Sunday, November 16, 2014

NBA 2K15 Team Rating Analysis - How accurate are the rosters?

Much has been made of 2K Sports' new dedication to updated rosters in NBA 2K15, with near daily updates.  However, how much of an impact have those updates had on the gameplay and team performance?

We're about 10 games (1/8th) into the NBA season now and I've noticed that while 2K has been adjusting a couple player attributes here and there, none of these have been anywhere near significant enough to make a dent in overall performance.  Trends and data points are starting to become consistent production, which means 2K will need to up the ante with regard to player ratings.

I'm going to use SRS (Simple Rating System - point differential weighted against strength of schedule) to sort the teams and then compare against their 2K rating to determine how accurate the rosters are league-wide right now.

Red denotes team is performing BETTER than 2K rating.
Blue denotes team is performing WORSE than 2K rating.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
6.50 Raptors (87)
3.99 Cavaliers (89)
0.85 Celtics (82)
0.69 Nets (79)
0.52 Heat (85)
0.44 Bulls (90)
-1.09 Wizards (84)
-2.02 Hawks (83)
-2.40 Hornets (85)
-4.11 Pacers (69)
-4.41 Magic (75)
-5.30 Bucks (75)
-6.63 Pistons (78)
-7.90 Knicks (80)
-14.11 Sixers (68)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

11.60 Warriors (84)
10.43 Trail Blazers (85)
9.45 Mavericks (83)
7.39 Pelicans (83)
6.98 Rockets (83)
4.71 Spurs (90)
4.36 Kings (80)
3.11 Clippers (91)
2.81 Grizzlies (83)
0.03 Suns (82)
-3.19 Thunder (75)
-3.56 Jazz (73)
-3.67 Nuggets (80)
-5.53 Lakers (77)
-7.53 Timberwolves (79)

The elite teams in NBA 2K15 (Clippers, Spurs, Bulls, Cavaliers) have all struggled out of the gates compared to just about every "mid-range" west team.  Drastic change is needed, or the roster could be a poor representation of the NBA by the time Christmas rolls around.  It's still early enough in the game to prevent this from snowballing out of control.

I've previously mentioned that lots of players have poor defensive ratings.  There are 19 teams whose defensive ratings could use some work (5+ ranking differential including ELEVEN for whom it's a major issue (10+ ranking differential).

Golden State Warriors (7-2)
11.60 SRS (1st) / 84 Overall (9th)
106.0 ORTG (17th) / 82 Offense (14th)
96.9 DRTG (2nd) / 84 Defense (6th)

Portland Trail Blazers (7-3)
10.43 SRS (2nd) / 85 Overall (8th)
112.2 ORTG (5th) / 82 Offense (3rd)
103.2 DRTG (9th) / 84 Defense (22nd)

Dallas Mavericks (7-3)
9.45 SRS (3rd) / 85 Overall (14th)
116.9 ORTG (1st) /  89 Offense (5th)
106.8 DRTG (18th) / 76 Defense (25th)

New Orleans Pelicans (5-3)
7.39 SRS (4th) / 83 Overall (12th)
112.4 ORTG (4th) / 80 Offense (18th)
104.7 DRTG (12th) / 86 Defense (8th)

Houston Rockets (8-1)
6.98 SRS (5th) / 83 Overall (11th)
106.9 ORTG (13th) 87 Offense (6th)
96.4 DRTG (1st) 78 Defense (18th)

Toronto Raptors (8-2)
6.50 SRS (6th) / 87 Overall (5th)
112.7 ORTG (3rd) / 86 Offense (10th)
102.5 DRTG (7th) / 87 Defense (4th)

San Antonio Spurs (5-4)
4.71 SRS (7th) / 90 Overall (2nd)
101.7 ORTG (23rd) / 90 Offense (4th)
100.9 DRTG (5th) / 91 Defense (2nd)

Sacramento Kings (6-4)
4.36 SRS (8th) / 80 Overall (18th)
107.2 ORTG (12th) / 81 Offense (16th)
106.0 DRTG (16th) 79 Defense (16th)

Cleveland Cavaliers (5-3)
3.99 SRS (9th) / 89 Overall (4th)
114.6 ORTG (2nd) / 91 Offense (1st)
110.6 DRTG (24th) / 86 Defense (9th)

Los Angeles Clippers (5-3)
3.11 SRS (10th) / 91 Overall (1st)
108.3 ORTG (10th) / Offense (2nd)
107.5 DRTG (22nd) / Defense (3rd)

