Wednesday, November 21, 2012

NBA 2K13 Roster Analysis 11/17/12

2K Sports finally updated ratings of players in their NBA 2K13 roster on 11/17.  Here is a quick review of how many of those changes made sense, and how many didn't.

Brandon Jennings
82 Overall (+2)
90 Layup (+9)
76 SOD (+3)
85 Pass (+3)
83 Steal (+7)
87 OffAwr (+3)
71 DefAwr (+4)
70 Consistency (+5)

Jennings is posting career highs in assists, and has doubled his steals rate thus far.  He looks poised to make his first all-star team, as the Bucks are the surprise of the Eastern Conference right now at 6-2.

Kyrie Irving
85 Overall (+2)
94 Inside (+3)
83 Close (+2)
87 3pt (+1)
95 Layup (+9)
94 Handle (+4)
92 OHD (+4)
88 Security (+4)
89 OffAwr (+5)
85 Consistency (+5)

Irving is shooting 63.1% from Inside this year, up from 61.4% last year. While an improvement, it's not deserving of a 90+ rating.
Irving is shooting only 35.8% from Close this year.  He shot 37.2% last year, so his improvement is unwarranted.
Improvements to Ball Handling and Offensive Awareness were long overdue.

It would have been nice his Potential (89) go up, as Irving is playing at such a high level at only 20 years old. Only Chris Paul was this good this young, which obviously bodes well for Irving.  It also would have been nice to see 2K lower his defensive ratings a bit, since this is a clear weakness for Irving (and one that separates him from CP3).

I have been talking about Irving's defensive weakness for the last 8 months on Twitter. Here's how opposing PGs have fared against him thus far.

A.J. Price: 7 points, 6 assists
Nate Robinson: 16 points, 12 assists (27 minutes)
Brandon Jennings: 13 points, 13 assists
Chris Paul: 17 points, 9 assists
Stephen Curry: 21 points, 6 assists
Goran Dragic: 26 points, 4 assists
Russell Westbrook: 27 points, 10 assists
Deron Williams: 26 points, 10 assists
Darren Collison: 14 points, 8 assists
Jrue Holiday: 14 points, 9 assists

Opposing PGs are simply having their way with Irving right now, as they did last year.  78 On-Ball Defense, 48 Block, and 66 Defensive Awareness seem like a bit much.

Unfortunately, Irving will be out the next month with a finger injury, which pretty much turns the Cavs into the Wizards 2.0.  Jeremy Pargo will take over starting duties and battle A.J. Price for the title of worst backup ever thrust into a starting role.

Anderson Varejao
76 Overall (+3)
68 Steal (+6)
95 OffReb (+1)
84 DefReb (+4)
85 OBD (+15)
56 OffAwr (+19)
75 Consistency (+5)
99 Hustle (+3)

Varejao's rebounding deserved to go up, but it should be even higher than where it is now based on last season's production.  The increase to his Offensive Awareness has been LONG overdue; the rating has been that low for YEARS, and we have always known Varejao to be at least competent offensively.

DeAndre Jordan
74 Overall (+2)
92 Block (-3)
62 Hands (+6)
93 OffReb (+4)
60 OffAwr (+4)
55 Consistency (+5)

I don't understand why Jordan's block rating went down since he's posting a career high 7.5 BLK%.  The rest of his adjustments are very run of the mill.  2K adjusted Offensive Awareness and Consistency for just about every player they bothered to edit.

Lamar Odom
69 Overall (-2)
68 3pt (-6)
71 Fade (-4)
70 Hook (-5)
73 OffPost (-2)
65 OffAwr (-3)
61 DefAwr (-3)
25 Consistency (-10)
63 Hustle (-8)
77 Durability (-8)

Odom has shown that last season's nightmare was no fluke, posting an unfathomably awful 1.2 PER through 10 games.  Things can't get much worse for the 2011 sixth man of the year (career high 19.4 PER just 18 months ago), but there's no guarantee that they'll get better either.

Ronnie Brewer
72 Overall (-1)
70 Med (-7)

Brewer only shot 32% from mid-range, so his adjustment is justified (and also explains why his shot stopped falling for me online).  However, it is the epitome of laziness to adjust only one rating.  2K obviously does not realize Brewer is having a far better year than last season and has improved his 3pt touch to servicable.  He is averaging one make per game and is well on-pace to eclipse last season's 19 makes in 66 games (not to mention his previous season high of 22).

