Monday, December 15, 2014

NBA 2K15 Shooting Guard Ratings (12/15/14)

Shooting guard is the most difficult position to statistically evaluate, as a metric like PER is not exactly an accurate measurement stick.  PER factors a player's Usage rate, which causes a great degree of variance.

"Shooting Guard" used to be called "Off-Guard", as in the guard who played off the ball. Michael Jordan changed all that, paving the way for ball-dominant big guards like Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Brandon Roy (gone but not forgotten), and James Harden.

Studies and have shown that teams play better with only one primary ball-handler, which is why Derek Fisher spent his career next to Kobe and why Hall of Famer Gary Payton was such a dud next to him.  Mario Chalmers has been glued to Wade his entire career, and Patrick Beverley is clearly a better compliment to Harden than a scoring PG like Jeremy Lin (which is likewise why Ronnie Price is starting next to Kobe).

The NBA is a point guard league right now, which means the stats of all SG consequently suffer.  Many starting SG are effectively defense/shooting specialists, as their shot creation ability may not be highly valued.  This is why so many quality SG become sixth men (Manu Ginobili, Jamal Crawford), where their scoring tools are better utilized (they come in when other high-usage players hit the bench).  However even those players are getting squeezed out by teams who recognize the value in running dual-PG lineups.  Reggie Jackson may very well take the court in crunch time next to Russell Westbrook, despite OKC having three capable SG.

Therefore, it takes greater knowledge of the players and their teams to understand whether that player is over or under performing.  Merely looking at stats isn't quite the end-all-be-all.  A SG could change teams and suddenly find themselves in a much different role.  This list isn't nearly as straightforward as the point guard list.  I tried to limit my usage of the "Blue Hammer", but there is simply an abundance of SG who are playing poorly.

SHOOTING GUARD (76)
1-10
89 (+1) James Harden (25.3 PER, 58 TS%, 32 USG%, 35 AST%)
89 (NC) Kobe Bryant (19.3 PER, 49 TS%, 36 USG%, 25 AST%)
87 (+1) Dwyane Wade (22.9 PER, 56 TS%, 34 USG%, 38 AST%)
85 (+3) Klay Thompson (20.1 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 17 AST%)
85 (NC) DeMar DeRozan (16.8 PER, 49 TS%, 29 USG%, 13 AST%)
84 (+4) Jimmy Butler (21.0 PER, 60 TS%, 22 USG%, 14 AST%)
83 (+1) Monta Ellis (19.2 PER, 53 TS%, 29 USG%, 22 AST%)
83 (NC) Manu Ginobili (16.8 PER, 54 TS%, 25 USG%, 30 AST%)
83 (+1) Joe Johnson (15.9 PER, 54 TS%, 22 USG%, 19 AST%)
81 (+2) Kevin Martin (21.3 PER, 65 TS%, 25 USG%, 12 AST%)

I've been lobbying for 2K to drop Kobe's ratings for over 10 years now.  He is clearly not the player he used to be, and I'm not sure I would even consider him top 5 (he's certainly not top 3) yet he is tied for the top SG rating and tied for 6th best in the NBA.  Even the most rabid Kobe supporter has to relent at some point.  For what it's worth I had Kobe at 83 OVR entering the year, which is appropriate, because the guy is a glorified Monta Ellis at this point (a chucker who'll win fantasy basketball championships but coaches/statisticians/fans know he's no star).

Harden has emerged as the best SG in the league.  For all the talk about how bad his defense is, he's played the 2nd most minutes on the #2 defense in the league.

Wade is reminding everyone that a bad series against the Spurs defense doesn't mean his career is over.

DeRozan has shot the ball poorly (back down to 25 3PT%, but also only 40% from 2PT) and Kyle Lowry has done most of the heavy lifting for Toronto.  DeRozan might have been awarded All-Star status by the coaches last season but you'd better believe in hindsight that they'd all give it to Lowry without blinking.

Jimmy Buckets has been playing out of his mind considering he's a defensive specialist playing next to ball-dominant Derrick Rose.  Players who average 20 PPG by virtue of their efficiency rather than their volume of shots are an extremely rare breed.

Joe Johnson and Kevin Martin are on two different playing fields as scorers.  When Martin is healthy, he's electric.  When Johnson is healthy, he's erratic.

11-20
81 (NC) Bradley Beal (14.1 PER, 55 TS%, 23 USG%, 16 AST%)
81 (-3) Lance Stephenson (10.5 PER, 43 TS%, 20 USG%, 24 AST%)
80 (NC) Jamal Crawford (19.5 PER, 58 TS%, 27 USG%, 19 AST%)
80 (+2) Kyle Korver (17.3 PER, 75 TS%, 14 USG%, 15 AST%)
79 (+2) Louis Williams (20.6 PER, 58 TS%, 28 USG%, 10 AST%)
79 (+1) Wesley Matthews (16.2 PER, 61 TS%, 20 USG%, 11 AST%)
78 (+2) Courtney Lee (16.2 PER, 67 TS%, 15 USG%, 11 AST%)
78 (NC) Nick Young (16.1 PER, 55 TS%, 25 USG%, 4 AST%)
78 (NC) Victor Oladipo (15.9 PER, 56 TS%, 24 USG%, 20 AST%)
78 (+1) O.J. Mayo (13.0 PER, 51 TS%, 23 USG%, 21 AST%)

Beal has been anointed a future star but he's still got a long way to go.  He just isn't a multi-faceted player - his production isn't dissimilar from young O.J. Mayo (look how that turned out).