Memphis Grizzlies (9-1)
2.81 SRS (11th) / Overall (15th)
106.0 ORTG (18th) / Offense (22nd)
100.4 DRTG (4th) / Defense (5th)

Boston Celtics (3-5)
0.85 SRS (12th) / Overall (17th)
111.0 ORTG (6th) / Offense (21st)
112.8 DRTG (27th) / Defense (10th)

Brooklyn Nets (4-5)
0.69 SRS (13th) / 79 Overall (21st)
108.3 ORTG (9th) / 80 Offense (17th)
106.8 DRTG (17th) / 79 Defense (15th)

Miami Heat (5-4)
0.52 SRS (14th) / 85 Overall (6th)
109.1 ORTG (7th) / 84 Offense (12th)
107.5 DRTG (20th) / 87 Defense (7th)

Chicago Bulls (7-3)
0.44 SRS (15th) / 90 Overall (3rd)
108.6 ORTG (8th) / 87 Offense (7th)
104.1 DRTG (10th) / 92 Defense (1st)

Phoenix Suns (5-5)
0.03 SRS (16th) / 82 Overall (16th)
106.2 ORTG (15th) / 86 Offense (8th)
107.2 DRTG (19th) / 78 Defense (20th)

Washington Wizards (7-2)
-1.09 SRS (17th) / 84 Overall (10th)
104.4 ORTG (19th) / 86 Offense (9th)
102.1 DRTG (6th) / 81 Defense (13th)

Atlanta Hawks (5-4)
-2.02 SRS (18th) / 83 Overall (13th)
106.6 ORTG (14th) / 84 Offense (13th)
107.5 DRTG (21st) / 82 Defense (12th)

Charlotte Hornets (4-6)
-2.40 SRS (19th) / 85 Overall (7th)
101.1 ORTG (25th) / 86 Offense (11th)
104.9 DRTG (13th) / 84 Defense (11th)

Oklahoma City Thunder (3-7)
-3.19 SRS (20th) / 75 Overall (25th)
100.1 ORTG (28th) / 72 Offense (28th)
105.0 DRTG (14th) / 78 Defense (19th)

Utah Jazz (4-7)
-3.56 SRS (21st) / 73 Overall (28th)
108.1 ORTG (11th) / 74 Offense (26th)
114.0 DRTG (29th) / 72 Defense (29th)

Denver Nuggets (2-6)
-3.67 SRS (22nd) / 80 Overall (19th)
104.3 ORTG (20th) / 80 Offense (20th)
110.6 DRTG (23rd) / 79 Defense (17th)

Indiana Pacers (4-7)
-4.11 SRS (23rd) / 69 Overall (29th)
100.9 ORTG (27th) / 66 Offense (29th)
102.8 DRTG (8th) / 72 Defense (28th)

Orlando Magic (4-7)
-4.41 SRS (24th) / 75 Overall (26th)
101.2 ORTG (24th) / 73 Offense (27th)
104.4 DRTG (11th) / 77 Defense (24th)

Milwaukee Bucks (4-5)
-5.30 SRS (25th) / 75 Overall (27th)
97.1 ORTG (29th) / 75 Offense (25th)
98.9 DRTG (3rd) / 74 Defense (27th)

Los Angeles Lakers (1-8)
-5.53 SRS (26th) / 77 Overall (24th)
106.1 ORTG (16th) / 78 Offense (24th)
116.0 DRTG (30th) / 75 Defense (26th)

Detroit Pistons (3-7)
-6.63 SRS (27th) / 78 Overall (23rd)
101.1 ORTG (26th) / 78 Offense (23rd)
105.2 DRTG (15th) / 78 Defense (21st)

Minnesota Timberwolves (2-7)
-7.53 SRS (28th) / 79 Overall (19th)
103.4 ORTG (22nd) / 80 Offense (23rd)
113.1 DRTG (28th) / 78 Defense (22nd)

New York Knicks (2-8)
-7.90 SRS (29th) / 80 Overall (20th)
104.3 ORTG (21st) / 81 Offense (15th)
111.3 DRTG (26th) / 80 Defense (14th)

Philadelphia 76ers (0-9)
-14.11 SRS (30th) / 68 Overall (30th)
91.8 ORTG (30th) / 63 Offense (30th)
108.2 DRTG (23rd) / 72 Defense (30th)

Moving forward, I'd like to update this list daily to check 2K's status and the progress of the league.  It's easier than writing about anywhere from 5 to 100 daily attribute edits.  That'll also allow me to highlight over a longer period of time which players are getting snubbed in the 2K roster.

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