edit more than one attribute.

Paul Millsap
79 Overall (+5)
94 Inside (+2)
80 LPS (+3)
69 FT (-5)
74 SIT (+4)
72 Hands (+11)
90 OffReb (+4)
83 DefReb (+5)
79 OffPost (+3)
70 DefPost (+1)
73 OffAwr (+15)
70 Consistency (+10)
87 Stamina (+10)
58 Speed (+9)
54 Quickness (+8)
95 Durability (+25)

As with Hickson, Millsap is in the middle of a career year and got similar boosts. The boost to his offensive rebounding is very puzzling however, since he has currently posted a career worst 9.5 ORB%, down from 9.9% last season, and well below his career average of 12.3%. Clearly not a player who should be 9 points away from the maximum rating.

Wilson Chandler
79 Overall (+5)
80 FT (-2)
67 LPS (+5)
71 SOD (+3)
62 Handle (+4)
54 OHD (+6)
50 Security (+2)
70 Block (+8)
66 Steal (+9)
73 Hands (+4)
80 OBD (+1)
65 OffReb (+24)
61 DefReb (+5)
62 OffPost (+4)
79 DefAwr (+7)
70 Consistency (+10)
84 Potential (+5)

A much needed handle boost for a player that was playing SG last season. His post game saw a boost, which is another welcome addition based on last season. Chandler's rebounds have shot up in real life thanks to the inept Amar'e Stoudemire taking the place of rebound guru David Lee. Normally I am not a fan of 2K's defensive rating boosts as they usually go against scale, but Chandler has earned them, at least through the first 5 games. Whether that is maintainable will be told with time. His BLK% is currently 5.2 against a 1.9 career average. If he can maintain that, he will deserve much more than a 70 - a block rate that high is akin to Josh Smith's.

Andy Rautins - NEW
58 Overall (-2)
45 DefAwr (-3)
30 Consistency (-15)

The fact that Andy Rautins was anywhere close to the top of the 2K Insider's priority list means he should be shot and killed on sight. There are hundreds of players who need editing. At least 100 who are off by 5-10 overall points. And yet, he is focusing on a scrub who was already low-rated to begin with, one that didn't even play a game until tonight (i.e. after the roster release). Tyson Chandler is rated 2 points worse than DeShawn Stevenson, but man, the Rautins haters must be banging down 2K's door!

Dwight Howard
89 Overall (+1)
50 Medium (+15)

For what it's worth, I made the exact same change. Howard is 6-10 from mid-range early in the year, as he actually has the green light to take the shot.

Luis Scola
80 Overall (+2)
83 Hands (+4)
92 OffReb (+12)
86 OffAwr (+4)

As with Millsap, where is the Insider's head at on these rebound ratings? Scola is boasting a career best 10.9 ORB%, but that's not deserving of a 92. His offensive rebounding is much improved from last season's 7.2, but the problem is that meant he was already overrated with his 80 OffReb rating. Thus the boost should have been half of what he got, and illustrates the problems that occur when one doesn't hold everyone to the same scale. Scola actually started to deserve his rating, but since he improved, he is overrated again. Strangely, Scola has doubled his block rate, but was left untouched in this regard. Not that I'm complaining persay, since 2K would have surely messed it up, but it'd be nice to see some consistency from them. If you're going to edit a player, analyze him from head to toe, don't focus solely on the ratings that fans were complaining about.

Roy Hibbert - NEW
73 Overall (+2)
77 LPS (+4)
91 Block (+2)
82 OffReb (+3)
78 PostOff (+5)
79 PostDef (+5)
67 OffAwr (+4)
35 DefClutch (+10)
65 Consistency (+10)

Hibbert gets a boost, but considering he's been underrated since last season, it's not nearly enough. Still trying to figure out what they think 36 year old Ben Wallace has over him.

Dorell Wright
73 Overall (+9)
84 Inside (+9)
84 3pt (+3)
58 Block (+5)
60 Steal (+12)
66 Hands (+5)
52 OffPost (+1)
45 DefPost (+5)
63 OffAwr (+27)
72 DefAwr (+20)
50 Consistency (+25)
56 Hustle (+10)
72 Durability (+9)

Aside from the obvious adjustments (awareness & consistency), Wright's edit is pretty weak. Inside boost puzzling for a guy shooting 37% on 2pters. Blocks overrated, steals underrated. Post defense is terrible for a SF. Guy is averaging 37 mpg and is running around with 77 stamina.

