Tuesday, November 9, 2010

SRS Rankings [11-08-10]

I know it's still early in the NBA season, but after about 7 games for each team, the eastern conference looks like an absolute joke. I've ranked each team using SRS (Simple Rating System), which basically weighs point differential and opponent quality.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
13.80 Lakers
11.31 Nuggets
10.11 Hornets
5.97 Mavericks
4.84 Spurs
3.81 Rockets
3.69 Suns
2.28 Blazers
1.96 Warriors
-0.15 Jazz
-1.30 Grizzlies
-3.84 Clippers
-5.97 Kings
-6.12 Thunder
-15.15 Wolves

EASTERN CONFERENCE
12.38 Heat
7.26 Magic
4.89 Celtics
1.64 Hawks
0.80 Knicks
-1.34 Bulls
-2.07 Sixers
-2.89 Raptors
-3.86 Bucks
-5.08 Cavaliers
-5.19 Nets
-6.54 Pistons
-7.56 Pacers
-7.66 Bobcats
-11.09 Wizards

Only 5 teams in the east have a positive SRS rating, while there are 9 teams in the west with a positive rating. The Raptors are the 8th best east team with -2.89 SRS and there are 11 teams in the west that post a better rating than that. The Warriors are 9th in the west with a 1.96 rating, but would rank 4th in the east.

Based on SRS, the Lakers/Heat Finals we've been predicting all summer seems inevitable pending any serious injuries. And while it is early, it's worth noting that the Celtics were the dominant SRS team early last season, and look where they ended up.

What does this have to do with 2K rosters? Well, SRS is usually a bit more useful than the actual standings. For instance, the Rockets are 6th in the west with a 3.81 SRS rating despite a 1-5 record. They have had an EXTREMELY difficult schedule, and their losses have been close.

2 point road loss to Lakers (13.80)
4 point road loss to Warriors (1.96) (No Yao)
13 point home loss to Nuggets (11.31)
8 point home loss to Hornets (10.11)
3 point road loss to Spurs (4.84) (No Yao)
26 point home win to Wolves (-15.15)

The Rockets faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference and played them competitively. When they played the league's worst team, they smashed them. Their next game is against the Wizards (the 2nd worst team in the league), followed by the Pacers, so one would think they'd be set to build some momentum (injury to Aaron Brooks notwithstanding).

The Rockets are obviously a better team than the 1-6 Wolves, who are getting blown out in every game. Win-Loss record doesn't paint that picture. Aside from the 26 point drubbing by Houston, they've also been blown out by 32 by Miami and 42 by Orlando. Not all losses are created equally. SRS indicates Houston should be a playoff team so long as they maintain their current level of production, while Minnesota doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.


What does this have to do with 2K Ratings?

I'm still working on getting my roster back to where it was one month ago, but I still feel it is worth it to make comparisons between team ratings in my roster, and the current SRS rankings.

WEST
84.5 Jazz (85-84-81)
82.5 Lakers (89-76-83)
82.5 Thunder (88-77-82)
80.5 Spurs (83-78-81)
80.0 Nuggets (76-84-75)
78.0 Mavericks (81-75-75)
78.0 Grizzlies (73-83-76)
76.0 Blazers (79-73-76)
75.0 Suns (70-80-73)
74.5 Warriors (70-79-74)
72.0 Rockets (72-72-74)
72.0 Clippers (76-68-70)
71.0 Kings (70-72-72)
71.0 Hornets (67-75-70)
61.0 Wolves (61-61-66)

EAST (DEF-OFF-OVR)
87.0 Celtics (91-83-83)
85.5 Heat (90-81-83)
84.5 Magic (89-80-84)
83.5 Bucks (90-75-83)
81.5 Knicks (77-86-77)
79.0 Bulls (90-68-79)
79.0 Bobcats (87-71-77)
77.5 Hawks (80-75-74)
77.5 Sixers (79-76-75)
75.5 Wizards (75-76-71)
74.0 Cavaliers (82-66-73)
71.5 Pacers (72-71-68)
69.5 Pistons (72-67-68)
69.0 Nets (71-67-70)
65.0 Raptors (67-63-64)

OVERRATED TEAMS
THUNDER - The offense is 21st, which isn't anything new, but the defense has fallen off a cliff, all the way down to 23rd. Nenad Krstic has yet to block a shot through 8 games. As NBA 2K has surely told you by now, OKC lead the league in blocks last season, so that's a huge blow.

