Saturday, November 15, 2008

The 2K Insider commited credibility suicide.

I am shocked and apalled by the ratings released in today's roster update.

O.J. Mayo - 86 overall
Derrick Rose - 85 overall
Rudy Fernandez - 85 overall
Nate Robinson - 85 overall

PER ain't perfect, but it'll do here.

23.8 Fernandez
20.3 Robinson
17.3 Rose
16.5 Mayo

Fernandez and Robinson are both off to hot starts, but come on, it's a wee bit early for that kind of rating. Robinson is the top rated player on the Knicks for crying out loud.

Rose and Mayo meanwhile, get real, they are rookies playing 38 minutes per game and not even putting up all-star numbers. Rose is averaging 17/5/5 and Mayo is averaging 21/5/2

To illustrate how overrated they are, here are their comparables sorted by PER.

20.7 Devin Harris (86 overall)
20.4 T.J. Ford (84 overall)
19.7 Ramon Sessions (78 overall)
18.9 Mike Bibby (84 overall)
18.2 Jameer Nelson (80 overall)
18.0 Andre Miller (81 overall)
17.3 Derrick Rose (85 overall)

22.8 Ben Gordon (83 overall)
19.3 Kevin Martin (86 overall)
18.7 Jamal Crawford (84 overall)
17.6 Michael Redd (86 overall)
17.2 Kevin Durant (82 overall)
16.7 Jason Terry (84 overall)
16.5 O.J. Mayo (86 overall)
16.4 Jason Richardson (83 overall)
16.2 Mike Miller (81 overall)

It should be fairly obvious that both players are overrated when compared to their veteran peers. Let's analyze each player and look for which specific ratings are the culprits.

O.J. Mayo
Overall 86 (+3)
Med 88 (+3)
3pt 87 (+4)
Handle 88 (+5)
Pass 67 (-4)
Speed 87 (+4)
OffAwr 85 (+8)
Quickness 89 (+3)

Mayo is averaging 19.0 points p36m and 2.2 assists p36m. I have no idea how this befits an 85 offensive awareness. That is Zach Randolph type selfishness. How can a guard that averages 2 assists playing that many minutes really be that offensively aware?

Bboosting up Mayo's 3pt rating is difficult to understand. Yes, he was shooting 42%. But after going 1-6 in his last game that drops him back down to 39%. Shooting percentages are much too fickle early on and it was not reasonable to expect him to continue shooting such a high percentage. So now he is overrated until he changes it back, if he ever gets around to it. I don't expect that he will since he cant keep spending the same time each week on the same players and he just gave Mayo an overhaul, so it looks like Mayo's 3pt rating will be higher than it should be for the foreseeable future.

Not helping matters is Mayo remains a bit overrated defensively. He didn't touch any defensive ratings and I don't expect him to, as I doubt the 2k Insider has much grasp of anything defensively aside from blocked shots (and even then he has a limited grasp which has been pointed out in various examples).

Now regarding my end, I gave Mayo an 81 last week after a tirade in which I compared him to a young Cuttino Mobley. Mayo then proceeded to shut me up by averaging 26.5 ppg over his last four games. So as a reasonable person, I'll take that and raise his rating. I've now got him at an 84 which I think is pretty fair. An 86 is really pushing it.

Derrick Rose
+5 Close
+4 Med
+2 3pt
+13 FT
+4 Layup (now 99)
+3 Dunk (now 92... how many dunks does he have on the year? Three?)
+2 Handle
+2 Speed
+9 Stamina (now 99. When are they gonna do that to CHRIS PAUL?)
+7 OffAwr (an 89 for a rookie PG that averages 17 pts and 5 asts. 8 year pro 20/6 Tony Parker is a 91 if you were wondering).
+2 Vert (now 98)
+3 Quick (now 98)

Nothing too outrageous to focus on, my notes pretty much sum it up, moving along to the next one.

