Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Player Efficiency Ratings [12-09-09]

I decided to check John Hollinger's PER (Player Efficiency Rankings) for each position to see how my NBA 2K10 ratings stack up. If you aren't familiar with PER, here is NBA 2K10's descrption...

Player Efficiency Rating - This stat takes a look at a player's full stat line, much like the Efficiency stat. The main difference being that PER adjusts for the pace of the player's team along with the average league pace. The average for PER is always 15.00.'s description - PER is a rating developed by columnist John Hollinger. In John's words, "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance."

If you REALLY want to know how PER is calculated, click here

PER is not an indicator of who the best player is. It doesn't evaluate defense well. It favors big men over guards. What it does do well is help us determine who the most efficient players in the league are, and that goes a long way towards determining who the best are.

All-Time PER League Leaders
8 times: Wilt Chamberlain
7 times: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5 times: Shaquille O'Neal
4 times: Bob Petit
2 times: LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Larry Bird, Jerry West, Moses Malone
1 times: Karl Malone, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, Julius Erving (led ABA 4x), Neil Johnston, Elgin Baylor

Seasons with 30+ PER
4 times: Michael Jordan
3 times: Shaquille O'Neal, Wilt Chamberlain
1 times: LeBron James (currently sits at 29.9 for the season), Chris Paul (31.8 this season after posting 30.0 last year), Dwyane Wade (last year), Tracy McGrady, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, David Robinson (was going for a 2nd in 96 but missed 76 games).

A 30 PER is significant because if the league average is 15.00, a 30 means the player was literally twice as effective as the average NBA player.

There have only been 9 players in league history to post a 30 PER. The feat has only been accomplished 16 times in NBA history, and 10 of those belong to the three most dominant offensive forces ever. The fact that three players did it last season and two of them are going for it again means it is a truly special time in the NBA. We had never seen two players do it in a season before and we were treated to three last season.

Let's get on to the current season standings, seperated by player position, followed up with my 2K10 rating, (and a little ditty if I see fit).

31.8 Chris Paul (95) - Would lead league if qualified.
22.9 Steve Nash (81) - Remember what I said about PER ignoring defense?
21.1 Louis Williams (71) - We'll see what happens once he starts playing with Iverson.
19.8 Rajon Rondo (85)
19.8 Chauncey Billups (82)
19.2 Tony Parker (84)
19.1 Tyreke Evans (75) - Will go down to the wire for ROY with Jennings.
19.0 Deron Williams (89) - Had 21.1 last year.
18.5 Baron Davis (82)
17.4 Brandon Jennings (80) - Two rookies in the top 10 spells a bright future for the league.

26.2 Kobe Bryant (95) - Has never posted a 30 PER season. Bron/Wade/CP3 did last year.
25.6 Kevin Martin (78) - Interesting to see if he continues when he returns from injury.
25.3 Dwyane Wade (96) - Not having the monster year he did last season.
19.4 Brandon Roy (87) - Ditto.
19.4 Manu Ginobili (82) - Injuries finally taking their toll on his play.
19.0 Andre Iguodala (83)
18.5 Jason Richardson (73) - Too bad he doesn't defend.
18.2 Joe Johnson (85)
18.2 Vince Carter (80)
18.2 Ben Gordon (78)

29.9 LeBron James (97) - Current league leader.
25.4 Carmelo Anthony (90)
24.3 Kevin Durant (85)
19.7 Danny Granger (84)
19.3 Paul Pierce (83)
18.3 Corey Maggette (75) - Poor defense, you know the story by now.
17.9 Rudy Gay (78) - I hope this guy doesn't command the max as a free agent.
17.9 Luol Deng (75)
16.9 Andrei Kirilenko (71)
16.9 Danilo Gallinari (66) - I'm as shocked as you are folks.