CELTICS - It might sound funny to say that about a 6-1 team, but they aren't playing like the league's best. Pierce, Allen, and Garnett have been playing sub-par thus far. While the O'Neal's haven't really pulled their weight. They are 3rd defensively, but only 17th offensively. The only reason they are 6-1 right now is the brilliance of Rondo and a fairly easy schedule. They barely squeaked by the Bucks and Bulls in OT games. Their next three games are on the road against the Mavericks, Heat, and Grizzlies, so that should sort itself out.

BOBCATS
Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace have not played well this season. Wallace's offensive boards, steals, and blocks are all majorly down from last season, and those areas are the reason why he was an all-star last season.

UNDERRATED TEAMS
LAKERS - The Lakers are the #1 offensive team with an incredible and surely unsustainable 118.4 ORTG. Odom has an unheard of .676 TS%, followed by Blake .642 TS%, Brown .637 TS%, and Fisher .618 TS%. Those numbers will obviously not sustain themselves, but they are impressive considering the team is currently without Andrew Bynum. It's worth noting the lack of Bynum has had a negative impact on the team's defense (only 10th this season), and they'll surely want him back once those hot hands start fizzling. Still, they clearly deserve a higher offensive rating than 13th.

HORNETS - They are easily the most underrated team in the entire league. Chris Paul has turned Jason Smith into the next Birdman. Okafor and West are playing out of their minds, not to mention Paul has reverted back to the 30 PER player he was in 2009. Okafor is actually living up to his contract, posting 22.8 PER, .734 TS%, 24.7 DRB%, and 6.1 BLK%, and only 7.3 TO%. Give Monty Williams coach of the year now if they keep playing like this.

RAPTORS - Obviously underrated, but I haven't re-implemented my ratings for them yet (they should be around Warriors territory with the changes).

--------------------------------------------

Those are the main changes that need to be made, and I'll start working on that in the next roster update.

61 comments:

Lunatic Wolf said...

Don't underestimate the Jazz. Right now they are only running a portion of their offense due to 5 new faces playing major minutes. Jefferson stated that there are still 30 plays that he doesn't know. Once they start getting the whole thing down, their offense ranking will climb back to its usual levels.

Not to mention they have a really nasty schedule to start the year.

Corox said...

Just an information Rashidi, Pape Sy from the Hawks played PG in France PRO A (championship)

One question, which rating will you deserve to Jonas Jerebko in your roster ? Thx you

Anonymous said...

Just wondering with your new update, did you edit all teams or only some?

attention deficit said...

Can you bring Lebron's mid range and three's down? He's been struggling badly with his outside shot. He's shooting 16.7% 10-15 feet according to hoopdata which is a huge drop from when he shot 32% from 10-15 ft last yr. His percentage also dropped 16-23 ft from when he shot 40% in that range at Cleveland but now dropped to 36%. His percentage at the rim is the only thing that really has increased. His rebounds even have dropped.

Anonymous said...

A great defense doesn't give up 84 points in a second half by the way.

Rashidi said...

Just an information Rashidi, Pape Sy from the Hawks played PG in France PRO

He won't in the NBA though.


One question, which rating will you deserve to Jonas Jerebko in your roster ? Thx you

Probably whatever I gave him last year, however that translates to the new scale. So, 70-72 range.

Rashidi said...

Can you bring Lebron's mid range and three's down? He's been struggling badly with his outside shot. He's shooting 16.7% 10-15 feet according to hoopdata which is a huge drop from when he shot 32% from 10-15 ft last yr. His percentage also dropped 16-23 ft from when he shot 40% in that range at Cleveland but now dropped to 36%. His percentage at the rim is the only thing that really has increased. His rebounds even have dropped.

I'm not really adjusting shot ratings from last year right now, unless the player has shown they've added the 3pt shot to their arsenal (like Derrick Rose or Luol Deng, for example).

Rashidi said...

A great defense doesn't give up 84 points in a second half by the way.

If you're talking about the Heat, they gave up 72.

They also held Utah to 32 in the 1st half, so they are clearly doing something right defensively.

Anonymous said...

They gave up 84. I was including the Overtime period.

Rashidi said...

1st Half = 1st & 2nd quarter
2nd Half = 3rd & 4th quarter
Overtime = Overtime

Lee Harrison said...

Hey Rashidi you upload roster is come out?

Anonymous said...

LOL RASHIDI. Chris Bosh was not the best PF in the league.

Rashidi said...

What Power Forward in the league would put up big numbers next to LeBron and Wade?

Eye roll complete.

Anonymous said...

2 1 rebound games. LRN 2 NBA RASHIDI. Admit it, for the first time in like a decade, that DEM STATS were wrong and Dirk should have been rated higher!

Anonymous said...

But seriously, Bosh has no post moves. He only has a face up game. At least Dirk has a post repertoire.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, do you understand that physical ratings exist and Dirk can't jump, run like Bosh ?

It's just à little part of the iceberg, Nowitzky is better in a team built for him, that's not the case for Bosh that's all !

attention deficit said...

"At least Dirk has a post repertoire."

Really?

Lunatic Wolf said...

Dirks game is complete face-up as well.

Anonymous said...

Sure Lunatic Wolf :D Except for the circa 20 posessions per game when he gets the ball in the high/low post...

Lunatic Wolf said...

Which he then proceeds to face up and drive or shoot a jumper.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uti8Kz4SYUU

Post Moves are hooks, up and unders, etc. Dirk does not do that.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rashidi,

looking forward to your roster. just got one question...are you going to add Sean Barkley's shoe/accessory templates to your roster? they are very accurate especially with the shoes...would be a great addition to your roster...

Anonymous said...

link is

http://www.operationsports.com/forums/nba-2k-rosters/453298-sean-barkleys-shoe-accessory-templates-2-0-a.html

Anonymous said...

I'm not starting my association until you lower Chris Bosh's rating or he stops playing like RuPaul. Which do you think will happen first?

Anonymous said...

Lol whatever Rashidi. Giving up 72 points in 2 quarters is still incredibly bad defense.

Rashidi said...

Leaving Paul Millsap open for three pointers is bad defense?

Anonymous said...

Paul Millsap was 3-3 for 9 points from deep. Take that away and it's still 61 points. Don't go making excuses now.

Anonymous said...

LOL HATERS

Dirk has a patented up and under move that fakes out everyone. Watch more Dallas games or LRN 2 NBA.

Anonymous said...

I know Jason Collins sucks, but i think his 51 rating should be a tad higher, maybe an increase in midrange & rebounding, please look into it sir

Anonymous said...

So was your new roster only half done or did you edit all 30 teams?

John Wall said...

Hi Rashidi,
today i recorded my 1st pro triple double 6 games in.

Magic done it in 5 but still now can I get some love?

Rashidi said...

Paul Millsap was 3-3 for 9 points from deep. Take that away and it's still 61 points. Don't go making excuses now.

That's 30 points per quarter. Not good, but far from horrible, particularly when they held them to 32 over the first two quarters.

Rashidi said...

I know Jason Collins sucks, but i think his 51 rating should be a tad higher, maybe an increase in midrange & rebounding, please look into it sir

I've edited Collins' mid-range game (though to be honest, this is more off NJ memories than any recent production). However, his rebounding is absolute crap, and always has been. He will always have a low 2K rating. Good locker room guy, but that's not going to help his rating any.

Anonymous said...

Still, Millsap didn't hit those threes in the third quarter (at least I don't remember it) when the Jazz scored 42 points. THAT is horrible. Bosh is an overrated defender.

Rashidi said...

They scored 42 in the 4th quarter. You're re-writing history.

Rashidi said...

From the sound of it, it seems like you don't even know what happened. Millsap went T-Mac.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCiHOpNJXnc

Heat defense is not to blame for that.

Anonymous said...

You're right, I did misread the box score. But to say I don't know what happened is a little ridiculous.

I find it funny how you're defending the Heat's meltdown by basically saying he just got hot. A day after you claim that the Jazz are overrated, they blow up in the 2nd half (Oh, plus OT. Don't want to bring on the wrath of Rashidi) but now it's luck that the offense showed up.

The Jazz still would have lost that game if Bosh knew how to box out and not let Millsap get the offensive put back to tie it at the buzzer.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, not Bosh. Haslem.

Anonymous said...

Mike Dunlevy is underrated. He should be higher than 65.

Rashidi said...

Millsap got the putback because he's an animal on the glass, and it was obviously his night.

Utah obviously remembered how to execute their offense. My primary target was Raja Bell, and that hasn't changed. Bell had 3 points last night on 1-6 FG, and 8 points tonight on 4-5 FG, while playing so-so defense.

Lost in all of this is that it took MULTIPLE MIRACLES for the Heat to lose this game. The way the Heat are producing, they will win more often than not.

Anonymous said...

The Heat are 1-3 against playoff teams (I'll just go ahead and count NO as a playoff team with a healthy CP3) Their other four games have been against the two worst teams (if you still want to count NJ as extremely awful, but whatever) in the league, and an up-and-coming one in Philly.

I think it's a little early to be looking at their 'production' and making assumptions just yet.

The Heat will win lots of games, but don't give me the 'production' crap until they actually prove something.

Rashidi said...

Fun fact: The Heat now lead the league in SRS

They are 6th in ORTG and 2nd in DRTG

Again, W/L record DOES NOT tell the whole story.

I could care less what players are on the team. The fact is they barely lost to teams like the Hornets (3rd), Celtics (6th), and Jazz (15th). They blew out the Magic (4th) by 26. (Keep pretending that one never happened though).

EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEIR WINS HAS BEEN BY DOUBLE DIGITS. It doesn't matter if they came against lesser teams. Miami beat the Wolves by 32, yet the Lakers were only able to beat them by 5 (which is why they are no longer the #1 SRS team).

The wins and losses will balance out so long as they maintain their current level of production. The funny thing is everyone has been RIPPING the Heat and think they should be performing BETTER.

Rashidi said...

Food for thought: Jordan's Bulls lead the league in SRS 5 of the 6 years they won the championship.

I simply fail to see how a team that is a game out of 1st in the conference (with a home game against the 1st place team tomorrow night) is a train wreck because *gasp* they actually lost a game.

Funny you say the Heat beat up on weak teams when the Celtics have had just as easy a schedule but have barely beaten mediocre teams like the Knicks, Bulls, and Bucks (as opposed to blowing them out). The Celtics lost to the LeBron-less Cavs but you don't see anyone freaking out about that, do you?

bondish770 said...

Two other important statistics: The Jordan Bulls led the Eastern Conference in wins 5 out of 6 times they won championships, and led the Eastern Conference in # of Michael Jordans 6 out of 6 times they won championships.