Nate Robinson
+7 Overall
+1 Med
+7 3pt
+6 Pass
+14 Steal
+19 OffReb
+14 DefReb

+2 Speed
+10 OffAwr
+6 Str (84!)
+1 Vert (99)
+2 Quick (99)
+7 Hustle (99)

Let me say this now: I love Nate Robinson. He's become my favorite player on the Knicks, he's a legitimate scorer in this league, and he's actually a legit point guard now.

That said, he is not a better rebounder than Jason Kidd. Nate is not rebounding any better than he has been his entire career. Why fix what ain't broken? An 82 offensive rebound rating is atrocious, he is overrated by like 15 points now.

What I don't understand is if you're overrating him because of his height, why the hell does Yao Ming have such high rebound ratings every year? Shouldn't he be in the 70s reboundingwise if that's your logic?

Rudy Fernandez
+7 Overall
+14 Close
+4 Med
+6 3pt
+3 Layup
+10 Dunk
+4 Handle
+4 Steal
+8 DefAwr
+9 OffAwr
+10 Str
+5 Vert
+7 Quick

Here's Rudy's shot chart (going by 82games)

61% 3pt
27% Mid
8% Close
2% Dunk
1% Tip

As you can see, most of Rudy's shots are threes (nearly two thirds!) and he's shot a ridiculous 46% on a high volume of shots. I ain't disputing his 3pt rating though.

Rudy is 16-33 from the field on non-3pters. That's 48% on approx 3 shots per game. How the hell does 16-33 translate to a 14 point jump in Close shot and a 4 point jump in Mid shot? Rudy has better shot ratings than Kobe ****ing Bryant. Don't get me started on Tracy McGrady (who btw, Rudy has the same dunk rating as now). Okay, maybe I should get started...

Close/Med/3pt for SGs
Rudy 93/87/90 = 270
Johnson 92/89/88 = 269
Nash = 84/91/93 = 268
Kobe = 93/87/86 = 266
Gordon 86/89/89 = 264
Richardson 85/85/93 = 263
LeBron 96/85/79 = 260
Redd 88/85/86 = 259
Mayo 83/88/87 = 258
Roy 89/86/75 = 250
McGrady 92/78/78 = 248
Iguodala 87/81/77 = 245

I could seriously go on another 20 players, but I've got a blog to write.

What do all those players have in common? They are STARTERS, unlike Rudy.

Oh, and then there's the matter of his defense. He was given +8 to DefAwr, meanwhile opposing SGs have absolutely torched him for the following numbers.

.608 eFG%
23.7 Pp48m
22.6 PER

Wow, obviously this is a guy who knows what he's doing on defense. Nevermind that every credible pre-NBA scouting report out there says the guy is a poor defender, albeit one with potential to one day be good enough to deserve a 78.

So congratulations 2K Sports. You hired someone who never heard of balance, nor does he know anything about the nature of sample size. We are left wondering if these non-stars will be lowered in the future, or whether we are going to have to suffer through getting spanked by them online because they shot the ball well the first three weeks of the season.

Either that, or you actually believe the guy has done his job. All four of these players are very popular and you probably think it will keep the fans happy. Maybe it will. But then again, since I have the top downloaded/highest rated file on 2K Share, PROBABLYYYYY NOTTTTT. It's a shame we don't have the option of rating the 2K Insider's files so 2K can actually see what we think. But then, have they ever actually cared what we think in the first place?


Anonymous said...

Oh Wise and Benevolent Leader

Can you please tell me why the Mavericks are struggling? I thought Jason Kidd would bring them back to glory.

Anonymous said...

Oh and nice write up

John said...

This was a crucial win for the Bulls and I believe the team can build on from this. I like what I'm seeing from them.

Derrick Rose is fast becoming one of the best in the business and the Bulls should be proud to have him. I do believe he can be the next Le Bron.

As a Nocioni fan, I was extremely happy with his performance tonight. This is just the type of support the Bulls need from the bench to keep this momentum going.