John Wall
84 Overall (+3)
78 FT (+3)
88 Pass (+4)
85 Steal (+8)
90 Hands (+2)
87 OffAwr (+5)
79 DefAwr (+2)
35 DefClutch (+10)
97 Speed (+1)

Don't disagree with the boosts, but man the rookie's ball handling is still ridiculously overrated, which is why he's a whopping 84 overall.

Andray Blatche - NEW
73 Overall (+1)
70 Consistency (+20)

Now if only he had the mid-range rating to make use of it...

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

One more for the road

Ran another sim, this time with updated playbooks for both teams.

BULLS (78 Overall) vs KNICKS (76 Overall)

GAME SETTINGS
Difficulty: All-Star
Quarters: 12 Minutes
Game Speed: Normal

SLIDER CHANGES
15 Dunk In Traffic success
15 Contact Shot success
55 Driving Contact Frequency
55 Inside Contact Frequency

BULLS
107 Points
36-83 FG (43%)
3-12 3PT (25%)
32-49 FT (65%) - Shows how lopsided victory was... imagine if they shot 10-20% higher?
17 Assists
6 Turnovers
15 Fouls
60 Rebounds (10 Off)
10 Steals
8 Blocks
26 Paint Points
40 Bench Points
13 Second Chance Points
5 Fast Break Points

KNICKS
80 Points
30-86 FG (34%)
6-29 3PT (20%)
14-28 FT (50%) - Geez. When you're cold, you're cold.
21 Assists
11 Turnovers
27 Fouls
45 Rebounds (5 Off)
5 Steals
6 Blocks
30 Paint Points
31 Bench Points
4 Second Chance Points
6 Fast Break Points

A tale of two games for the Knicks. They were efficient against the Celtics, but were completely shut down by the Bulls. As with the previous game, Knicks didn't force many turnovers. This surely has a lot to do with the elite PGs they've faced.

This game was barely competitive in the 2nd half, as the Bulls built a 13 point lead in the 3rd quarter and then went on a 17-1 run over the first 6 minutes of the 4th.

BOX SCORES

BULLS: Pts-Reb-Ast-Stl-Blk-TO-Fls-Mins (FG, 3PT, FT)
J.Noah: 9-17-3-0-4-0-2-30 (3-8 FG, 0-0 3PT, 3-5 FT)
T.Gibson: 9-10-1-1-0-0-3-26 (2-5 FG, 0-0 3PT, 5-6 FT)
L.Deng: 17-5-0-0-1-1-1-33 (7-17 FG, 0-1 3PT, 3-6 FT)
K.Bogans: 5-3-0-0-0-0-0-28 (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT, 2-4 FT)
D.Rose: 27-1-7-2-0-3-2-32 (10-17 FG, 0-0 3PT, 7-9 FT)
BENCH
K.Korver: 15-2-0-2-1-0-2-20 (7-17 FG, 1-5 3PT, 0-0 FT)
B.Scalabrine: 5-6-0-0-0-0-1-20 (1-3 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)
C.Watson: 13-0-5-2-0-0-1-18 (2-6 FG, 0-0 3PT, 9-12 FT)
R.Brewer: 5-6-0-1-0-2-0-15 (2-4 FG, 0-0 3PT, 1-2 FT)
O.Asik: 2-7-0-2-2-0-0-11 (1-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0-3 FT)
K.Thomas: 0-3-0-0-0-0-1-7 (0-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0-0 FT)
J.Johnson: 0-0-1-0-0-0-0-6 (0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT, 0-0 FT)

Rose did most of the heavy lifting for Chicago, as he's done IRL w/o Boozer. One tweak I forgot to make was boosting his 3pt tendency since he's taking that shot more frequently. Ditto for Luol Deng.

Kyle Korver took 17 shots in 20 minutes. A lot of that came in garbage time, but even still that is a bit too much. I had Korver's touch tendency at 50 entering the game and he might be due for a drop.

