Thursday, January 3, 2013

Archive of NBA 2K13 Association Simulations

Archive of simulation test results from my NBA 2K13 roster (made each time before a roster upload).

1/3 Roster

MVP: Russell Westbrook
ROY: Damian Lillard
6TH: Amare Stoudemire
DPY: Anderson Varejao
MIP: Robin Lopez
COY: Rick Adelman

Russell Westbrook getting MVP is a bit of a head scratcher since he isn't even the best player on his team.  Blame it on 2K's engine which looks at points, rebounds, assists, but NOT shooting percentage.

Amare Stoudemire likely won't qualify for Sixth Man since he missed the first two months of the season, but could make things interesting if he plays like a star off the bench IRL.

A decrease to Dwight Howard's ratings may have cost him Defensive Player of the Year, which is a good thing since Howard is extremely unlikely to get it this year.  Varejao won't get it either, as his team is 29th defensively, but it's good to see some variety here.

Robin Lopez is a worthy candidate for MIP, though Kemba Walker who won it in the last sim is probably more likely to walk with the award IRL.

First Team: Russell Westbrook, Dwyane Wade, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard
Second Team: Brandon Jennings, Jeremy Lin, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Anderson Varejao
Third Team: James Harden, Goran Dragic, Josh Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan

Last week we saw Brandon Jennings make All-NBA First Team despite inferior stats to Wade/Kobe AND a losing record.  This time we see Jeremy Lin make All-NBA Second Team (over James Harden!), LeBron James take a back seat to Blake Griffin on the First Team, and Anderson Varejao beat out Tim Duncan for the 2nd team.

Lin: 19.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.9 APG, 2.3 SPG, 0.2 BPG
Harden: 22.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG

Harden has the better statistical output (+3 points and FG%, +1 rebounds, -1 assists and steals), so 2K is certainly overvaluing either assists or steals in their All-NBA formula.

Griffin: 23.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.9 BPG
LeBron: 22.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Griffin actually trumps LeBron statistically.  I'll have to look into why LeBron was so passive in this simulation, as his scoring was 2nd on the team behind Wade's 23.5 PPG, and we know whose #1 in the pecking order IRL.

Varejao: 11.6 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.8 BPG
Duncan:  17.5 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.7 BPG

Seriously, when did rebounds become more important than points?

First Team: Kyle Lowry, Jason Kidd, Blake Griffin, Josh Smith, Anderson Varejao
Second Team: Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard

Blake Griffin takes Carlos Boozer's place in this week's "what???" selection.  Griffin (like Boozer) grabs a ton of rebounds and plays for one of the NBA's best defensive teams (which probably inflates his numbers a bit in the engine).

First Team: Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dion Waiters, Andre Drummond
Second Team: Alexey Shved, Bradley Beal, Royce White, Andrew Nicholson, Jeff Taylor

Aside from White who isn't playing due to health issues, we'll probably see this at the end of the year. Last week's sim saw Terrence Ross and Jared Sullinger make the cut over Nicholson and Taylor which is probably more realistic if the season ended today.

Thunder (1) defeat Rockets (8) in 7 games.
Timberwolves (5) defeat Nuggets (4) in 5 games.
Spurs (6) defeat Grizzlies (3)  in 5 games.
Lakers (7) defeat Clippers (2) in 7 games.

The Warriors are notably absent from the west bracket, and I will have to work to improve their ratings (they were only 7th last week).

Last week the Lakers were the #1 seed but were bounced in round one.  This week I decreased most of their ratings and they came in 7th, but they managed to upset the Clippers in the battle for Los Angeles.

Heat (1) defeat Hawks (8) in 6 games.
76ers (4) defeat Nets (5) in 7 games.
Bucks (6) defeat Bulls (3) in 7 games.
Knicks (2) defeat Wizards (7) in 6 games.

I can't believe I'm writing this, but the Wizards somehow made the playoffs despite being the lowest rated team in my roster (obviously, having John Wall for 82 games was a big factor).

Thunder (1) defeat Timberwolves (5) in 6 games.
Lakers (7) defeat Spurs (6) in 6 games.
76ers (4) defeat Heat (1) in 7 games.
Knicks (2) defeat Bucks (6) in 5 games.

Heat lose to a team that may not even make the playoffs IRL (granted, they do have Andrew Bynum in these sims).