Brewer has also been crashing the boards while playing SF and deserves much more than 37 Defensive Rebound rating.  While the Knicks are currently 8-1 without Amare Stoudemire, they certainly don't play like it in game.  Getting Brewer right would help.

J.J. Redick
72 Overall (+2)
62 Pass (+10)
68 OBD (+3)
79 OffAwr (+3)
65 Consistency (+5)

Redick has raised his playmaking exponentially this season, in part due to the absence of Hedo Turkoglu and a stretch without starting PG Jameer Nelson.  Boasting 28.0 AST% (2nd on team behind Nelson's 31.0%), Redick has continued to grow as a player since entering the league as a one-dimensional sharpshooter.  Off-hand, I cannot think of another spot-up shooter who worked this hard at improving all the other facets of his game.

O.J. Mayo
80 Overall (+2)
85 3pt (+3)
80 FT (+3)
74 SOD (+2)
50 Pass (+4)
82 Hands (+2)
82 OffAwr (+4)
50 Consistency (+5)
95 Stamina (+4)

Mayo is shooting 59% from deep with a league leading 36 threes made in 11 games, so a 3 point boost was the least he deserved.

Joe Johnson
83 Overall (-2)
80 Close (-5)
82 Med (-3)
81 OffAwr (-3)
75 DefAwr (-2)

Johnson shot 46% from Close last season (139-302), which deserves higher than the 85 rating he had at default.  That makes a drop to an 80 absurd, as it's much too early to say Johnson won't shoot higher than the 36% he is shooting right now in a small sample (13-36).

Kenneth Faried
80 Overall (+3)
54 FT (-6)
74 OBD (+3)
99 OffReb (+3)
63 OffAwr (+10)
83 DefAwr (+6)
65 Consistency (+25)
94 Durability (+4)

Most of these changes could have been made last season, but Faried really cemented his 99 OffReb rating with his current production.  He is leading the NBA with 20.6 Offensive Rebound percentage, which is Dennis Rodman territory.  Rodman eclipsed the 20% mark only once (20.8 in 1995) and finished his career at 17.2, so Faried (17.5 career) is certainly in special territory right now as an offensive rebounder.

Career ORB% (Top 10 + Faried)
17.5 Kenneth Faried (through 57 games)
17.2 Dennis Rodman
16.4 Moses Malone
15.8 Larry Smith
15.2 Jeff Foster
15.2 Chris Dudley
13.4 Dale Davis
13.2 Paul Silas
12.2 Erick Dampier
12.7 Brendan Haywood
12.6 Tyson Chandler

Faried's defensive rebounding is nowhere close (Rodman was typically over 30% finishing his career having grabbed 29.6% while Faried is hovering around 22.3% for his career), but matching Rodman on one side of the court is an impressive feat nonetheless.

Roy Hibbert
76 Overall (-3)
91 Inside (-3)
81 Close (-2)
75 Fade (-4)
86 Hook (-9)
88 Block (+2)
93 OffReb (+4)
72 DefReb (-3)
76 OffPost (-4)
68 OffAwr (-9)
55 Consistency (-15)

Hibbert has once again struggled offensively at the start of the year, and I'm lead to believe this is simply a trend for him.

Monthly Career Splits
November: 9.7 ppg
December: 9.9 ppg
January: 11.2 ppg
February: 11.9 ppg
March: 11.0 ppg
April: 12.9 ppg

He'll get it together in a month or so.  His defense and rebounding have been more than adequate.  The Pacers are actually the #1 defensive team so far, but are only 28th offensively in part to Hibbert's struggles.

Rodney Stuckey
78 Overall (-1)
81 Close (-3)
71 Med (-1)
70 3pt (-3)
75 OffAwr (-4)
63 DefAwr (-2)
60 Consistency (-5)
76 Durability (-4)

I wish 2K would do more changes like this.  Stuckey has been shooting the ball poorly, and saw a slight drop to his shot ratings.  There are PLENTY of NBA players who have struggled out of the gate though, and it seems a bit unfair to pick on Stuckey and not the rest.  The problem is they never have the consistency to keep up.  If Stuckey reverts to form, it's unlikely 2K will notice.

