Saturday, October 11, 2014

NBA 2K15 Dunk Ratings - Point Guards

Last week I speculated that PG dunking would be an issue in NBA 2K15 due to video released of Zach LaVine tearing it up on the 2K hardwood.  It appears I was only half-right.  LaVine is a problem but with few exceptions, the rest of the league's PGs will be fine.

I love that stats seemed to play a big part in sorting out where these guys should be rated, and as far as the PGs go we can use this as a barometer for future ratings.

NBA 2K14's Dunk Scales (2K15 has not yet been gameplay tested as of this writing)
25: Can't Dunk
45: Under 6'2" can Dunk when open (it seems like 30 is the new cutoff for this)
55: Can Dunk
70: Can Dunk in Traffic
85: Can Dunk in Heavy Traffic

Dunk Rating - Player (% of FGAs) - Total dunks in 2014 (unless otherwise noted)
NC = No Change
NA = Not Available (new addition to roster)

POINT GUARDS - Dunk Rating
98 (NA) Zach LaVine (Rookie)
89 (+6) John Wall (3.2%) - 43
86 (+2) Derrick Rose (1.7%) - 12* (2012 stats)
82 (-2) Russell Westbrook (4.4%) - 30
78 (+18) Damian Lillard (2.1%) - 22
73 (-4) Austin Rivers (1.5%) - 7
73 (-13) Eric Bledsoe (0.9%) - 5
73 (-11) Nate Robinson (0.8%) - 3
69 (+17) Shaun Livingston (11.3%) - 50
69 (+1) Reggie Jackson (3.2%) - 27
65 (-12) Tony Wroten (3.8%) - 29 (Listed at SG in 2K15)
65 (+10) Jeff Teague (0.9%) - 8
60 (+2) Michael Carter-Williams (2.9%) - 29
53 (-25) Ronnie Price (5.4%) - 4
53 (NC) Norris Cole (0.6%) - 3
51 (NC) Mario Chalmers (0.7%) - 4
50 (+8) Ray McCallum (3.3%) - 8
50 (-5) Ramon Sessions (1.7%) - 13
50 (-18) Julyan Stone (0.4%) - 2* (career stats)
50 (NA) Marcus Smart (Rookie)
48 (-30) Marquis Teague (0.4%) - 0* (career stats)
45 (-1) George Hill (1.1%) - 7
45 (+5) Darren Collison (1.0%) - 7
45 (-24) Jerryd Bayless (1.0%) - 3
45 (+4) Goran Dragic (0.9%) - 9
45 (-23) Toure Murry (0.8%) - 1 (Listed at SG in 2K15)
45 (-16) Deron Williams (0.6%) - 4
45 (-21) Louis Williams (0.6%) - 3
45 (NA) Jordan Clarkson (Rookie)
45 (NA) Spencer Dinwiddie (Rookie)
43 (NA) Orien Greene (4.9%) - 15* (career stats)
40 (NC) Jrue Holiday (1.4%) - 16* (2013 stats)
40 (-15) Brandon Knight (0.8%) - 7
40 (-9) Brandon Jennings (0.4%) - 4
40 (-15) Isaiah Canaan (0.0%) - 0
40 (NA) Lorenzo Brown (0.0%) - 0
40 (NA) Sherron Collins (0.0%) - 0* (career stats)
38 (-26) Jordan Farmar (0.5%) - 2
36 (-32) Donald Sloan (1.0%) - 3* (career stats)
36 (-9) Jeremy Lin (0.6%) - 4
36 (-5) Stephen Curry (0.4%) - 4
36 (NC) Seth Curry (0.0%) - 0
35 (+5) Phil Pressey (0.8%) - 2
35 (NA) Russ Smith (Rookie) (Listed at SG in 2K15)
35 (-13) Mo Williams (0.0%) - 0 (one dunk in NBA career)
35 (NA) Jorge Gutierrez (0.0%) - 0
35 (-33) Nemanja Nedovic (0.0%) - 0
31 (-17) Jarrett Jack (0.3%) - 2
30 (-25) Rajon Rondo (0.6%) - 3* (2013 stats)
30 (-38) Ty Lawson (0.4%) - 2
30 (-19) Ish Smith (0.4%) - 1
30 (+5) Mike Conley (0.2%) - 2
30 (-30) Kyrie Irving (0.2%) - 2
30 (-15) Patrick Beverley (0.2%) - 1
30 (-20) Kemba Walker (0.1%) - 0
30 (-10) Trey Burke (0.1%) - 1
30 (-46) Will Bynum (0.0%) - 0
30 (-39) Devin Harris (0.0%) - 0 (one dunk in 4 years)
30 (-25) Shelvin Mack (0.0%) - 0 (one dunk in 3 years)
30 (-20) Cory Joseph (0.0%) - 0 (one dunk in 3 years)
30 (-10) Diante Garrett (0.0% - 0
30 (-10) Dwight Buycks (0.0%) - 0
30 (NA) Shabazz Napier (Rookie)
30 (NA) Dante Exum (Rookie)
30 (NA) Elfrid Payton (Rookie)
28 (-20) Nando De Colo (0.5%) - 2* (career stats)
28 (-17) Greivis Vasquez (0.0%) - 0
28 (-12) C.J. Watson (0.0%) - 0
28 (-13) Brian Roberts (0.0%) - 0
27 (+2) Chris Paul (0.1%) - 1
27 (-28) Isaiah Thomas (0.0%) - 0 (has never dunked in NBA career)
27 (-13) Kendall Marshall (0.0%) - 0
27 (-18) Nick Calathes (0.0%) - 0
26 (-35) Nate Wolters (0.0%) - 0
25 (-15) Matthew Dellavedova (0.0%) - 0
25 (NA) Tyler Ennis (Rookie)
25 (NC) - Everyone else (0.0%) - 0