Either eight games is too small of a sample to draw inference or it isn't. You can't have it both ways. If having the highest SRS after eight games means definitively the Heat are the best team in the NBA, Chris Bosh's 2.8/16.6 ORB%/DRB% are also mean definitively that he is as soft as a marshmellow, and his rebounding ratings need to be halved

onyx said...

could u please stop this ridicoules ratings discussion about the heat?

no one knows what the heck is wrong with bosh, last season 20 10 guy, this season mental breakdown or something. it's way to early to make major ratings changes (major not minor).

i love how no one never mentions i.e. kobe as he had streaks that last for weeks where he was shooting 30% from the field. should i complain about his midrange rating needing a drop about 20% ?

not to mention he is completly overrated as he never came close to success without shaq or gasol.
lakers weren't even top4 in the west before the gasol trade.
(nevertheless people demanding james to win a ring with a crappy cavs team that never shown any sign of clutch factor)

with this kind of approach you could do the roster all over again every 2 weeks with every third player in the nba cuz he has a hot or cold streak.
frist week one guy has a 70 midrange rating, 2nd week he gets 50 rating and 3 weeks later 90. have fun playing, coming back here and crying if this is done to your team.

as you might have recognized i'm a james fan and i don't care if heats ratings get dropped if its legitimate. not even 2 weeks into the new season and you are judging players ratings as if they had shown those performences throughout 40games or 3 months.

i could also demand james havin a pass rating of 97 because he had 3 games in a row with double digit assists and durant needs a jumper rating not higher of 70 cuz he clearly sucks with his fg% (which is atm 39.4% !)..... (sarcasm)

Lunatic Wolf said...

You really can't start changing ratings a lot for about 12 more games. After that, it becomes more concrete.

Anonymous said...

Haha, good to see you're assuming I'm dismissing/ignoring their shutdown of Orlando. You're just going bonkers over the Heat because it's THE thing for stats geeks.

You're overrating them and dismissing their flaws as just some player getting hot and it 'being their night.'

I'm not talking about the Celtics or the Lakers. I could care less what their record (or how they're not blowing out bad teams) is at this point because they aren't being overrated as the Heat are.

Rashidi said...

If having the highest SRS after eight games means definitively the Heat are the best team in the NBA, Chris Bosh's 2.8/16.6 ORB%/DRB% are also mean definitively that he is as soft as a marshmellow, and his rebounding ratings need to be halved

It doesn't mean "definitively", as I have repeatedly said the wins will come as long as they maintain their level of production.

The Celtics were dominating SRS for the first two months of last season. Then the injuries and age started to overtake take them, started putting lower quality lineups out there, and production suffered. Then they got healthy, and dominated the playoffs.

The Heat are not an old team like the Celtics, do not have any significant injury risks on the team, and will be getting back a key piece in January. Not to mention they are still figuring each other out. There are PLENTY of signs that say they will maintain (if not improve).

Rashidi said...

And Bosh's rebounding will go up. I have lowered it in my next update, but I am certainly not hitting the panic button.

Rashidi said...

Haha, good to see you're assuming I'm dismissing/ignoring their shutdown of Orlando. You're just going bonkers over the Heat because it's THE thing for stats geeks.

Whereas you're dismissing the Heat because Paul Millsap went T-Mac? But more on this in a moment.



You're overrating them and dismissing their flaws as just some player getting hot and it 'being their night.

Whereas you are dismissing their strengths - their defense has been superb, and they still have 2 superstars and 1 all-star on the court. Their biggest "flaw" is they seem to be playing 3-on-5 at times. Arroyo doesn't fit next to Wade/LeBron. LeBron is basically running the point, so it's time to start either House or Jones. I suspect that becomes easier once Mike Miller returns, so they don't lose any scoring punch off the bench.

I'm not talking about the Celtics or the Lakers. I could care less what their record (or how they're not blowing out bad teams) is at this point because they aren't being overrated as the Heat are.

Oh please. The Heat are underrated by plenty of people at this point. Everyone is jumping on the hatewagon and declaring them a joke because they lost 3 games.

Rashidi said...

After last night's Magic loss, Miami is the #1 DRTG team, currently allowing 97.1 points per 100 possessions.

#1 ranked team by season
2010: Bobcats (102.8)
2009: Magic (101.9)
2008: Celtics (98.9)
2007: Bulls (99.7)
2006: Spurs (99.6)
2005: Spurs (98.8)

Bobcats and Bulls didn't have the offenses to match their defense. Magic did, and they made the NBA Finals. Celtics and Spurs did, were even better defensively, and won the championship.

2008 Celtics
9.31 SRS (1st)
110.2 ORTG (10th)
98.9 DRTG (1st)

2005 Spurs
7.83 SRS (1st)
107.5 ORTG (8th)
98.8 DRTG (1st)

2010 Heat
11.47 SRS (1st)
109.2 ORTG (6th)
97.1 DRTG (1st)

If these are the results they're going to generate when they're playing "poorly", what do you think is going to happen when they get it together?

Anonymous said...

man im getting tired of 2K

if the game isn't sim out of the box it isnt sim at all.

rashidi i really hope your roster makes it to the pc other wise videogame bball is dead to me.

downloading rosters for pc but all the effort by the 2,3 guys that care is just not enough even though they spent lots of time on them. then i spend the same time testing the difficulties and bunch of slider settings to get pissed off 2 days later.

i really cant understand all that hype about this franchise. does no one see the difference between real nba and nba2k ?

Anonymous said...

I'm not dismissing the Heat. I'm only saying that their defense is overrated (which it is) and their offense is explosive. No kidding, and everyone knows that.

Holding a shitty team in NJ to below 90 points and an awful Minnesota team below 100 is not a great feat. Give me a break.

Rashidi said...

Holding a shitty team in NJ to below 90 points and an awful Minnesota team below 100 is not a great feat. Give me a break.

ORTG vs Heat
Celtics: 99.5
Sixers: 95.1
Magic: 79.7
Nets: 91.0
Wolves: 96.8
Hornets: 107.6
Nets: 96.9
Jazz: 114.4

Give me a break.

Anonymous said...

Huh, 1-4 vs. playoff teams. A continuing trend? How's that SRS for the Heat and ORTG for the Celtics against the Heat looking now?

O-ver-rated. -clap- -clap- -clapclapclap-

LOL RASHIDI said...

Heat loss AGAIN

Lunatic Wolf said...

If it really bothers you that much, just drop the heats ratings to 55, and boost Kobe to 99 in every stat.

Anonymous said...

Heat hater does not equal Kobe fan.

Anonymous said...

Then do whatever makes you happy with your own roster. I doubt anyone else will care.

ghettobyrd said...

sorry but this is to early to be posting seeing that most teams havent had there full squad so maybe you should hold off until say january febuary for instance if boozer was playing the bulls numbers would be up

Rashidi said...

Huh, 1-4 vs. playoff teams. A continuing trend? How's that SRS for the Heat and ORTG for the Celtics against the Heat looking now?

The Heat played terrible and they lost by a whopping 5 points to the #4 ranked SRS team.

SRS
11.18 Hornets
10.31 Heat
7.91 Lakers
7.10 Celtics
5.95 Nuggets

Their 4 losses have come by a combined 18 points. Their 5 wins have come by a combined 103 points.

After seeing Dwyane Wade spot up for threes repeatedly, I'm convinced Erik Spoelstra is not the right coach for this team. If you have the two best offensive players in the NBA, but can't figure out how to get more than one of them involved at a time, you don't deserve your job. It's not like Scottie Pippen was a lights out shooter by any stretch.

Rashidi said...

sorry but this is to early to be posting seeing that most teams havent had there full squad so maybe you should hold off until say january febuary for instance if boozer was playing the bulls numbers would be up


Yes, obviously, which is WHY it's worth posting now, to see how much they have missed him.