Lakers (4) defeat Thunder (1) in 4 games.
Knicks (2) defeat 76ers (4) in 4 games
Lakers (7) defeat Knicks (2) in 5 games.

Looks like my Laker rating decreases were all for naught, as they go on to win the NBA Championship.
Kobe Bryant named Finals MVP.

Players: Jason Terry, Grant Hill, Ray Allen, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Rasheed Wallace, Pablo Prigioni, Jerry Stackhouse, Andre Miller
Coaches: Lawrence Frank
HOF: Ray Allen, Jason Kidd

This list is exactly the same as last week, with Jason Terry (2 years remaining on contract!!!!!!!!!!!!) taking the place of Richard Hamilton, and Kurt Thomas for whatever reason deciding to suit up for another year at age 41 while the rest of his younger teammates call it quits.  As with last time, Allen, Kidd, Camby, and Miller all have guaranteed years and few players EVER walk away from guaranteed money.  It's anyone's guess as to when 2K Sports figures this out.

Lawrence Frank retiring yet again still makes as little sense last week as it does now - he's one of the league's youngest coaches.

David West, J.R. Smith, and Jarrett Jack signed with the Cavaliers. One of the biggest changes I made in this roster is giving Chris Paul a max extension with the Clippers to prevent him from signing with the Cavs as he does in every single Association or MyCareer.  The Cavs in turn spent their money on a better balanced team.  Bravo!
The Hawks signed Nate Robinson to backup extremely similar Louis Williams, pushing Jeff Teague to 3rd string.  LOL.  A possible solution in future rosters is switching Lou to SG in the future, as he's been starting there recently.
Hornets brought back Carl Landry to backup both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.  This is the same Landry the Hornets let walk to the Warriors because they had the other two guys.
Nikola Pekovic signed with the Jazz, replacing Paul Millsap.  This makes former #3 pick Enes Kanter a 3rd string behind Jefferson and Pek.
Knicks sign Jazz backups Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson to replace retired Kidd and Prigioni, bring in DeShawn Stevenson to replace J.R. Smith, and bring in Samuel Dalembert to replace retired Camby and Wallace.
As with last week, Dwight Howard left the Lakers, and the best replacement they could muster was Jermaine O'Neal.  The major difference between the last two weeks is THE LAKERS JUST WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!  Dwight wouldn't stick around for the title defense on a better contract than any other team can offer?  I find that hard to believe.
Paul Millsap signed with the Magic, which beats him completely disappearing via glitch as he did in last week's sim.  Andray Blatche also signed with the Magic, as he did last week.
J.J. Hickson signed with the Pistons, turning Andre Drummond into a 3rd string (though the lack of quality PFs probably means Greg Monroe starts there).
Dwight Howard once again signed with the Rockets.  If this persists, I am likewise going to have to give him an extension with the Lakers, who are extremely likely to keep him regardless of their season results.  Who else do they have for the future?  While the concept of a Howard/Harden/Lin team sounds fun, turning Omer Asik into a 15 million dollar backup in 2015 is not.

Top Unsigned FAs
PG: Delonte West (73), Jeremy Pargo (72)
SG: J.J. Redick (74), Brandon Roy (73), Tony Allen (72)
SF: Stephen Jackson (73), Ronnie Brewer (72), Dahntay Jones (71), Anthony Morrow (71), Mike Dunleavy (71), Martell Webster (70), Damion James (70)
PF: Elton Brand (76), JaJuan Johnson (70)
C: Timofey Mozgov (66)

Overall, these are better results than we saw last week, despite some hiccups from 2K's simulation engine.  Time to see where next week's adjustments take us!

12/25 Roster

Results from 12/25 roster. Tested with player roles, chemistry, CPU trades, and injuries turned off.  No association simulations are exactly the same.

MVP: LeBron James
ROY: Damian Lillard
6TH: Ryan Anderson
DPY: Dwight Howard
MIP: Kemba Walker
COY: Mike D'Antoni

The top 3 are a given.  Ryan Anderson has outplayed both Jamal Crawford and Kevin Martin even though nobody in the media is reporting it due to market differences.  Dwight is a perennial DPOY when healthy, while Kemba is definitely a fine candidate for MIP.  COY is given to coach of the best team so this will often go to Lakers/Heat/Thunder coaches (though the idea of D'Antoni as COY is an amusing one given our knowledge of how the NBA season has actually played out).