DeMar DeRozan
77 Overall (+3)
76 Hands (+4)
60 OffReb (+7)
43 DefReb (+4)
80 OffAwr (+2)
58 DefAwr (+4)
75 Consistency (+5)
75 Hustle (+4)

A 2K update wouldn't be complete without a rebound rating that goes against their scale.  DeRozan's Offensive Rebound rate is 3.0%, which would typically be a 40 rating under 2K's own rating scale.  Naturally, instead of lowering it, they should raise it even further (as if last year's 53 rating to a 2.1 ORB% wasn't enough)!  What DeRozan DID improve on was his defensive rebounding, up to 15% from last season's 9%. If that sticks, it's worthy of a 20 point boost.  However, 2K saw fit to give only a 4 point boost despite the inexplicable boost to offensive rebounding.

DeRozan shot 34.3% from mid-range last season, yet has an 86 Mid-range rating.  He is shooting 34.2% this year.  This rating was unchanged, because for whatever reason it's really important to highlight DeRozan as... a good shooter?  Come on 2K.

James Harden
83 Overall (+2)
75 Med (+8)
73 SOD (+2)
71 Pass (+11)
89 OffAwr (+3)
70 Consistency (+5)
94 Stamina (+2)

Harden never should have had a Mid-range rating as low as 67.  Though limited in sample, he shot  43.2% (70-162) over the prior two seasons.  Early on, he is shooting 39.1% (9-23)

It is a bit hypocritical that 2K continues to look only at the good, and never at the bad (or vice versa) when they make an edit.  Harden is shooting only 26% from 3pt range and has an 86 rating.  Why is it they will give Kyrie Irving a 1 point boost to his 3pt shooting, but not even give Harden that small of a decrease?  He certainly deserves it up to this point.

Andrei Kirilenko
78 Overall (+4)
79 Block (+6)
72 OffReb (+19)
63 DefReb (+5)
72 OffAwr (+8)
91 DefAwr (+3)
65 Consistency (+20)
90 Stamina (+3)
66 Speed (+3)
68 Quickness (+2)
91 Hustle (+6)

Aside from the block and rebound adjustments, these are all rating changes Kirilenko should have gotten back during the 2010-11 season.

Damian Lillard
77 Overall (+6)
75 3pt (-5)
91 Layup (+5)
68 Traffic (+4)
74 SOD (+3)
93 Handle (+5)
91 OHD (+7)
83 Security (+18)
82 Pass (+12)
79 Hands (+4)
38 OffReb (+11)
82 OffAwr (+12)
55 DefAwr (+4)
65 Consistency (+15)
92 Speed (+2)
95 Quickness (+2)

The decrease to Lillard's 3pt rating is absolutely baffling.  He has been shooting at a good percentage all year long, and is currently 23-58 (39.7%) through 9 games.  He's averaging 2.6 makes per game, and 2K thinks this is worthy of 75?  This has to be a typo for 85, as the rest of his ratings all went up and Lillard is regarded as a quality shooter.

Improvement to ball handling is well-deserved, as Lillard has been one of the league's best in Isolation  (7th) and Pick and Roll (4th) situations thus far.

Lillard's passing has been a surprise to many.  After averaging only 4 assists his senior season, he is averaging 6 assists at the NBA level.  This is mainly due to not being relied on so heavily to score, even though he is still averaging 19 points as a rookie (which is still only 3rd on the Blazers).

2K also added the following players who were previously missing.

Donald Sloan: 63 Overall (PG) - Cavaliers
Much needed addition as he's been the backup PG all season long.  Now that Kyrie Irving is hurt, he'll see an even  more time.

Chris Copeland: 64 Overall (SF) - Knicks
Has been sharing garbage time with James White (who is STILL missing despite having previousy been in 2K and even has his own dunk package in the game).  Copeland wasn't added for his on-court contributions, but rather to give the Knicks enough players to deactivate the injured Amare Stoudemire.

DeQuan Jones: 62 Overall (SG/SF) - Magic
The biggest surprise of NBA training camp has struggled, but he's also started 3 games at SF.

Kyle Singler: 62 Overall (SF) - Pistons
Singler has been operating as the Pistons' sixth man, but recently took Rodney Stuckey's place in the starting lineup.  It appears that Singler is grossly underrated and will need a boost in the near future.

Joel Freeland: 62 Overall (PF/C) - Trail Blazers
Freeland was one of two missing European rookies for the Blazers, and has barely played thus far, but does have a guaranteed multi-year deal (as does the still missing Victor Claver).