I would be more happy to see him and Luol Deng starting rather then Noce on the bench. But as long as the results keep coming, then I have no complains.

Anyway, I would be happy to hear soke feedback from other Bulls fan about tonights game?

Rashidi said...

Dallas hasn't been that bad. They have suffered a couple close losses, but they will come around. Their core problem is they play in the stacked western conference.

The shot defense is there as they are holding opponents to .427 shooting. The problem is the Mavs are only shooting .427 themselves, and they are letting opponents beat them at the line as much as their opponents (22.7 FTA for Dallas vs 29.9 for their opponents).

Dirk is only grabbing 7 boards which can be attributed to the Kidd factor (and Josh/Damp grabbing 8 each). However you would think this team would have a huge rebounding edge over other teams and that hasn't been the case (+14 through 9 games), so that falls on Dirk's shoulders I think.

Terry/Howard haven't shot the ball as well as they should. Green has been a nice surprise to offset Stackhouse looking D-O-N-E. Bass has been alright but not as good as last year thus far.

Dallas has nothing on the bench after Bass and Green, and their first unit doesn't have enough firepower to keep Terry out of it (two non-shooters in Dampier and Kidd). Diop isn't doing much, Stack has been terrible, and they are followed by unspectacular Antoine Wright and Jose Barea.

They need more time to gel. If Green keeps progressing they should be able to start him and bring Terry off the bench, which would help the second unit immensely.

Anonymous said...

if ur the insider that decides the ratings then why did you let this come out?

Brandon said...

Not that I disagree with a lot of your points, but Fernandez plays starters minutes(28+)and could start on nearly every team in the NBA..he just happens to have Brandon Roy ahead of him -- he can also freaking shoot the lights out from everywhere.

The Nate-Rob stuff is insane though!

Rashidi said...

Rudy would have a lot of guys in front of him though, that's the point. He wouldn't start over Stephen Jackson or anything.

Nate averages like 7 boards in association with the new ratings.

Flight Risk said...

I agree with you completely, these ratings boosts are a farce. I do believe that Derrick Rose needed a boost because he is showing he might be the premiere athlete at his position. He has a Lebron like quality to just run circles around the guy thats guarding him with ease, and seems to have a highlight dunk/lay-up in every game.

I live in the NY market, so i've seen Nate Robinson hit a ridiculous amount of shots this year. He's also the most fun personality in the NBA this year. However 7 boards a game is a disaster, and 2K needs to re-evaluate some of these positions.

As far as O.J. and Rudy Fernandez, i understand 2K's thinking in the jump in ratings (along with the other 2) in that they wanted to add more than just subtle changes to players that have excelled in the first couple weeks of the season. I don't agree that it should be done this way, but it looks like they're doing more with drastic changes.

BTW, as good as Jason Kidd is playing, Devin Harris is better. I know Dallas didn't lose anything else in the trade, but Harris is playing like one of the top PG's in the league this year and the Nets are 4-2 with him in the line-up (4-5 on the year)

Rashidi said...

The Nets could be a fluke, as they are dead last in Opponent's Pts per 100 poss.

I don't think we can expect Devin Harris to average 12 FTA all season long (nor should we expect him to stay healthy if that's the case).

Vince also deserves a fair amount of the credit, he is averaging 24 pts and 5 assists, and has been just as good in the wins as the losses.

Rashidi said...

I believe I mentioned this before - reports of Vince Carter's decline were greatly exaggerated. He got injured 7 games into the year last season and played through it. His stellar production is back to normal this season. Better luck next year for his haters.

Anonymous said...

Rudy isn't a bad defender. The scouts were wrong on that. He isn't a great defender but defense is not a weakness in his game. There isn't really any weakness in his game for that matter. That said a 85 rating this early into the season is retarded, 2k insider is a dumbass for that. 82-83 around there for Fernandez, anything higher is pushing it.