Monday, November 3, 2014

NBA 2K15 Roster Analysis 11/1/14

It appears that 2K Sports will be providing daily roster updates this year, as they are posting the details on Operation Sports.  I'll be breaking down the notable changes throughout the year, at least as much as my work schedule permits.   I will not be discussing Accessories, Shoes, Signature Shots, or Armpit Hair.  Thanks for your understanding. ~Rashidi

PLAYER RATING / BADGE EDITS
Trevor Booker (Jazz)
74 Overall (NC)
59 Standing Three (+34)
38 Moving Three (+13)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 72 1553 15.0 .563 10.9 17.5 6.3 1.4 2.4 11.7 14.4
2014-15 3 66 26.1 .715 12.0 23.4 5.4 1.6 0.0 13.4 20.0

Booker added a 3pt shot to his repertoire, shooting 3-7 over the first three games after going 1-10 over the first 4 years of his career. The fact that Booker's 3pt shot went up so much yet didn't change his overall rating is a bit disheartening, the same ol' PF scales that nerf stretch-fours are still in place.


Dante Exum (Jazz)
73 Overall (-1)
72 Standing Three (-2)
70 Moving Three (-5)
35 Offensive Consistency (-10)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2014-15 3 47 13.6 .666 0.0 5.5 12.6 3.3 1.8 23.9 15.8

This adjustment was almost certainly premature and should be nullified.  Exum hit 3-4 3PT on 11/1 and is shooting 4-8 on the season.

Rodney Hood (Jazz)
70 Overall (-1)
78 Standing Three (-6)
75 Moving Three (-5)


Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2014-15 3 53 2.4 .295 0.0 14.6 5.2 1.0 3.2 4.7 17.8

Hood is shooting 21% from the field (1-10 3PT) through his first three games.  Unlike Exum, this decrease makes sense.

J.R. Smith (Knicks)

78 Overall (NC)
BADGES
Prime Time


Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 80 2678 17.6 .522 2.7 16.3 14.5 2.0 0.8 8.8 26.5
2013-14 74 2421 14.0 .527 1.7 13.1 15.1 1.4 0.7 9.6 21.6
2014-15 3 74 8.3 .441 0.0 9.2 26.7 1.5 0.0 18.1 21.6

I really don't think J.R. should be getting any further bonuses until he stops playing like dirt.  He had a couple big shots against the Cavs but that doesn't merit a badge.  It spits in the face of fans who know that J.R. has been AWFUL in big games... like the playoffs.


Season Age Tm G MP PER TS% USG%
2006-07 21 DEN 4 47 9.3 .365 27.2
2007-08 22 DEN 4 108 22.8 .681 22.5
2008-09 23 DEN 16 435 16.9 .558 25.2
2009-10 24 DEN 6 159 12.5 .523 19.5
2010-11 25 DEN 5 76 12.0 .492 34.8
2011-12 26 NYK 5 175 5.4 .384 24.5
2012-13 27 NYK 11 351 10.7 .432 27.7
Career 51 1351 13.2 .497 25.5

An 11-point game against an adjusting Cavaliers team doesn't change one player's history.

Quincy Acy (Knicks)
70 Overall (+2)
82 Offensive Rebound (+10)
70 Defensive Rebound (+3)
78 Box Out (+8)
BADGES
Scrapper (Bronze)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2012-13 29 342 15.9 .632 10.3 16.6 5.2 2.0 3.5 15.6 14.7
2013-14 63 847 10.1 .520 9.5 19.5 4.9 1.4 2.5 15.4 10.1
2014-15 3 64 10.6 .471 15.0 23.3 12.6 0.0 3.0 19.0 15.8

Acy was exceptional against the Cavs, killing them on the offensive glass.  One thing of note is Acy's assist rate.  The Knicks' assists are up across the board.  They recorded 30 assists against Cleveland which already eclipsed last year's team high of 29 (RIP Mike Woodson, architect of the Iso-Joe/Melo Offense, long live Big Chief Triangle)

Nikola Vucevic (Magic)
81 Overall (+1)
96 Defensive Rebound (+3)
94 Box Out (+4)
BADGES
Tenacious Rebounder (Silver)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 57 1812 18.8 .536 11.5 27.6 10.2 1.7 2.0 12.9 21.8
2014-15 3 107 22.9 .539 8.3 35.5 14.7 1.4 3.2 9.2 23.0

As per usual, Vucevic has rebounded the ball very well, but he's also played better across the board.  Over the first few games he's averaging 18/16/3 along with 1.7 BPG and 53 FG%.  It's worth noting he hit the 4th three-pointer of his career (after not hiting any the last two seasons) so his 3PT Rating/Tendency might be getting updated.

Elfrid Payton (Magic)
74 Overall (-1)
55 Shot IQ (-5)
84 Pass Vision (+2)
40 Offensive Consistency (-5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2014-15 3 84 8.8 .403 6.6 6.9 42.3 0.6 0.0 24.8 19.6

Despite Payton's poor shooting, there's a lot to like about his passing, defense, and athleticism.  He's similar to a young Rajon Rondo.  His offensive rebound rating (42) could see a 10-20 point boost if he keeps it up.




Isaiah Thomas (Suns)
81 Overall (+1)
84 Shot IQ (+4)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 72 2497 20.5 .574 2.1 7.5 32.2 1.9 0.3 14.3 26.3
2014-15 3 71 28.3 .659 4.6 4.8 25.6 0.0 0.0 8.6 29.9
IT2 has been lights out as "Microwave" Pizza Guy.  Last year he averaged 20 points per 35 minutes.  This year he's averaging 19 points per 24 minutes.  He should be the easy choice for Sixth Man of the Year if he maintains anything close to last year's production.

