Monday, October 3, 2011

NBA 2K12 Small Forward Ratings + Changes





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SMALL FORWARD RATINGS


TOP 1-10
98 - LeBron James
92 - Kevin Durant
91 - Carmelo Anthony
86 - Rudy Gay
83 - Gerald Wallace
82 - Paul Pierce
81 - Danny Granger
81 - Caron Butler
80 - Grant Hill
80 - Wilson Chandler

Carmelo Anthony is perhaps the league's most overrated superstar, and his 2K rating is indicitive of that.  His shot selection is awful and his defense even worse.   Allegedly one of the league's clutchest offensive players, there are plenty of forced turnovers he commits by trying to play hero ball.  The Knicks were a sub .500 team after trading for Melo, and were notably swept in the playoffs, with Melo only showing up for one of the games.  Melo simply does not hold a candle to Kevin Durant, who is already a 2x scoring champ and 2x All-NBA First teamer at the young age of 22.  The scary thing is Durant still has PLENTY of time to improve, whereas Melo at 26, doesn't stand to get much better (which is not a good prospect for the NY Knick defense).

Rudy Gay joins Andre Iguodala as another super athlete with overrated skills that has never made an all-star team.  Gay missed half of the season and the Grizzlies didn't even skip a beat, beating a 1st seed Spurs team and taking the Thunder to 7 games.  Does that sound like a team who was missing an 86 rated player?

Caron Butler missed 53 regular season games and the entire playoffs, but still went up in rating.  Butler's shooting efficiency fell off a cliff in 2010 and stayed that way in 2010 so it will be interesting to see where this boost came from.

Wilson Chandler is the top rated Nugget and he just signed in China for a mere 3 million.  I think that says it all about that rating's legitimacy.

TOP 11-20
78 - Shawn Marion
78 - Michael Beasley
77 - Luol Deng
77 - Shane Battier
77 - Tayshaun Prince
74 - Thaddeus Young
74 - Corey Maggette
74 - Andrei Kirilenko
74 - Hedo Turkoglu
74 - Rashard Lewis

Shane Battier is a bit high considering his defense has slipped a little bit with age, and thinking of Turkoglu as a top 20 SF is a bit laughable, but overall no major complaints.

TOP 21-30
74 - Nicolas Batum
74 - Paul George
74 - Dorell Wright
72 - Richard Jefferson
72 - Trevor Ariza
72 - Terrence Williams
72 - Jared Dudley
72 - Mickael Pietrus
71 - Ron Artest
71 - Matt Barnes

Here is where the **** hits the fan.  Ron Artest is not a good offensive player, but he is easily the best defensive SF in the league (right up there with 1st teamer LeBron).  It's tough to imagine a world where he is worse than Dorell Wright who likewise stands in a corner on offense and isn't nearly the defender Artest is.

Terrence Williams is rated equally to Richard Jefferson and Trevor Ariza.  I don't need to elaborate here.

Mickael Pietrus could not crack the rotation in Orlando and Phoenix, but we're expected to believe he is a top 30 SF.

TOP 31-40
71 - Quentin Richardson
70 - Joey Graham
70 - Josh Childress
70 - Martell Webster
70 - Maurice Evans
69 - Josh Howard
69 - Chase Budinger
69 - Damion James
69 - Al-Farouq Aminu
69 - Chris Douglas-Roberts

The insanity continues.   CDR barely got off the bench after Carlos Delfino came back yet is the top rated SF on the team.  CDR signed internationally without an out-clause, so at least we won't have to live with the rating incompetence for long.

Joey Graham likewise was a 3rd string on the Cavs and is the highest rated SF on the team.  Few teams in the league would take him over Jamario Moon.  Aminu was brutal as a rookie and likewise did not outplay Moon.

TOP 41-50
69 - Francisco Garcia
68 - Sam Young
68 - C.J. Miles
67 - Danilo Gallinari
67 - Andres Nocioni
67 - Alonzo Gee
67 - Jamario Moon
67 - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
67 - James Posey
67 - James Anderson

That's right folks.  Danilo Gallinari isn't a top 40 SF.  In fact, he rates 13 points worse than his backup, Wilson Chandler, and 24 points worse than the guy who replaced him in NY.  In case you are wondering, 23 points separate Steve Nash and Jannero Pargo.  Talk to Knick and Nugget fans about that and see what they tell you.  Gallinari is rated equally to Nocioni which really says it all.  Hell, he isn't rated any better than the worst starters at the position (Gee and Prince MAM), or guys who couldn't even get off their team's benches (Posey and Anderson).

TOP 51-60
67 - Sonny Weems
66 - Travis Outlaw
66 - Al Thornton
65 - Carlos Delfino
65 - Marvin Williams
65 - Dominic McGuire
65 - Cartier Martin
65 - Gary Forbes
65 - Derrick Brown
64 - Renaldo Balkman

Carlos Delfino being rated this low is an absolute joke if you've watched him as a member of the Bucks.  Marvin Williams' rating is likewise just as bad although you won't find many people jumping up to defend him.  Both players are easily far superior to D-League fodder like Dominic McGuire and Cartier Martin.