Maalik Waayns (PG) - 76ers
Cory Higgins (PG) - Bobcats
Terrel Harris (SG) - Heat
Brian Roberts (PG) - Hornets
Lance Thomas (PF) - Hornets
Kevin Murphy (SG) - Jazz
James White (SF) - Knicks
Darius Johnson-Odom (SG) - Lakers
Robert Sacre (C) - Lakers
Julyan Stone (PG) - Nuggets
Ben Hansbrough (SG) - Pacers
Slava Kravstov (C) - Pistons
Scott Machado (PG) - Rockets
Greg Smith (C) - Rockets
Nando De Colo (SG) - Spurs
Diante Garrett (SG) - Suns
Luke Zeller (C) - Suns
Victor Claver (SF) - Trail Blazers
Kent Bazemore (SG) - Warriors

2K still can't seem to get many lineups right, as 10 teams (1/3rd of the league) have something wrong with them.

PG: Kemba Walker
SG: Ramon Sessions
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
PF: Brendan Haywood
C: Byron Mullens

2K seriously has Haywood starting at PF and not Mullens.   I wish I were making this up.  Also, Jeff Taylor has been starting at SG, not Sessions.

PG: Rajon Rondo
SG: Courtney Lee
SF: Paul Pierce
PF: Brandon Bass
C: Kevin Garnett

Jason Terry has taken over starting duties from Courtney Lee.

PG: Jeff Teague
SG: Anthony Morrow
SF: Kyle Korver
PF: Josh Smith
C: Al Horford

Morrow hasn't started a single game for the Hawks.  DeShawn Stevenson has been starting of late.  Seriously, how sloppy can they get?

PG: Greivis Vasquez
SG: Austin Rivers
SF: Al-Farouq Aminu
PF: Ryan Anderson
C: Anthony Davis

2K still has this one wrong.  Robin Lopez has started every single game at center.  Anthony Davis has been starting at PF while Ryan Anderson has been the 6th man.

PG: Mo Williams
SG: Gordan Hayward
SF: Marvin Williams
PF: Paul Millsap
C: Al Jefferson

Utah recently replaced Hayward and Williams in the starting lineup with Randy Foye and Derrick Favors (Millsap shifting to SF).

PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Tyreke Evans
SF: James Johnson
PF: Jason Thompson
C: DeMarcus Cousins

Sacramento recently replaced Thomas and Johnson in the starting lineup with Aaron Brooks and John Salmons, the latter of whom isn't even on 2K's active roster.

The lineup isn't the problem, it's the fact that Amare Stoudemire is still on the active roster despite the addition of Chris Copeland.  That was the sole purpose of Copeland's addition to their roster, as w/ 14 players they can put both Amare and Shumpert on injured reserve.

PG: George Hill
SG: Gerald Green
SF: Paul George
PF: David West
C: Roy Hibbert

Lance Stephenson has been starting at SG, not Green.

PG: Brandon Knight
SG: Rodney Stuckey
SF: Tayshaun Prince
PF: Jason Maxiell
C: Greg Monroe

The struggling Stuckey (whom 2K lowered) has been moved to the bench in favor of Kyle Singler (whom 2K just added).  Let's see if this change reflects next week.

PG: Tony Parker
SG: Danny Green
SF: Kawhi Leonard
PF: Boris Diaw
C: Tim Duncan

Leonard is hurt, was replaced by Stephen Jackson who got hurt in his first game starting.  Gary Neal will move to the starting lineup pushing Green to SF.  The team just signed former-Spur James Anderson to a non-guaranteed deal to fill out the wing-depth  DeJuan Blair has also been starting over Boris Diaw at PF of late.

PG: A.J. Price
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Trevor Ariza
PF: Trevor Booker
C: Emeka Okafor

Washington recently replaced Beal and Booker in the starting lineup with Jordan Crawford and Jan Vesley.

As with prior updates, 2K got some things right, but continues to get a lot of things wrong.  The problem is many of these errors are common sense and are quickly fixed by community members who aren't appropriately compensated for their work, while 2K presumably has A TEAM of people who can't seem to meet their fanbase's quality expectations.


John Sheahan said...

I believe you forgot Kevin Murphy of the Jazz on your list of players who need to be added to the game

Caveman said...

How many players are on active team rosters? I can't check right now, but I just remembered that the NBA changed their rules last year and made active rosters 13 deep instead of 12. I don't think 2K's even realized this yet.

Rashidi said...

2K active rosters are 12, not 13.

I wonder how much further that adjustment would screw up their simulations.

Caveman said...

Finally got my game back and I realized they screwed up self-alley oops, too. A self alley-oop should count as two shots: the lob off the backboard and then dunk attempt both are counted as shots in the NBA. Not a huge thing but something that is easy to know if you, ya know, produce a "sim" basketball game.