I should note that I still don't really know what effect (if any) that "Shot IQ" has on the game from a user standpoint.  Currently, I'm under the assumption that it is "Offensive Awareness" and acts as "recognition" of shot quality for players.

Perry Jones (Thunder)
70 Overall (+1)
75 Shot IQ (+5)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2013-14 62 764 10.1 .541 4.3 12.1 4.9 0.9 2.0 9.5 12.8
2014-15 3 113 13.3 .563 2.4 10.8 8.8 0.9 0.8 13.4 23.5

With so many players hurt for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Jones will finally get an opportunity to produce.  He scored 32 points on 10/30 and 23 points on 11/1 (the latter game I presume coming after this update).  With his usage rate effectively doubling, he'll surely see boosts in other rating categories over the next month.

Andrew Wiggins (Timberwolves)
76 Overall (-1)
65 Free Throw (-13)
64 Ball Control (-5)
30 Offensive Consistency (-10)
Season G MP PER TS% ORB% DRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
2014-15 3 73 5.6 .406 6.1 14.9 4.1 3.5 2.2 22.8 21.0

Wiggins has really struggled out of the gates, akin to last year's #1 Overall pick, Anthony Bennett.  He is shooting the ball poorly, and has yet to hit double-figure scoring in any game, although he has played two of the league's top defenses in Memphis and Chicago.  His defensive stats are still top notch, but he'll need to get it going offensively or some decreases will be in his future.

Meyers Leonard (Trail Blazers)
68 Overall (NC)
55 Standing 3PT (+16)
40 Moving 3PT (+11)
Season G GS MP 3P 3PA 3P%
2012-13 69 9 1206 3 7 .429
2013-14 40 0 355 0 6 .000
Career 109 9 1561 3 13 .231

Leonard hasn't actually played a game this season - this is merely reflecting that he hit three 3PT as a rookie and does consider them part of his "arsenal".

Player Tendency Edits
I probably am not going to touch on these too much throughout the year, the changes are usually attached to ratings adjustments that should already be explained above.

Perry Jones - Increased 3PT, Touches, and Shot Tendencies
Trevor Booker - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Al Horford - Increased Touches
Paul Millsap - Increased Touches
Dwight Howard - Increased Touches
Aaron Gordon - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Kyle O’Quinn - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Timofey Mozgov - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Brandon Davies - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Meyers Leonard - Increased 3PT Tendencies
Perry Jones tendencies were updated to reflect his significantly larger role in the offense with the rest of his team hurt (having averaged 27.5 PPG over the last two).

I suspect Millsap/Horford were not getting enough plays called for them, so hopefully this leads to improved team AI.

The rest of these players are bigs who added 3pt shooting to their game.  

INJURED/INACTIVE
Kyle O’Quinn (ORL)
Toure Murry (UTA)
Russell Westbrook (OKC)
I just want to touch on these to provide some explanation as to what 2K means in this category.  To be clear, only Russell Westbrook carries the "injury" distinction.  Kyle O'Quinn is "Day-to-Day" in reality but merely deactivated from the active roster in the roster.  I suspect that 2K will only be applying DTD injuries when not doing so would keep them on the active roster.

Example: The Orlando Magic have 15 players, with one injured for a month (Victor Oladipo).  Instead of applying DTD status to O'Quinn, he can simply be moved to the 14th spot on the roster.  However if a second player on the Magic had a long-term injury, then O'Qunn would be more likely to actually get DTD status, which would make him unusable due to injury (necessary since he'd still be on the active roster).

ACTIVATED
Channing Frye (ORL)
Joe Inglis (UTA)
Jeremy Lamb (OKC)
Reggie Jackson (OKC)
Conversely, not all of these players are recovering from injury.  Joe Ingles (3 games played) is taking Toure Murry's (0 games played) spot on the active roster.

Channing Frye is the only player recovering from injury.  Jeremy Lamb and Reggie Jackson are still injured, but I believe their injury status was upgraded from Red (unplayable) to Yellow (playable), thus "activating" them.  That makes them playable in Online games; Thunder fans surely need the help right now.

CONTRACT UPDATES

Rookie Options (Team Option exercised)
Michael Carter Williams
Nerlens Noel
Tony Wroten
Jared Sullinger
Kelly Olynyk
Tyler Zeller
Reggie Bullock
Dennis Schroeder
Terrence Jones
Donatas Motiejunas


While 2K exercised the rookie options they DID NOT adjust the contracts of players who had that option DECLINED (those who will be unrestricted free agents in 2015).

I have previously mentioned this area is still lacking the requisite attention to detail (most rookie contracts are off), and hopefully by making light of this, the errors will be corrected.  Unlike ratings and tendencies, contracts need only be adjusted once.

Extensions

Klay Thompson 4 year 70 Million Dollar Extension
Alec Burks 4 year 42 Million Dollar Extension
Anderson Varejao 3 year 30 Million Dollar Extension
Klay Thompson followed up his new contract with a 41 point game.   He's been playing like a max player this year, currently leading the league in scoring at 29.7 PPG (69 TS% on 29 USG%)

Alec Burks is a bit of a gamble for a player who only started 12 games over his first three years, but that was also under incompetent Tyrone Corbin.  He should continue his solid play under Quin Snyder, though the cost is steep should he be relegated to a bench role.

Anderson Varejao is a Cleveland lifer who produces when he stays healthy.  That'll obviously be key to how good/bad this contract ends up being.

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