27.4 Chris Bosh (87)
25.9 Pau Gasol (83)
25.7 Dirk Nowitzki (84)
23.9 Josh Smith (83) - Improved ability finishing at the rim the core reason for improvement.
23.9 Carl Landry (75) - Team leader by far, next is 17.9 Scola.
23.3 Carlos Boozer (82)
21.0 Kevin Garnett (85)
20.8 Zach Randolph (75) - As noted with Nash, defense not included.
19.5 Antawn Jamison (76) - See above.
19.3 Al Harrington (75)
19.3 Marcus Camby (75)

27.9 Tim Duncan (90) - That'd be his career high. Why do people think he's declining?
25.1 Dwight Howard (90) - Just imagine if he could hit a FT, pass the ball, hit a jumper...
23.3 Greg Oden (81) - Truly a shame about his injury, was playing all-star basketball.
21.5 David Lee (76) - If only he could guard centers.
21.1. Andrew Bynum (79) - Did you notice Lakers have 3 players in top 5 at each position?
20.5 Brook Lopez (78) - Certainly not the reason the Nets are 2-19.
20.0 Marc Gasol (76) - Would he have gotten this good playing for the Lakers?
19.9 Al Horford (80)
19.8 Nene (77)
18.0 Andrew Bogut (77)
18.0 Kendrick Perkins (74)

Now, I'm sure many of you are ready to disregard a list that puts Danilo Gallinari 10th among SFs, but as stated, PER really only measures offensive efficiency, and Gallinari does lead the league in threes made while shooting an excellent percentage. He rebounds well, and doesn't turn the ball over much. He is the definition of an efficient offensive player.

You'll notice SF has the lowest PER of any position, and this is because many teams go with defensive minded wings who have low PERs thanks to a limited offensive role.

A few of those players
16.5 Gerald Wallace
13.3 Ron Artest
11.7 Martell Webster
11.4 Shane Battier
11.0 Carlos Delfino
10.4 Mickael Pietrus
10.2 Tayshaun Prince (3 games)

And obviously, a player like Kirilenko who has the same PER as Gallinari is so much more valuable due to his defensive versatility. Kirilenko is probably one of the league's most underrated players nowadays, yet is clearly one of the league's top role players going by this list.

Finally, let's show some "Love" to players with limited minutes.

PLAYERS OF NOTE (bench players w/ less than 500 mins)
26.4 Kevin Love (80 mins) - Did you get the joke?
24.8 Nazr Mohammed (282 mins) - Who needs Tyson Chandler?
23.9 Marreese Speights (234 mins) - Brand/Dalembert didn't look close before injury.
22.0 Rasho Nesterovic (139 mins) - Played well previous Toronto stint if you recall.
21.4 Sergio Rodriguez (224 mins) - Swapped for Jeff Pendergraph. Nice trade for Kings.
20.0 Kelenna Azubuike (231 mins) Shame he got hurt.
19.7 Ryan Anderson (319 mins) - Who needs Rashard Lewis?
19.4 Josh Howard (93 mins) - To start, or not to start? That is the question.
18.9 Jerryd Bayless (151 mins) - Why did they block him with Andre Miller again?
18.4 Luke Ridnour (487 mins) - Playing out of his mind behind Brandon Jennings.
18.0 Earl Boykins (249 mins) - Suprise signing playing suprisingly well.
18.0 Matt Bonner (387 mins) - Efficient for all the same reasons Gallinari is.

Hopefully you all learned a little bit more about this nifty stat, and how to effectively use it as a tool.

Kudos to for just about all of this information.


Anonymous said...

Gallinari is actually a pretty good overall player. He can defend with his length and he can score in other ways besides jump shooting.

Also, for all of the money AK47 is getting payed, it's hard to call him underrated.

Rashidi said...

Gallinari is a pretty good shot blocker for the position, but his speed/quickness is pretty poor and I believe he allowed Melo to beat him down court 3 three times during Melo's 50 point game.

Money has nothing to do with our perception of players. Eddy Curry and Jerome James are overpaid and that doesn't make them overrated. Kirilenko's looked at more as a bad contract than as an star. People basically stopped caring about him when he stopped being the #1 fantasy player in the league.

Anonymous said...

Great rosters.. I was wondering if you changed any of the game sliders? I am not getting realistic games with the default sliders..

Anonymous said...

Are you going to be updating the players' tendencies this year or is it going to be ratings only again?

Rashidi said...

I've always updated tendencies in the past.

This year the task is daunting because they added so many new ones. I've been adjusting any shot tendencies I notice need to be changed, but have left the rest alone.

I also recently started working on my coach tendencies now that most teams have played 20 games.