I have no idea what C.J. Watson's 12 FTA were about. Perhaps the Bulls' plays are too geared towards driving rather than spotting up?

Other than Korver/Watson, I am very pleased with these statistics.

KNICKS: Pts-Reb-Ast-Stl-Blk-TO-Fls-Mins (FG, 3PT, FT)
T.Mozgov: 8-13-1-0-1-0-2-24 (2-3 FG, 0-0 3PT, 4-6 FT)
A.Stoudemire: 23-10-0-1-0-1-6-28 (10-18 FG, 0-0 3PT, 3-6 FT)
D.Gallinari: 0-3-0-0-0-0-1-22 (0-6 FG, 0-2 3PT, 0-0 FT)
L.Fields: 12-4-1-1-0-1-3-32 (5-9 FG, 1-4 3PT, 1-4 FT)
R.Felton: 6-0-10-1-0-1-4-32 (1-8 FG, 0-3 3PT, 4-6 FT)
BENCH
W.Chandler: 18-4-0-0-1-1-1-33 (7-24 FG, 4-13 3PT, 0-2 FT)
T.Douglas: 3-0-6-0-0-5-3-22 (1-8 FG, 1-5 3PT, 0-0 FT)
R.Turiaf: 5-8-1-0-4-1-4-28 (2-2 FG, 0-0 3PT, 1-2 FT)
B.Walker: 5-3-1-2-0-0-2-17 (2-6 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-2 FT)
R.Mason: 0-0-1-0-0-0-1-8 (0-2 FG, 0-1 3PT, 0-0 FT)

Amare was having a nice game until he got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter. He picked up a 5th foul in the 4th, subbed out, and that's what spurred the 17-1 Bulls run. He subbed back in during it, and committed his 6th foul on the next play. No Amare essentially turns the Knicks into a poor-quality 3pt shooting team, as they won't be getting any open looks without an interior presence. In case you couldn't guess, Wilson Chandler was the primary culprit and took the majority of his shots in the 4th quarter with Amare out of the game. There were quite a few possessions where the Knicks would just give it to Chandler to jack up a three.

Felton and Douglas combined for 2-16 FG (1-8 3PT), while Rose and Watson flat out smoked them for 40 points on the other end. Douglas in particular had 5 turnovers in only 22 minutes. I'm not really complaining about the production, just pointing out how lopsided it was. Felton/Douglas still combined for 16 assists so it wasn't all bad.

As promised in the last recap, I adjusted Fields' tendencies to generate a more realistic shooting spread and it worked. 9 shots in 32 minutes, with 4 of them coming from deep, that's about as accurate as it gets.

Gallinari shot 0-6 and was notably nowhere to be found during the 4th quarter (when the Knicks seemingly would have been better off w/ him instead of Wilson Chandler jacking up all those threes (or at least with both on the court). This is due to the low minutes I've given Gallinari in the rotation, but more concerning is that this guy seems to play terribly in every CPU game.

GAMETRACK

BULLS
Rose: Six jumpers (4 via Isolation, 2 via double pick play), two layups via double pick play, one And-One isolation layup, one isolation dunk.
Deng: Four Off-Screen mid-range jumpers, one catch/shoot jumper, one post-up jumper, one isolation jumper.
Korver: Three Off-Screen mid-range jumpers, one catch/shoot mid-range jumper, one fadeaway three via his own steal, one fastbreak layup, one basket cut layup (perfect pass, not even cheesy)
Noah: Three dunks (two after offensive rebound, one of which was an And-One; one via cut after a double team).
Gibson: Putback dunk, catch/shoot jumper
Watson: Iso jumper, Iso layup (semi-break)
Brewer: Catch/Shoot, basket cut layup
Scalabrine: Spot-up 3pt
Bogans: Spot-up 3pt
Asik: And-One via offensive rebound

Overall I have few complaints about the Bulls results. Deng/Korver combined for 7 screen plays, which is really too much considering those are just the made baskets. It's ok for Korver, not so much for Deng. Deng last season got 26% of his offense from spot-ups, 14% from isolations, 9% off-screens, and 7% from post-ups. I wouldn't say his touch tendency needs adjusting, rather just a larger variety of plays instead of just screen plays.

KNICKS
Stoudemire: 6 Dunks (Four P&R w/ Felton, one of which was an alley-oop; One P&R w/ Mozgov, one fastbreak (assisted, cherry picked), one post-up, one catch/shoot, one fastbreak layup, one isolation jumper.
Chandler: Three 3pt via Play, Two post-ups, one fastbreak dunk (assisted)
Fields: Three spot-ups, one post-up, one fastbreak dunk (self)
Mozgov: Two mid-range spot-ups
Turiaf: Two And-One Layups (one via hand-off, one via offensive rebound)
Walker: Drive/Pull-Up jumper, one fastbreak dunk (self)
Felton: Driving runner
Douglas: Catch/Shoot 3pt

Amare still needs his dunking reduced. I said I'd reduce his ooping, and I did. It seems like he's catching the ball a little too easily, but that's not an uncommon problem and he does have better hands than most. Still, I'm happy with the amount of Pick & Rolling and general variety in his offensive game.

Chandler scored (and likely missed) all those threes off the same play, and it just occurred to me I need to change the Bench SF playbooks because Chandler isn't starting anymore. The plays are geared towards a 3pt shooter and could use a bit more variety. It would be easier if we could just assign plays to specific players.

Everyone else I'm happy with. Felton and Douglas were running plays, just getting swatted left and right by the Bulls stifling interior defense (I watched 1st and 4th quarters).

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I'm generally pleased with the overall results. Teams are getting to the point where they only need a few minor tweaks here and there. I will try to post a roster update by the end of the week.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Finally, some results to hang my hat on

2K revised their touch tendencies so I implemented them, made some tweaks, and ran a test to see how they'd hold up. The results, as usual, were far from perfect, but ultimately were very promising.

CELTICS (84 Overall) vs KNICKS (76 Overall)

GAME SETTINGS
Difficulty: All-Star
Quarters: 12 Minutes
Game Speed: Normal

SLIDER CHANGES
20 Dunk In Traffic success
15 Contact Shot success
55 Driving Contact Frequency
55 Inside Contact Frequency

KNICKS
115 Points
38-80 FG (47%)
10-30 3PT (33%)
29-33 FT (87%)
23 Assists
13 Turnovers
17 Fouls
52 Rebounds (7 Off)
3 Steals
3 Blocks
38 Paint Points
45 Bench Points
10 Second Chance Points
2 Fast Break Points (as usual, the game has no idea what constitutes a fast break)

CELTICS
111 Points
39-96 FG (40%)
10-25 3PT (40%)
23-29 FT (79%)
25 Assists
3 Turnovers
18 Fouls
43 Rebounds (8 Off)
11 Steals
18 Paint Points
11 Bench Points
10 Second Chance Points
2 Fast Break Points

I am pleased with the decreased points in the paint for both teams. Part of this was due to the teams going to the FT line more often when they get the ball inside, which is actually realistic. However, it is really annoying that the game ONLY calls shooting fouls, with the occasional loose ball foul. Never a reach, never a charge, just blocking/shooting fouls. However, I'm reluctant to adjust this because a decrease in FTA would lead to an increase in FGA. It's just something to note for the moment.

KNICKS BOX: Pts-Reb-Ast-Stl-Blk-TO-Fls-Mins (FG, 3PT, FT)
T.Mozgov: 0-6-0-0-0-0-1-16 (0-0 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0-0 FT)
A.Stoudemire: 35-13-3-0-1-2-3-37 (13-21 FG, 0-1 3PT, 9-9 FT)
D.Gallinari: 9-7-0-0-0-1-1-24 (3-11 FG, 2-6 3PT, 1-2 FT)
L.Fields: 10-6-2-1-0-0-3-33 (2-10 FG, 2-10 3PT, 4-4 FT)
R.Felton: 16-0-11-1-0-4-1-32 (5-10 FG, 0-1 3PT, 6-6 FT)
BENCH
W.Chandler: 28-7-0-0-1-0-3-35 (11-18 FG, 6-10 3PT, 0-0 FT)
Douglas: 7-1-4-1-0-3-0-20 (1-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 5-6 FT)
Turiaf: 6-10-0-0-1-2-2-25 (2-3 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2-4 FT)
Walker: 0-1-1-0-0-1-2-14 (0-3 FG, 0-1 3PT, 0-0 FT)
Mason: 4-1-2-0-0-0-1-9 (1-3 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT)

Final Knick Lineup: Felton, Douglas, Fields, Chandler, Stoudemire

Mozgov not involved at all. I noticed his close tendency is low so I'll boost that. In 16 minutes, he should have at least taken a shot, even if he's playing next to Amare.