TOP 61-70
64 - Earl Clark
64 - Reggie Williams
63 - Gordon Hayward
63 - Luke Walton
63 - Devin Ebanks
63 - Ime Udoka
62 - Ryan Gomes
62 - Daniel Green
62 - Linas Kleiza
62 - James Johnson

Gordon Hayward showed at the end of the season that at the very least he is a much better player than a hobbled Luke Walton and a 2nd round Laker rookie with no BBall IQ.

Ryan Gomes started most of the year for the Clippers.  Ime Udoka spent most of the year outside of the league.  Facts like these are lost on 2K Sports.  The same applies for Linas Kleiza and James Johnson as it pertains to Daniel Green for that matter.

TOP 71-80
61 - Julian Wright
61 - Damien Wilkins
61 - Shawne Williams
61 - Mike Harris
61 - Omri Casspi
60 - Christian Eyenga
60 - Dante Cunningham
60 - Donte Greene
59 - Austin Daye
59 - Peja Stojakovic

Austin Daye and Peja Stojakovic are worse than Donte Greene, Shawne Williams, Christian Eyenga, and don't even register as top 75 as the position.  2K Sports: If it's in the game, don't look at us man.

TOP 81-95
59 - Luke Babbitt
59 - Bobby Simmons
58 - James Jones
58 - Rasual Butler
58 - Lazar Hayward
58 - DeMarre Carroll
58 - Rodney Carney
58 - Quincy Pondexter
57 - Patrick Ewing Jr.
57 - Stephen Graham
57 - Jawad Williams
56 - DaJuan Summers
55 - Sasha Pavlovic
55 - Ronald Dupree
53 - Jason Kapono

Luke Babbitt = Bobby Simmons = Austin Daye = Peja Stojakovic


Babbitt & Simmons > James Jones

Logical equations you won't find in any math textbook.  BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT LOGICAL.
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RATING CHANGES


LeBron James
98 Overall (+2)
97 Overall 2K11 (+1)
97 Inside (+2)
83 Close (+6)
86 Mid (+5)
79 3pt (+5)
76 FT (-1)

LeBron quietly has become one of the league's top mid-range shooters.  He shot 45% which was up from 40% the two previous years.  While he has surely improved his jumper since entering the league, some of this probably had to do with Wade and Bosh playing on his team.  LeBron couldn't really be triple teamed like he was in Cleveland.... although this did NOT help Wade's shooting numbers.  It is probably a little of both, and we'll find out this season whether it was a fluke or not.  One thing that IS clear however is that LeBron's shot ratings were underrated for much of last season.

Kevin Durant
92 Overall (-1)
94 Overall 2K11 (+1)
95 Inside (+2)
86 Close (+1)
85 Mid (-1)
81 3pt (+5)
88 FT (0)

Durant only hit 40% of his mid-range shots, so this causes a large discrepancy in the LeBron/Kobe debate.  LeBron is 5% better but only 1 rating point better.  Kobe was only 2% worse and 7 points worse.  All three players were among the leaders in mid-range attempts, so something is surely amiss with these ratings here.

Carmelo Anthony
91 Overall (-1)
93 Overall 2K11 (+1)
87 Inside (-3)
82 Close (+5)
90 Mid (+7)
84 3pt (+5)
84 FT (0)

Well, it's honestly a little baffling how Melo got a reputation boost but Kobe did not.  Melo shot 43% from mid-range as a Nugget and only 40% as a Knick.  Melo only shot 40% in 2010 and 39% in 2009.  He is clearly overrated when looking at where everyone else has fallen on the scale.  Melo's Close rating is also a bit high for someone who only shot 26% (32% as Nugget) from 3-9 feet and 37% (38% as Nugget) from 10-15 feet.

Rudy Gay
86 Overall (-1)
87 Overall 2K11 (0)
86 Inside (+7)
85 Close (-5)
79 Mid (-3)
86 3pt (+4)
81 FT (+3)

Back to some normalcy.  Gay shot 39% from mid-range and his 79 mid-range falls right in line with Kobe's.  2K clearly has a scale in there somewhere but their implementation is spotty at best.

Gerald Wallace
83 Overall (-1)
85 Overall 2K11 (+2)
85 Inside (-3)
72 Close (+22)
70 Mid (+1)
79 3pt (+2)
75 FT (+1)

Crash shot 40% from mid-range as a Blazer (1.9 attempts) and 37% as a Bobcat (3.6 attempts).  Overall he was 81-215 (37.8%).  It's good that 2K took sample size and attempts into account... since otherwise people would be freaking out about Kobe and Gerald Wallace being rated equally in mid-range.  Unfortunately, this does little to explain Crash's Close rating - he was 23-76 (30%) from 3-9 feet and a mere 3-13 (23%) from 10-15 feet.  Very difficult to see the rationale behind a 22 point increase in that category.

