Saturday, January 23, 2010

Predicting the 2010 NBA Playoffs

Equipped with my ratings and NBA 2K's sim engine, I ran a series of playoff simulations using current NBA standings.

I ran 10 playoff simulations using my roster. Here are the results for each round.


FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers 9-1
Thunder 1-9

Blazers 4-6
Spurs 6-4

Mavericks 5-5
Suns 5-5

Nuggets 7-3
Jazz 3-7


Lakers dominated, but the rest of the series were competitive. Blazers were the only higher seeded team to lose more often (given their depleted lineup, not a surprise).


FIRST ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 8-2
Bulls 2-8

Magic 9-1
Bobcats 1-9

Hawks 8-2
Heat 2-8

Celtics 9-1
Raptors 1-9

There won't be much drama in the eastern conference come April. The top 4 teams are near locks to advance as the competition isn't close.


SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers 9-0
Thunder 0-1
Blazers 0-4
Spurs 1-5

Mavericks 1-4
Suns 1-4
Nuggets 5-2
Jazz 3-0

The Blazers and Spurs have no chance against the Lakers (Spurs' one win coming to the Thunder).

Interestingly, each time Utah advanced, they moved onto the conference Finals. The 2/7 bracket winner beat out the 3/6 bracket 8/10 times.

SECOND ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 7-1
Bulls 0-2
Magic 3-6
Bobcats 0-1

Hawks 3-5
Heat 0-2
Celtics 7-2
Raptors 0-1

While not as dominant as LA, Cleveland owned the Magic 6-1 in round 2. They look to be a lock for the Conference Finals, as this season's Magic team is not as good as it's 09 predecessor.

CONFERENCE WEST
Lakers 8-1
Spurs 0-1
Mavericks 0-1
Suns 0-1
Nuggets 2-3
Jazz 0-3

Lakers dominated the field, as the Nuggets were the only team able to beat them.

CONFREENCE EAST
Cavaliers 7-0
Magic 1-2
Hawks 0-3
Celtics 2-5

The Cavs could not be stopped whenever they made it this far. That's probably how it will work out in real life too.


FINALS
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-3)
Lakers over Magic (4-3)
Lakers over Celtics (4-3)
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-2)
Cavaliers over Lakers (4-3)
Cavaliers over Lakers (4-3)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-2)
Lakers over Cavaliers (4-1)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-2)
Celtics over Lakers (4-2)

Lakers were 5-3 in the Finals
Cavaliers were 4-3 in the Finals
Celtics were 1-1
Nuggets were 0-2
Magic were 0-1

Lakers were 3-2 against the Cavaliers, 1-1 against the Celtics, 1-0 against the Magic
Cavaliers were 2-3 against the Lakers, 2-0 agsinst the Nuggets

According to my simulations, it's going to be Kobe and the Lakers against LeBron and the Cavaliers come June! The Lakers have the edge here, but in the regular season they were just swept by the Cavaliers (of course, Utah did this to Chicago and it didn't exactly help). Either way, we should be in store for a very memorable NBA Finals.


But wait, there's more!

Here are the results I got running 10 simulations with 2K's roster.

FIRST ROUND WEST
Lakers 3-7
Thunder 7-3


Blazers 3-7
Spurs 7-3

Mavericks 7-3
Suns 3-7

Nuggets 4-6
Jazz 6-4


The Lakers got owned by the 8th seed Thunder. The Nuggets got owned by the 7th seed Jazz. This is as bad as a start can get for 2K.


FIRST ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 9-1
Bulls 1-9

Magic 9-1
Bobcats 1-9

Hawks 6-4
Heat 4-6

Celtics 6-4
Raptors 4-6

The Cavs and Magic still dominated their matchup, but Hawks/Heat and Celtics/Raptors were much closer than they were in my simulations.


SECOND ROUND WEST
Lakers 2-1
Thunder 3-4
Blazers 2-2
Spurs 3-3

Mavericks 4-3
Suns 2-1
Nuggets 2-2
Jazz 3-3

That's right, the Lakers got through the 2nd round 2/10 times using 2K's rosters.

SECOND ROUND EAST
Cavaliers 8-1
Bulls 0-1
Magic 2-7
Bobcats 0-1
Hawks 5-1
Heat 2-2
Celtics 2-4
Raptors 1-3

The Cavs were just as was dominant as my roster, but the Hawks put the wrecking ball on the Celtics in 2K's roster.

CONFERENCE WEST
Lakers 2-0
Thunder 2-1
Blazers 0-1
Spurs 2-2
Mavericks 1-3
Suns 1-1
Nuggets 1-1
Jazz 1-1

There were 7 different NBA Finalists using 2K's roster. Apparently they don't think the Lakers will run away with it come playoff time.

CONFERENCE EAST
Cavaliers 6-2
Magic 0-2
Hawks 2-3
Heat 1-1
Celtics 0-2
Raptors 1-0

The Cavs actually lost to the Raptors and Heat in the Conference Finals. They still went more often than any other team, but I do think it's funny that the Heat and Raptors made it while the Magic and Celtics never did.

FINALS
Suns over Cavaliers (4-3)
Mavericks over Cavaliers (4-1)
Hawks over Jazz (4-2)
Cavaliers over Nuggets (4-0)
Lakers over Raptors (4-0)
Spurs over Cavaliers (4-2)
Cavaliers over Thunder (4-3)
Cavaliers over Spurs (4-1)
Thunder over Heat (4-3)
Lakers over Hawks (4-3)

Cavaliers were 3-3 in the NBA Finals and never once faced the Lakers.
Lakers were 2-0 in the NBA Finals (yet they were apparently no match for the Thunder)
Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, Thunder, and Hawks all won championships. Celtics, Magic, and Nuggets never even made it to the Finals using 2K's roster.

The differences between my roster and 2K's could not be any bigger. The only thing that would have made it worse for 2K is if the Bulls smacked the Cavs up.

7 comments:

Leroy said...

Will I need to turn off all those settings like team chemistry, progressive fatigue and so on to get accurate result?

Rashidi said...

Go to "Game Modes" and select "Playoffs".

Chemistry, player roles, and Fatigue are not part of this mode.

Accurate association sims with 2K are practically impossible. You can get the players to produce accurate sim stats, but it won't be reflected in W/L columns.

Anonymous said...

Can u post devin brown ratings on here?

Anonymous said...

I havent DLed the latest patch b/c of the bigs taking 3s in assoc. mode
Have u DLed the latest patch? if so what are your thoughts about it?

Also I think Josh Smith's rebounding is a tad high & his passer rating is a bit low. He's averaging close to 4 a game.

Goran Dragic has been on a tear as of late, i think he's definitely up for a ratings boost

Anonymous said...

I don't know... Derrick Rose shit on Goran Dragic...

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Derrick Rose... Rashidi, I feel he needs a big boost, at least in his mid ranged jumper and close shot.

Anonymous said...

great blog you have a total of 6 responses. that is too funny. how did you even convince them to allow you and your ignorance about sports on here. oh its me pal. come check out my new article and watch my responses grow. 6 are you kidding me. and you have 1. lol