BY THE NUMBERS
38 PG saw their dunk rating decrease by double digits.
3 PG saw a double digit increase.
13 PG have a dunk rating 55 or greater.
8 PG have a dunk rating 70 or greater.
3 PG have a dunk rating 85 or greater.

Going by the old scales, very few PGs will be able to dunk in traffic now, though the star PGs and athletic freaks (LaVine, Wall, Rose, Westbrook) will probably still be able to do this way too frequently for my liking.

The biggest issue might not be Zach LaVine's dunk rating but rather the fact that he is listed as a Point Guard.  LaVine exclusively played Shooting Guard at UCLA.

Via DraftExpress:
-As one might expect considering his relatively meager production as a freshman at UCLA,Zach Lavine's situational profile doesn't paint a pretty picture. Using 9.7 possessions per-game, he ranks as the lowest usage player in this group, and as the least efficient scorer in both one-on-one and pick and roll situations. On the positive side, LaVine's athleticism shows here, as 32.1% of his possessions came in transition, more than any other player, and while he scored an above average 1.148 points per-catch and shoot jump shot, the team drafting him probably won't be overly concerned with how he looked on paper this past season as focused as they'll be on putting him in position to reach his lofty potential a few years from now.

Additionally, from DX's Scouting Report
To his credit, LaVine does a good job of not turning the ball over too often, coughing the ball up on 12% of his possessions (11th best of the 22 SGs in our Top-100), which helped him post an acceptable PPR (.21) and assist to turnover ratio (1.57). When LaVine puts the ball on the floor, it's mostly to shoot a pull-up jumper, which helps him keep the turnovers to a minimum. Somewhere along the line a narrative developed about LaVine possibly projecting as a point guard down the road, but after watching him in high school and at UCLA, it's difficult to see where that came from.

I also highly recommend DX's 14 minute scouting report as further evidence against LaVine.  He's been playing SG next to Mo Williams this pre-season.  Dock his ability to do this off the dribble and his 98 dunk rating would be totally fine (or at least no worse than the abuse we've seen over the years from Gerald Green).

One possible reason for LaVine's dunk rating not jiving with the rest of the players is 2K's rookie ratings have typically been done by a different producer than the one who rates the rest of the players (Remember the STATS Inc mumbo jumbo that 2K was pushing last year?  They automate a bulk of their ratings using a stats program, of which NCAA players do not have applicable data).  This was noticeable in previous iterations of the game.  For example last year 400+ NBA players were held to a 50-99 steal scale (the lowest being Meyers Leonard at 50 Steal), but numerous rookies (eleven!) rated below 50.  One can take this a step further and observe the ratings for legend players; these likewise had to be "handcrafted" and thus weren't scaled with modern players.

Further cementing my theory is that Dante Exum has 30 Dunk rating.



Watching the video it seems like an obvious blunder to rate the 6'6" Exum equally to his teammate, 6'0" Trey Burke.  With the rest of the NBA rating so well and LaVine/Exum rating so poorly on opposite ends of the spectrum (they are 68 points apart!), I don't believe the same person could be responsible.  With that said, while the ratings producer may not have come up with these default ratings, it will be his responsibility to clean up that mess.
  • MISCELLANEOUS NOTES
    Derrick Rose missed two seasons and saw his dunk rating increase, while Russell Westbrook (who has ALWAYS been the far superior dunker) saw his decrease?  At best, Rose should be in the mid-70s Damian Lillard/Eric Bledsoe range.
  • Shaun Livingston's dunk rate is absurdly high because he spent most of the year as a wing, starting and playing next to Deron Williams.  I wouldn't really count him as a  PG which is the main reason why his rating deviates from scale.  It's much easier to get dunks playing off-ball rather than on.
  • Heat PGs Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole were seemingly passed over during the editing process,  as their dunk ratings should both be in the 40-45 range when looking at scale.  They appear to be the only players missed and they play for the same team, so it sure seems like an oversight.
  • Nate Robinson is still too high for my liking.  While the 3-time dunk champ might be great in contests on an uncontested rim, he's never been a prolific in-game dunker.  At 30 years old coming off a torn ACL, his best days are definitely behind him.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Great Read Rashidi

2KFonz from over at OS here, i'll be actively reading your latest thread as the GG ZL dunk cheese has bothered me for quite a while now

Wayne Wilson said...

Will you also be posting an analysis of the SF, PF and C dunk ratings? I would also be interested in this good article.