Monday, September 28, 2009

2K10 Ratings Analysis: Is Rajon Rondo overrated?

One of the highly disputed ratings in 2K10 is Rajon Rondo's.

Rondo ranks a lofty 3rd among all PGs, and ranks second on a team with three all-stars not named Rajon Rondo (KG, Pierce, Allen if you've been living under a rock).
Your 2009 All-NBA PGs were Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and Chauncey Billups.
Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams were both named all-stars ahead of Rajon Rondo yet they are rated 79 and 77 respectively.

How does Rondo compare against his peers? Not well.

40+ point games
Harris: 3 (47, 42, 41)
Parker: 2 (55, 42)
Paul: 2 (43, 42)
Williams: 0
Billups: 0
Rondo: 0

30+ point games
Paul: 15
Parker: 13
Harris: 12
Williams: 9
Billups: 3
Rondo: 2 (32, 31)

Games w/ single digit scoring
Rondo: 36
Billups: 8
Parker: 6
Williams: 6
Harris: 4
Paul: 2 (9 pts each)

Games w/ 5 points or less
Rondo: 12
Billups: 5
Harris: 2
Parker: 1 (4 pts in 10 mins vs MIA)
Williams: 1
Paul: 0

Scoring is not everything for a point guard (obviously) but this disparity is just too overwhelming to ignore. Rondo failed to score in double figures in 36 games while the top 5 non-Rondo PGs had only 26 COMBINED.

Rondo had a huge statistical explosion in the playoffs due to the following factors:
1. No Kevin Garnett = padded rebound totals
2. 19 year old rookie Derrick Rose was one of the worst defensive PGs in the league.
3. Triple OT games padding stats.

Rondo was 39-104 from the field against Orlando, but this poor performance is ignored in favor of a Chicago series where he was averaging 45 minutes per contest.

I would have to say Rondo is AT LEAST 5 points overrated, which is pretty significant. That's the difference between being the 11th best player in the game to the 30th.


Whoman said...

warning : Long comment coming...

First off a big thanks for years of great work you´ve put in to help the community out with your roster updates, i myself am still playing 2K9 with one of your later updates.

Now off we go :
So that is a valid argument if you look at his scoring and shooting related ratings. Is that too high ? If it isn´t : It makes no sense to lower attributes where he´s great among PGs (anything but shooting, really)

Yes, the OVRL should reflect the quality of the player but it also simply is a formula that is the sum of all parts.

So lowering ratings for the sake of lowering the OVRL rating imo is not the way to go about sports game ratings anymore now that siganture play and tendencies are onvolved, especially with clear cut starters (where there´s no position battle inside the team and a lower OVRL rating would ensure that the better player IRL would start)

In a video game setting one player might have more weak spots than another (and thus a low OVRL rating) yet still produce better and be harder to play against than a player with a higher OVRL.

That is what i love about games with no overall rating, like Football Manager (si games) where the AI is smart enough to pick players based on individual attributes rather than an overall rating.

And judging off 2K9 : Rondo played like Rondo and averaged expectable stats even with a high OVRL rating (later in his career in my association) because of his limitations and in spite of a high Ovrl rating.



Anonymous said...

I think you forgot that the point guards job is to distribute the ball and set up th eoffense. Rondo makes great passes as well as driving to the lane and getting rebounds. He also is one of the better defensive point guards in the league. Scoring isn't everything, and with all is other attributes I think thats why he is rated so high.

Pete said...

Since when does scoring determine the leagues best point guards?

When Jason Kidd and John Stockton were at the peaks of their careers, how many 40+ point games did they have?

Rondo's stats will be high because he's outside of his jumpshot and free throw shooting, he's an incredibly complete player.

Against Chicago in 45mpg he averaged 9.3rpg, 11.6apg, 19.4ppg and 2.7spg. Along with all of those numbers he also averaged only 2.1 turnovers per game - pretty impressive considering his inexperience, the extreme minutes he was playing, and the extra pressure that was put on his shoulders. When was the last time you saw a player average 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 19 points and only 2 assists in any 7 game playoff series?

Now, you say that he only averaged those figures becuase of KG's absense, extra minutes, and DR's poor defence in Chicago. If so, then explain how he then went on to average 10reb, 8ass, 14pts and 2.3st against Orlando over another 7 games? This was against one of the top defensive teams in the league, and his minutes were down to a much more 'normal' 37mpg - no more then what any star PG would play in a key playoff series.

In the end, he averaged 17pts, 9.7reb, 9.8ass and 2.5stl and 2.7to per game - over a 14 game spread. I can't even recall the last time any active NBA player averaged better 'all round' numbers then that over 14 consecutive playoff games.

Then you say he only scored more and got the boards because KG was out - how about Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce, Big Baby? All solid rebounders, and yet Rondo ranked second on the Celtics in rebounds over those 14 games (beaten only by Perkins at 11.6rpg).

He didn't score anywhere near as much during the regular season, but that's because he didn't need to - not because he wasn't able to. Even during the regular season when he was their 4th or 5th option on offence he still put up very solid numbers - 12 points (on 50% shooting), 5.2reb, 8.2assists and 1.9 steals. All round, those numbers (when you combine offense, defence, and efficiency) boost him right up in the top 3-5 PG's in the league. Jameer Nelson and Mo Williams beat him to All-Star selections, but take away the pure scoring and their numbers are nowhere near Rondo's.

Add all of that to the fact that last year was only his second season in the league - it's all but guaranteed that he's going to further develop and improve (esspecially on offence) in the upcoming season.

It's really not that far fetched. Check out Chirs Paul's numbers, Check out Deron Willilam's numbers, then check out Rondo's numbers - aside from scoring, they're right up there. If Rondo picks up a more consistent/confident jump shot this season, he could be amount the top 2 pg's in the league, with his numbers held back only by the fact that he's playing behind 3 future hall of famers.

nogster said...

hey rashidi.

are you going to do 2kshare ratings [360] this season.
i hope so as i dont really have time anymore and i know that at least i can trust yours.

Anonymous said...

What I don't understand is how Rose's rating can go DOWN after one year of being in the league WINNING rookie of the year and improving his defense and perimeter shot during the off-season (which has showed this year). Also, I don't necessarily mind so many players in the 70s, as this mimics Madden ratings, but the top at each position should be all at least over 95.