Ditto for Lance Stephenson, who has been pushed as a future star.  Despite his versatility, it's his ugly shooting that has Charlotte collecting losses once again.

Crawford and Lou Williams are the best microwave scorers in the league.  There is a stark difference between them and the likes of O.J. Mayo (who isn't even on the same level as Nick Young).

21-30
78 (+1) Iman Shumpert (12.3 PER, 48 TS%, 21 USG%, 21 AST%)
77 (-1) Danny Green (16.0 PER, 61 TS%, 17 USG%, 9 AST%)
77 (NC) J.J. Redick (14.7 PER, 62 TS%, 20 USG%, 9 AST%)
77 (-1) Arron Afflalo (13.6 PER, 57 TS%, 20 USG%, 8 AST%)
77 (+1) Alec Burks (13.1 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 15 AST%)
77 (-1) Avery Bradley (10.2 PER, 51 TS%, 20 USG%, 5 AST%)
77 (-2) Eric Gordon (8.6 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 16 AST%)
76 (NC) Marcus Thornton (15.3 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 8 AST%)
76 (+1) Marco Belinelli (15.1 PER, 58 TS%, 20 USG%, 12 AST%)

Danny Green has improved every season and his production is rising just as the Big 3 are starting to decline. As a premier 3-N-D player,  he should be rated on the same plane as Wesley Matthews (79) and Courtney Lee (78).  I honestly wouldn't mind if the lot of these guys were rated 80 OVR, they're in the top half of starting SG thanks to their efficient shooting and quality defense.

The book is in on Iman Shumpert.  He is a bad offensive player (and injury prone, to boot).

Eric Gordon might be the worst value in the NBA, as minimum salary players could outperform this max contract player.  The Pelicans desperately need a shooting specialist because the touches simply aren't there for the ball-dominant guard (good thing they let Anthony Morrow walk, eh?).  Gordon could regain his value on the right team but as it stands he is a detriment when compared next to the likes of Marcus Thornton and Marco Belinelli.

31-40
76 (+1) Rodney Stuckey (15.0 PER, 50 TS%, 26 USG%, 20 AST%)
76 (+1) Gary Neal (14.8 PER, 54 TS%, 24 USG%, 11 AST%)
76 (+2) Jerryd Bayless (11.8 PER, 57 TS%, 17 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (-2) Dion Waiters (10.7 PER, 47 TS%, 23 USG%, 15 AST%)
75 (-2) Tim Hardaway Jr (13.8 PER, 52 TS%, 25 USG%, 12 AST%)
75 (+3) Evan Fournier (13.0 PER, 56 TS%, 21 USG%, 12 AST%)
75 (-3) J.R. Smith (11.6 PER, 49 TS%, 23 USG%, 22 AST%)
75 (+1) Thabo Sefolosha (9.4 PER, 40 TS%, 15 USG%, 10 AST%)
75 (-2) Vince Carter (8.3 PER, 42 TS%, 22 USG%, 13 AST%)
75 (+1) Mike Miller (2.2 PER, 41 TS%, 8 USG%, 3 AST%)

Dion Waiters isn't just the Michael Beasley of SGs, he is a bad player to boot. With so many better scoring options around him and such a poor outside touch, the odds of him becoming a key contributor for the Cavaliers are slim.

It goes without saying that Sefolosha, Carter, and Miller are all shooting the ball especially poorly for their new teams.

Bayless' rating drops an appropriate degree if his position is changed to PG.

41-50
74 (+5) K.J. McDaniels (12.4 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 9 AST%)
74 (NC) Randy Foye (12.0 PER, 52 TS%, 20 USG%, 17 AST%)
74 (NC) Jason Terry (11.2 PER, 56 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
74 (+2) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (9.7 PER, 49 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
73 (NC) Jeremy Lamb (16.2 PER, 56 TS%, 20 USG%, 13 AST%)
73 (NC) Anthony Morrow (12.9 PER, 54 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
73 (-1) Jared Dudley (10.5 PER, 54 TS%, 12 USG%, 11 AST%)
73 (+1) Austin Rivers (10.4 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 16 AST%)
73 (-1) Ben McLemore (10.3 PER, 59 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
73 (+1) Tony Snell (6.9 PER, 56 TS%, 11 USG%, 3 AST%)

KCP is the shooting specialist who can't.  Lamb is quietly having a productive season.  Snell is low-usage specialist, just not a very good one.

Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon have identical TS, USG, and AST rates which tells you how far the latter has fallen.

51-76
73 (NC) C.J. Miles (6.5 PER, 42 TS%, 25 USG%, 11 AST%)
72 (NC) Ben Gordon (13.0 PER, 57 TS%, 22 USG%, 12 AST%)
72 (NC) C.J. McCollum (11.2 PER, 55 TS%, 18 USG%, 12 AST%)
72 (+4) Garrett Temple (10.5 PER, 50 TS%, 14 USG%, 11 AST%)
72 (+4) Andre Roberson (9.5 PER, 47 TS%, 10 USG%, 9 AST%)
72 (-2) Nik Stauskas (5.3 PER, 43 TS%, 14 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (+1) Willie Green (3.4 PER, 36 TS%, 17 USG%, 8 AST%)
71 (NC) P.J. Hairston (9.1 PER, 45 TS%, 20 USG%, 8 AST%)
71 (NC) Gary Harris (3.3 PER, 33 TS%, 19 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (NC) Alexey Shved (19.5 PER, 55 TS%, 26 USG%, 33 AST%)
70 (-1) Wayne Ellington (13.7 PER, 55 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
70 (-1) Nick Johnson (4.6 PER, 39 TS%, 16 USG%, 6 AST%)
69 (-1) Will Barton (4.8 PER, 43 TS%, 19 USG%, 11 AST%)
69 (NC) Brandon Rush (-1.9 PER, 21 TS%, 11 USG%, 5 AST%)
68 (+1) Allan Crabbe (10.2 PER, 62 TS%, 11 USG%, 8 AST%)
68 (NC) Joe Harris (4.8 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 10 AST%)

C.J. Miles is having a nightmare season.  Nik Stauskas has been awful.  Willie Green is even worse.  Brandon Rush is in the league out of sympathy at this point.

Ben Gordon is having a mini-comeback.  Alexey Shved is producing for a change (and should really be listed at PG).  Ellington is comfortably filling Jodie Meeks' shoes in LA. Allan Crabbe's shooting should put him a couple notches higher than the numerous SG who haven't put the ball in the hole.

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (19)
75 (+1) Jodie Meeks (DNP)
74 (+1) Martell Webster (DNP)
73 (NC) Jason Richardson (DNP)
71 (NC) E'Twaun Moore (9.8 PER, 35 TS%, 18 USG%, 18 AST%)
70 (-1) Jordan Adams (7.4 PER, 39 TS%, 11 USG%, 16 AST%)
70 (NEW) Zoran Dragic (-19.7 PER, 0 TS%, 22 USG%, 0 AST%)
69 (+1) Markel Brown (4.7 PER, 46 TS%, 24 USG%, 17 AST%)
69 (NC) Glen Rice (-3.7 PER, 31 TS%, 21 USG%, 6 AST%)
69 (NC) Archie Goodwin (10.9 PER, 41 TS%, 24 USG%, 11 AST%)
69 (-2) Troy Daniels (1.1 PER, 41 TS%, 24 USG%, 7 AST%)
68 (NC) James Young (22.4 PER, 65 TS%, 20 USG%, 10 AST%)
68 (NC) John Jenkins (10.6 PER, 52 TS%, 24 USG%, 0 AST%)
68 (-2) Cartier Martin (1.2 PER, 37 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
67 (NC) C.J. Wilcox (37.8 PER, 90 TS%, 21 USG%, 34 AST%)
67 (NC) Ian Clark (11.2 PER, 55 TS%, 15 USG%, 6 AST%)
67 (NC) Ricky Ledo (DNP)
65 (NEW) Patrick Christopher (DNP)
64 (NC) Justin Holiday (-1.0 PER, 35 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
64 (NEW) Andre Dawkins (-1.4 PER, 50 TS%, 15 USG%, 0 AST%)

FREE AGENTS (18)
78 (NC) Ray Allen (DNP)
74 (NC) Jordan Crawford (DNP
71 (NC) James Anderson (DNP)
71 (NC) MarShon Brooks (DNP)
70 (NC) Elliot Williams (DNP)
69 (NEW) Malcolm Lee (-19.6 PER, 0 TS%, 22 USG%, 0 AST%)
69 (NC) Jamaal Franklin (DNP)
69 (NC) Ronnie Brewer (DNP)
69 (NC) Doron Lamb (DNP)
68 (NC) Chris Johnson (5.9 PER, 43 TS%, 17 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NC) Shannon Brown (4.4 PER, 48 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
68 (NC) Carrick Felix (DNP)
68 (NC) Keith Bogans (DNP)
65 (NC) Othyus Jeffers (DNP)
65 (NC) Jason Kapono (DNP)
65 (NC) Dionte Christmas (DNP)
65 (NC) Kim English (DNP)
64 (NC) Vander Blue (DNP)

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