All-NBA 1st: Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard
All-NBA 2nd: Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan
All-NBA 3rd: Stephen Curry, Deron Williams, Josh Smith, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMarcus Cousins

Jennings on the 1st team over Wade and Kobe stands out as really bad.
Jennungs: 21.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 SPG, 41.7 FG%
Kobe: 24.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 48.7 FG%
Wade: 23.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 52.5 FG%

Chalk this one up to 2K Sports not understanding the importance of shooting percentage.

All-Defense 1st: Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul, Josh Smith, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard
All-Defense 2nd: Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala, Carlos Boozer, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

2K's defensive teams are usually atrocious since it looks exclusively at rebounds, steals, and blocks rather than actual ability (Awareness or On-Ball/Post ratings play no factor). I've never seen non-shot blockers like Boozer (9.2 DRB, 1.4 STL, 0.5 BLK) and Cousins (9.7 DRB, 1.4 STL, 1.0 BLK) make it before though.

All-Rookie 1st: Damian Lillard, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, Dion Waiters, Andre Drummond
All-Rookie 2nd: Alexey Shved, Bradley Beal, Royce White, Terrence Ross, Jared Sullinger

Aside from White who isn't playing due to health issues, we'll probably see this at the end of the year.

Timberwolves (8) defeat Lakers (1) in 6 games.
Grizzlies (5) defeat Clippers (4) in 7 games.
Thunder (6) defeat Spurs (3) in 7 games.
Nuggets (2) defeat Warriors (7) in 5 games.

Regardless of the order, these are the top 8 teams in the west.
The curse of the 2K sim engine strikes again, as it seems like one of the #1 seeds is destined to lose in the first round every season even though this rarely happens in reality.  I understand 2K likes to keep things varied in association, but come on, the best teams should advance the majority of the time, especially with chemistry and injuries turned off.

Heat (1) defeat Pacers (8) in 5 games.
Hawks (5) defeat Knicks (4) in 5 games.
Nets (6) defeat Sixers (3) in 6 games.
Bulls (2) defeat Celtics (7) in 7 games.

Only the Sixers would be a non-playoff team if the season started today.  On that note, the Bucks absence here (6th IRL) certainly nullifies Brandon Jennings' selection to All-NBA First team.

Timberwolves (8) defeat Grizzlies (5) in 6 games.
Nuggets (2) defeat Thunder (6) in 7 games.
Heat (1) defeat Hawks (5) in 6 games.
Nets (6) defeat Bulls (2) in 6 games.

The Western Conference Finals are between the west's worst two playoff teams.  Go figure.

Nuggets (2) defeat Timberwolves (8) in 5 games.
Heat (1) defeat Nets (6) in 4 games.
Heat (1) defeat Nuggets (2) in 6 games.

LeBron named Finals MVP.

Players: Richard Hamilton, Grant Hill, Ray Allen, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Rasheed Wallace, Pablo Prigioni, Kurt Thomas, Jerry Stackhouse, Andre Miller
Coaches: Lawrence Frank
HOF: Ray Allen, Jason Kidd

Of those players, there isn't a chance that Allen, Kidd, Camby, or Miller retire because they are all owed guaranteed money on their contracts (while Hamilton and Hill have team options).  When will 2K Sports figure out that players who are under contract DON'T retire?  It's ONLY been 12 years...

Lawrence Frank retiring makes no sense either considering he's only 42 years old.  Since we have AGES for players, how about we get them for coaches too?

Dwight Howard signed w/ Rockets.  Lakers replaced him with Samuel Dalemebert.  WELP.
Chris Paul signed w/ Cavaliers, who still have Kyrie Irving. GO 2K!  Paul would NEVER pick a young rebuilding team over the contender he was already on who could also offer more money/years.  2K must be saying the Clippers would let Paul walk.
David West signed w/ Jazz, replacing Millsap.
Nate Robinson and Andray Blatche become the top 2 players on the Magic.
Nikola Pekovic signed w/ Mavericks.
Paul Millsap is nowhere to be found.  He disappeared.  High five for 2K glitches!

As you can see, an updated roster can only take us so far.

No comments: