Sunday, December 21, 2014

NBA 2K15 Small Forward Ratings (12/21/14)

*Editor's Note: Accidentally replaced some data with 1/5/15 data.

As with their shooting guard brethren, small forwards can be difficult to evaluate statistically. Some may be ball-dominant scorers while others are defensive/shooting specialists.  At press-time there are only 22 SFs with 15.0 PER or higher, which means this is primarily a position for specialists.  As such, a two-way player is an especially valuable find.

SMALL FORWARD (84)
1-10
97 (-1) LeBron James (24.9 PER, 58 TS%, 31 USG%, 38 AST%)
95 (NC) Kevin Durant (28.3 PER, 65 TS%, 33 USG%, 27 AST%)
89 (NC) Carmelo Anthony (21.5 PER, 54 TS%, 31 USG%, 18 AST%)
86 (+1) Kawhi Leonard (19.3 PER, 54 TS%, 23 USG%, 13 AST%)
84 (+2) Rudy Gay (20.3 PER, 55 TS%, 27 USG%, 24 AST%)
82 (+3) Gordon Hayward (19.9 PER, 58 TS%, 25 USG%, 20 AST%)
81 (+5) Tobias Harris (18.5 PER, 56 TS%, 24 USG%, 10 AST%)
80 (-1) Paul Pierce (16.9 PER, 57 TS%, 21 USG%, 14 AST%)
80 (-2) Andre Iguodala (9.9 PER, 50 TS%, 13 USG%, 13 AST%)
79 (NC) Luol Deng (17.5 PER, 59 TS%, 20 USG%, 10 AST%)

The world's greatest player (LeBron James) continues to struggle (for his standards) and after two months it's probably time for his ratings to dip.  For what it's worth, I made a few attribute adjustments and it put LeBron at 95 Overall.  That seems exceptionally fair given his decline in production and the relative lack of success of his team.

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Carmelo Anthony has seen his scoring efficiency suffer despite taking fewer shots in the triangle. While he might have a sterling reputation as an "elite" scorer, the truth of the matter is that ball-stopping Melo has never been as good offensively as what James Harden, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook are doing right now.

Andre Iguodala isn't even the 2nd best SF on his own team, so it goes without saying that he's not top ten in the NBA.  He's embroiled in the worst shooting season of his career, and it's not particularly close.

Luol Deng is quietly having a solid season in Miami.  In particular, Deng has never shot the ball this well from 3PT (38%) in his career.  His new-found shooting stroke makes him a premium two-way player.

It bears noting that only nine SFs crack 80 OVR (excluding the injured Paul George) while 23 PGs are rated 80 or higher, including the likes of Brandon Jennings and Reggie Jackson.  That ain't right.

POINT GUARDS
90+: Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook
85+: Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose, Mike Conley, Tony Parker, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo
80+: Isaiah Thomas, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Darren Collison, Kemba Walker, Brandon Jennings, Reggie Jackson

SMALL FORWARDS
90+: LeBron James, Kevin Durant
85+: Carmelo Anthony, Kawhi Leonard
80+: Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward, Tobias Harris, Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala

Derrick Rose (87), Deron Williams (85), Rajon Rondo (85) are not having better seasons than players like Deng, Chandler Parsons, Draymond Green.... yet there is a huge gap in their ratings which is not indicative of their true value/ability. Hopefully 2K takes steps to correct this moving forward.

11-20
79 (NC) Chandler Parsons (17.7 PER, 56 TS%, 22 USG%, 11 AST%)
79 (+1) Jeff Green (15.0 PER, 55 TS%, 24 USG%, 8 AST%)
79 (+1) Tyreke Evans (15.7 PER, 48 TS%, 27 USG%, 27 AST%)
79 (+2) Draymond Green (15.3 PER, 56 TS%, 18 USG%, 14 AST%)
79 (-1) Josh Smith (14.2 PER, 42 TS%, 25 USG%, 26 AST%)
79 (+1) Tony Allen (13.4 PER, 50 TS%, 16 USG%, 10 AST%)
79 (+1) Trevor Ariza (11.6 PER, 51 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)
78 (NC) Gerald Green (16.5 PER, 55 TS%, 28 USG%, 10 AST%)
78 (+1) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (15.1 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 8 AST%)
78 (+2) Harrison Barnes (14.7 PER, 63 TS%, 14 USG%, 7 AST%)

Parsons is doing what he can to live up to his contract, which is more than can be said for #9 SF Andre Iguodala.

The basketball community has overwhelmingly accepted that Josh Smith is not a good basketball player, and it's time for 2K to meet with those perceptions.

I don't list Tony Allen as "overrated" because he's known as an elite defensive talent (and again, compare his numbers to Iguodala).  However, I would place that upon Trevor Ariza as he's gone from an elite marksman (41 3pt%) in Washington to below average (34 3pt%) in Houston.

Gerald Green has the fourth highest usage rate among SFs after the holy trinity of Durant/LeBron/Melo.  It's easy to peg him as a highlight reel sideshow without realizing how good of a scorer he is.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's usage is up with Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson sidelined by injuries.  That's probably not great for his shooting percentages but at least he still hasn't taken a three this year.


21-30
78 (NC) Wilson Chandler (13.3 PER, 54 TS%, 21 USG%, 7 AST%)
78 (-1) Nicolas Batum (12.3 PER, 46 TS%, 15 USG%, 21 AST%)
77 (+3) Giannis Antetokounmpo (15.8 PER, 56 TS%, 20 USG%, 13 AST%)
76 (-2) Jabari Parker (14.6 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 10 AST%)
76 (+1) DeMarre Carroll (13.4 PER, 56 TS%, 16 USG%, 7 AST%)
76 (+1) Corey Brewer (13.6 PER, 48 TS%, 20 USG%, 18 AST%)
76 (NC) Terrence Ross (13.3 PER, 56 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
76 (-1) Danilo Gallinari (13.3 PER, 53 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)
76 (+1) Marcus Morris (12.8 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 10 AST%)
76 (NC) P.J. Tucker (12.3 PER, 58 TS%, 12 USG%, 9 AST%)

Batum is shooting the ball far worse (23 3PT%) than he ever has in his career (36 3PT%).  Portland will need him to get his aim straightened out if they hope to go deep in the playoffs.

31-40
76 (-2) Gerald Henderson (11.4 PER, 52 TS%, 17 USG%, 13 AST%)
76 (-1) Shawn Marion (10.9 PER, 50 TS%, 13 USG%, 7 AST%)
76 (NC) Matt Barnes (10.4 PER, 59 TS%, 14 USG%, 6 AST%)
75 (+8) Shabazz Muhammad (22.4 PER, 57 TS%, 26 USG%, 9 AST%)
75 (NC) Khris Middleton (13.3 PER, 54 TS%, 19 USG%, 10 AST%)
75 (-1) Evan Turner (12.6 PER, 54 TS%, 20 USG%, 23 AST%)
75 (+1) Mike Dunleavey (11.7 PER, 59 TS%, 13 USG%, 9 AST%)
75 (NC) Tayshaun Prince (10.4 PER, 48 TS%, 15 USG%, 8 AST%)
75 (-1) Andrew Wiggins (9.3 PER, 46 TS%, 22 USG%, 7 AST%)
75 (-1) Caron Butler (8.4 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 5 AST%)

The Mavericks were okay letting Shawn Marion walk away this off-season and thus far it's tough to blame them.  While Marion's rebounding is down due to playing shooting guard, his 2PT% continues to drop which is not all that surprising considering the one-time athletic freak is now 36.

Shabazz Muhammad is embracing the touches he's getting as the sixth man of a bad Wolves team.  One can't just point to his team's poor record as a reason for his stats because Michael Carter-Williams and others haven't been anywhere near as efficient.  With the 3rd highest PER at the position (behind Durant and LeBron) it goes without saying it's safe to rate Shabazz a wee-bit higher.

Case in point, Andrew Wiggins plays for the Wolves and does not look like a #1 pick right now.  This is somewhat expected given his scouting report heading into the draft.   He's not a go-to player yet and his athletic abilities would shine in a diminished role... rather than a team experimenting with Zach LaVine at point guard.

41-50
74 (+4) James Johnson (17.2 PER, 60 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
74 (NC) Aaron Gordon (15.5 PER, 65 TS%, 17 USG%, 7 AST%)
74 (NC) Al-Farouq Aminu (13.2 PER, 52 TS%, 16 USG%, 5 AST%)
74 (X) Shawne Williams (12.5 PER, 60 TS%, 14 USG%, 7 AST%)
74 (+1) Wesley Johnson (11.2 PER, 54 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
74 (NC) Kyle Singler (10.5 PER, 57 TS%, 14 USG%, 6 AST%)
74 (NC) Bojan Bogdanovic (9.1 PER, 52 TS%, 16 USG%, 5 AST%)
74 (NC) Maurice Harkless (8.3 PER, 51 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
73 (+7) Solomon Hill (11.0 PER, 49 TS%, 18 USG%, 11 AST%)
73 (+2) Chris Copeland (8.2 PER, 49 TS%, 22 USG%, 9 AST%)

James Johnson has proven that his 2014 season (18.5 PER) was no fluke.  He's one of the top backups in the league due to his extreme versatility.  Bogdanovic is basically "just there" on a bad Nets team.  Harkless has not improved since entering the league.  While still only 21 years old, the clock is ticking.  Shawne Williams should be listed at PF, the position he's played since 2010-11.

51-60
73 (+4) Perry Jones (7.9 PER, 51 TS%, 18 USG%, 5 AST%)
73 (NC) John Salmons (5.7 PER, 41 TS%, 10 USG%, 7 AST%)
73 (-2) Doug McDermott (4.1 PER, 49 TS%, 16 USG%, 2 AST%)
72 (X) Rasual Butler (18.3 PER, 67 TS%, 18 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (NC) Omri Casspi (16.7 PER, 64 TS%, 18 USG%, 13 AST%)
72 (NC) Jae Crowder (13.5 PER, 54 TS%, 16 USG%, 7 AST%)
72 (+2) James Ennis (13.0 PER, 54 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
72 (+4) Otto Porter (12.5 PER, 55 TS%, 14 USG%, 7 AST%)
72 (+1) Derrick Williams (12.4 PER, 53 TS%, 21 USG%, 4 AST%)
72 (NC) Richard Jefferson (10.8 PER, 53 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)

Rasual Butler is comeback player of the year.  Shooting 53% from 3PT range probably means he should be rated higher than a dreg like John Salmons or a struggling rookie who can't defend like Doug McDermott.

Omri Casspi is having a solid season but unlike Butler it's not due to his shooting stroke.  After operating as a stretch-four for Houston last season, Casspi has completely abandoned his outside shot (2-14 3PT) and is instead shooting 60% from 2PT range.  Even crazier, Casspi has abandoned his mid-range shot as well (1-3 FG from 10-23 feet).  Casspi is only attacking the rim and in the process has doubled his FT rate (where hs is shooting 85%).  In my 20 years of watching the NBA I don't think I've ever seen a player who completely made over their game in the course of six months.

61-70
72 (NC) T.J. Warren (10.8 PER, 53 TS%, 19 USG%, 5 AST%)
72 (-2) Luc Mbah a Moute (11.0 PER, 48 TS%, 18 USG%, 9 AST%)
72 (-4) Danny Granger (10.3 PER, 56 TS%, 17 USG%, 4 AST%)
72 (NEW) Kostas Papanikolaou (9.8 PER, 46 TS%, 15 USG%, 20 AST%)
72 (+5) Kyle Anderson (8.7 PER, 40 TS%, 13 USG%, 9 AST%)
72 (+1) Alan Anderson (7.7 PER, 52 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
71 (+2) Robert Covington (15.0 PER, 58 TS%, 20 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (+1) James Jones (14.0 PER, 58 TS%, 16 USG%, 10 AST%)
70 (+1) Alonzo Gee (13.8 PER, 52 TS%, 19 USG%, 7 AST%)
70 (+1) Reggie Bullock (9.5 PER, 61 TS%, 10 USG%, 4 AST%)

Danny Granger's PER went up six points in two weeks.  After Christmas he had a three-game stretch averaging 17.7 PPG on 69% shooting (63 3PT%), in 29 MPG off the bench.  That's about as good as it's going to get for the former all-star.  He followed that up with 2-13 shooting over his next two games.  At least he's rotation-worthy now.