Paul Pierce
82 Overall (-1)
84 Overall 2K11 (+1)
93 Inside (+6)
84 Close (+5)
80 Mid (-4)
84 3pt (+5)
86 FT (0)

Pierce's ratings are pretty standard.  He shot 42% from mid-range but on only 2.8 attempts.

Danny Granger
81 Overall (-1)
81 Overall 2K11 (-1)
83 Inside (-2)
71 Close (-7)??? (Rating indiscernible in video, I'll find out in 24 hours)
75 Mid (-4)
86 3pt (+6)
85 FT (+1)

Granger shot only 35% from mid-range but did so on 4.3 attempts, and there isn't much to say about him right now since I was unable to get a good visual on his close rating.

Caron Butler
81 Overall (0)
83 Overall 2K11 (+2)
77 Inside (-1)
78 Close (+5)
88 Mid (+9)
75 3pt (+11)
77 FT (-8)

Butler's 3pt rating skyrocketed which is partially due to the 3pt scale boost, but also because Butler shot a high percentage in his 29 games played.   He shot 45% from mid-range in 2011, but perhaps more importantly, also shot 45% in 483 attempts in 2010.  Of course, Butler's rating (88) doesn't exactly match up with LeBron's rating (85) and body of work (45% on 424 attempts).

Grant Hill
80 Overall (-2)
81 Overall 2K11 (-1)
90 Inside (-3)
83 Close (-4)
72 Mid (-12)
84 3pt (+5)
83 FT (+1)

It will be very interesting to see how these ratings play out in the game as Hill's 3pt rating has drawn a lot of concern.  Hill shot 40% from deep this season and 44% last season, but did so in a limited sample size.  Hill mainly takes only open set shots which limits his total attempts.  The concern is whether he will be dropping multple threes per game with an 84 rating.  Hill averaged a career high 0.6 threes per game this past season.

Wilson Chandler
80 Overall (0)
81 Overall 2K11 (+1)
89 Inside (+7)
71 Close (-5)
75 Mid (0)
82 3pt (+4)
81 FT (+1)

China man Wilson Chandler shot 40% from mid-range on 3.7 attempts (37% on 2.6 attempts as a Knick).

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Honestlly there wasn't anything discovered about the new shot ratings that we didn't already figure out from the list of SG rating changes.  As with the PGs and SGs, overall ratings didn't change all that drastically with this new formula, and if anything the SFs were the least affected by it.

7 comments:

Mazzo said...

An interesting read as always Rashidi but ... Don't you think analyzing the shot ratings in this way is a bit simplistic, I mean there are other factors that will come into play to determine the final shot % for these players. Height is important since it creates mismatches and leads to more succesfull attempts, then there is shot in traffic and shot off dribble to just mention a few.
What do you think?

Rashidi said...

SOD and SIT are shot modifiers. A guy like Jason Kapono or Kyle Korver with 90 Mid/3pt and 50 SOD/SIT isn't going to be hitting the same shots as a Kobe (not to mention their considerable gaps in ball handling, speed, etc).

The rating itself can and should be done off base percentages and scales because of this. The better a player is at creating his shot, the more a defense is going to pay attention to him anyway, which ultimately leads to a balances.

I don't know how out the shot ratings will play out in 2K12 gameplay, as like everyone else, I'll find out in about 18 hours.

JK said...

Rashidi, you should get a Synergy subscription so you can parse out the percentages for spot up, hand in face, 1 dribble, etc. opportunities. would be quite interesting.

ffaacc03 said...

From someone who has the game ...

There are 4 categories this year; Attributes, Abilities, Tendencies, and Hotspots

Attributes: (work the same as last year, let me know if you need any specifics)
Shot inside, shot close, shot med, shot 3pt, FT, Layup, Dunk, Stand dunk, Shoot in traffic, Off-hand ball handle, ball security, pass, block, steal, hands, on-ball defense, offense rebound, defense rebound, post defense, offense awareness, defense awareness, offense clutch, defense clutch, consistency, stamina, durability, hustle, speed, quickness, strength, vertical, potential, emotion

Abilities: New section. The removed post offense, low post shot, ball handle, and shoot of dribble for the attribute section and integrated them here. The way these work is there are certain moves and you rate them either poor, average, good, or great. Here are the moves below.

Shooting - fade away, dribble pull up, spin jumper, step back jumper, runner (no leaner this year)
Layups/dunk - Hopstep, spin, eurostep
Dribble - sizeup, hesi, cross, stepback, in-out, spin, behinh back,
Post Moves- fadeaway, hopshot, shimmy, hook, dropstep, drive, spin

Tendencies: Same as last year. Each ability above has a tendency

ffaacc03 said...

Also, it seems that the valor you put on some of the ratings and on the abilities, restrict the available packs ... i.e. the dunk/layups packs, etc ...

Rashidi said...

Already have one, though it should have expired already. The good people of Synergy are probably just being sympathetic to us lockout peeps.

ffaacc03 said...

DaCzar has just made a post warning of what I just posted, about editing ... really important to see.