Amare had 23 points in the first half (12 FGA, 7 FTA) in 1st half, but only 12 points in the second half (9 FGA, 2 FTA) because the Celtics started doubling him.

Fields took all his shots from deep. I noticed his Inside/Close tendency is low so hopefully a boost will balance his shooting spread. Half his shots IRL are threes, but 10 of 10 is a bit much.

Felton had a solid game. Just noticed his 3pt tend is only 21, and should probably be higher now that he's a Knick instead of a Bobcat. Relatively minor tweak.

Chandler caught fire in the 4th quarter and went ballistic. He only has a 69 3pt rating. That's the power of "fire". For those who weren't aware, this is exactly what Chandler has been doing through the first three games, ridiculous 3pt shooting not withstanding.

CELTICS BOX: Pts-Reb-Ast-Stl-Blk-TO-Fls-Mins (FG, 3PT, FT)
S.O'Neal: 7-8-0-3-0-0-2-24 (2-6 FG, 0-0 3PT, 3-3 FT)
K.Garnett: 26-12-1-3-0-0-3-35 (12-20 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2-5 FT)
P.Pierce: 26-1-3-2-0-1-1-33 (11-25 FG, 2-6 3PT, 2-2 FT)
R.Allen: 35-4-5-0-0-0-2-37 (9-20 FG, 7-14 3PT, 10-10 FT)
R.Rondo: 6-2-9-1-0-0-6-43 (2-8 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)
BENCH
G.Davis: 4-9-2-1-0-1-0-25 (1-4 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2-3 FT)
M.Daniels: 2-0-1-1-0-0-1-16 (0-4 FG, 0-0 3PT, 2-4 FT)
N.Robinson: 0-0-1-0-0-1-0-13 (0-4 FG, 0-2 3PT, 0-0 FT)
J.O'Neal: 2-6-3-0-0-0-3-15 (1-1 FG, 0-0 3PT, 0-0 FT)
V.Wafer: 3-1-0-0-0-0-0-6 (1-4 FG, 1-1 3PT, 0-0 FT)

Final Celtic Lineup: Robinson, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Davis

The big three did the majority of the Celtics damage. I'm not with it, because this team is too deep for that. KG/Pierce/Allen should not be combining for 65 FGA anymore, not with this many weapons. A higher Touch tendency for Shaq seems to be in order. Shaq, btw, had 3 steals, which is likewise not cool.

Rondo was not aggressive at all, but I have a feeling this has to do with the plays being run. He fouled out at the end due to intentional fouls, not because of overaggressive defense. Rondo hasn't been much of a scorer through the first 3 games, and has been piling up assists like nobodies business, but on this night he only had 9 in 43 minutes despite big nights for the big three.

GAMETRACK
I would have loved to post the GT data, however I accidentally hit re-match instead of Gametrack.

Off the top of my head, Amare had 4 dunks. Two were alley-oops, another from terrible P/R defense, and an uncontested standing dunk underneath. There was also a dunk that Shaq "blocked" except the ball clipped through his hand and Amare was rewarded with a foul call.

Pierce had something like 5 or 6 post ups from the mid-post. Getting those shots to Shaq would have been ideal.

Finally, 2K really needs to fix their defensive A.I. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON why players should be mixing up assignments coming up the floor AFTER A MADE BASKET. Every single time this happens it's an automatic basket, because the PGs can't stop the Cs in the post, and the Cs can't stop the PGs off the dribble.

I don't have an ETA for my next roster update yet, but it should be soon - probably when I finish "Re-TOUCHing" all the teams (about 40% done).