71-84
70 (NC) Chase Budinger (9.1 PER, 46 TS%, 18 USG%, 6 AST%)
70 (-1) Hollis Thompson (8.3 PER, 50 TS%, 13 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (-4) Kent Bazemore (7.6 PER, 45 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
70 (-1) Rodney Hood (7.2 PER, 46 TS%, 17 USG%, 8 AST%)
70 (+2) Quincy Pondexter (6.9 PER, 44 TS%, 14 USG%, 8 AST%)
69 (NC) Landry Fields (12.9 PER, 64 TS%, 11 USG%, 10 AST%)
69 (NEW) Damjan Rudez (6.3 PER, 53 TS%, 13 USG%, 7 AST%)
69 (+1) Jerami Grant (6.4 PER, 35 TS%, 15 USG%, 4 AST%)
68 (NC) Robbie Hummel (9.4 PER, 51 TS%, 12 USG%, 6 AST%)
68 (+2) Luke Babbitt (8.3 PER, 64 TS%, 11 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NEW) Joe Ingles (8.2 PER, 49 TS%, 10 USG%, 15 AST%)
67 (NC) Austin Daye (4.5 PER, 40 TS%, 23 USG%, 6 AST%)
66 (NC) Sergey Karasev (11.4 PER, 55 TS%, 15 USG%, 9 AST%)
64 (NEW) Jakarr Sampson (6.3 PER, 47 TS%, 16 USG%, 9 AST%)

Landry Fields sighting in his contract year.  Ruh roh.

Karasev is outplaying Bogdanovic which summarizes the Nets season.

LESS THAN 100 MINUTES (15)
89 (NC) Paul George (DNP)
73 (+1) Steve Novak (11.9 PER, 64 TS%, 17 USG%, 6 AST%)
72 (NC) Jeff Taylor (0.0 PER, 0 TS%, 0 USG%, 0 AST%)
71 (-1) Dorell Wright (9.9 PER, 51 TS%, 16 USG%, 7 AST%)
71 (+1) Cleanthony Early (9.3 PER, 47 TS%, 19 USG%, 12 AST%)
70 (-3) Xavier Henry (4.9 PER, 42 TS%, 14 USG%, 5 AST%)
70 (NC) Chris Douglas-Roberts (2.8 PER, 39 TS%, 12 USG%, 3 AST%)
69 (-5) Gerald Wallace (4.1 PER, 40 TS%, 6 USG%, 3 AST%)
69 (NEW) Damien Inglis (DNP)
68 (NEW) Glenn Robinson III (10.3 PER, 48 TS%, 16 USG%, 3 AST%)
68 (NEW) Devyn Marble (10.2 PER, 41 TS%, 45 USG%, 0 AST%)
68 (NC) Tony Mitchell (DNP)
67 (NC) Luigi Datome (11.9 PER, 44 TS%, 33 USG%, 18 AST%)
66 (NC) Victor Claver (DNP)
64 (NC) Bruno Caboclo (17.8 PER, 67 TS%, 24 USG%, 0 AST%)

FREE AGENTS (17)
72 (NC) Michael Beasley (DNP)
71 (+2) Darius Miller (-5.0 PER, 14 TS%, 8 USG%, 6 AST%)
70 (NC) Jordan Hamilton (DNP)
70 (NC) Carlos Delfino (DNP)
69 (NC) Francisco Garcia (3.8 PER, 35 TS%, 16 USG%, 12 AST%)
69 (+1) Quincy Miller (+8) DEN
69 (NC) Travis Outlaw (DNP)
67 (NC) Damion James (DNP)
66 (NC) Reggie Williams (DNP)
66 (NC) Dahntay Jones (DNP)
64 (NC) Tornike Shengelia (DNP)
64 (NC) Lazar Hayward (DNP)
64 (NC) Rodney Carney (DNP)
63 (NEW) Shane Edwards (DNP)
63 (NC) Darington Hobson (DNP)
62 (NC) Sasha Pavlovic (DNP)
60 (NC) James Nunnally (DNP)

1 comment:

Stephen Scott-Edwards said...

Hey Rashdi 97 ovr might still be too high for Lebron. His shooting should go down,rebounds should go down and he should take a fall in just about every defensive category. I'd say he should be a 95. Maybe even a 94. He looks no better than Durant. But Dwyane Wade probably deserves to be bumbed back up to a 90. He has had a kind of a vintage Wade type season. Don't go overboard with but he definitely deserves to be rated higher than the high 80s range.