I am shocked and apalled by the ratings released in today's roster update.
O.J. Mayo - 86 overall
Derrick Rose - 85 overall
Rudy Fernandez - 85 overall
Nate Robinson - 85 overall
PER ain't perfect, but it'll do here.
Fernandez and Robinson are both off to hot starts, but come on, it's a wee bit early for that kind of rating. Robinson is the top rated player on the Knicks for crying out loud.
Rose and Mayo meanwhile, get real, they are rookies playing 38 minutes per game and not even putting up all-star numbers. Rose is averaging 17/5/5 and Mayo is averaging 21/5/2
To illustrate how overrated they are, here are their comparables sorted by PER.
20.7 Devin Harris (86 overall)
20.4 T.J. Ford (84 overall)
19.7 Ramon Sessions (78 overall)
18.9 Mike Bibby (84 overall)
18.2 Jameer Nelson (80 overall)
18.0 Andre Miller (81 overall)
17.3 Derrick Rose (85 overall)
22.8 Ben Gordon (83 overall)
19.3 Kevin Martin (86 overall)
18.7 Jamal Crawford (84 overall)
17.6 Michael Redd (86 overall)
17.2 Kevin Durant (82 overall)
16.7 Jason Terry (84 overall)
16.5 O.J. Mayo (86 overall)
16.4 Jason Richardson (83 overall)
16.2 Mike Miller (81 overall)
It should be fairly obvious that both players are overrated when compared to their veteran peers. Let's analyze each player and look for which specific ratings are the culprits.
Overall 86 (+3)
Med 88 (+3)
3pt 87 (+4)
Handle 88 (+5)
Pass 67 (-4)
Speed 87 (+4)
OffAwr 85 (+8)
Quickness 89 (+3)
Mayo is averaging 19.0 points p36m and 2.2 assists p36m. I have no idea how this befits an 85 offensive awareness. That is Zach Randolph type selfishness. How can a guard that averages 2 assists playing that many minutes really be that offensively aware?
Bboosting up Mayo's 3pt rating is difficult to understand. Yes, he was shooting 42%. But after going 1-6 in his last game that drops him back down to 39%. Shooting percentages are much too fickle early on and it was not reasonable to expect him to continue shooting such a high percentage. So now he is overrated until he changes it back, if he ever gets around to it. I don't expect that he will since he cant keep spending the same time each week on the same players and he just gave Mayo an overhaul, so it looks like Mayo's 3pt rating will be higher than it should be for the foreseeable future.
Not helping matters is Mayo remains a bit overrated defensively. He didn't touch any defensive ratings and I don't expect him to, as I doubt the 2k Insider has much grasp of anything defensively aside from blocked shots (and even then he has a limited grasp which has been pointed out in various examples).
Now regarding my end, I gave Mayo an 81 last week after a tirade in which I compared him to a young Cuttino Mobley. Mayo then proceeded to shut me up by averaging 26.5 ppg over his last four games. So as a reasonable person, I'll take that and raise his rating. I've now got him at an 84 which I think is pretty fair. An 86 is really pushing it.
+4 Layup (now 99)
+3 Dunk (now 92... how many dunks does he have on the year? Three?)
+9 Stamina (now 99. When are they gonna do that to CHRIS PAUL?)
+7 OffAwr (an 89 for a rookie PG that averages 17 pts and 5 asts. 8 year pro 20/6 Tony Parker is a 91 if you were wondering).
+2 Vert (now 98)
+3 Quick (now 98)
Nothing too outrageous to focus on, my notes pretty much sum it up, moving along to the next one.
+6 Str (84!)
+1 Vert (99)
+2 Quick (99)
+7 Hustle (99)
Let me say this now: I love Nate Robinson. He's become my favorite player on the Knicks, he's a legitimate scorer in this league, and he's actually a legit point guard now.
That said, he is not a better rebounder than Jason Kidd. Nate is not rebounding any better than he has been his entire career. Why fix what ain't broken? An 82 offensive rebound rating is atrocious, he is overrated by like 15 points now.
What I don't understand is if you're overrating him because of his height, why the hell does Yao Ming have such high rebound ratings every year? Shouldn't he be in the 70s reboundingwise if that's your logic?
Here's Rudy's shot chart (going by 82games)
As you can see, most of Rudy's shots are threes (nearly two thirds!) and he's shot a ridiculous 46% on a high volume of shots. I ain't disputing his 3pt rating though.
Rudy is 16-33 from the field on non-3pters. That's 48% on approx 3 shots per game. How the hell does 16-33 translate to a 14 point jump in Close shot and a 4 point jump in Mid shot? Rudy has better shot ratings than Kobe ****ing Bryant. Don't get me started on Tracy McGrady (who btw, Rudy has the same dunk rating as now). Okay, maybe I should get started...
Close/Med/3pt for SGs
Rudy 93/87/90 = 270
Johnson 92/89/88 = 269
Nash = 84/91/93 = 268
Kobe = 93/87/86 = 266
Gordon 86/89/89 = 264
Richardson 85/85/93 = 263
LeBron 96/85/79 = 260
Redd 88/85/86 = 259
Mayo 83/88/87 = 258
Roy 89/86/75 = 250
McGrady 92/78/78 = 248
Iguodala 87/81/77 = 245
I could seriously go on another 20 players, but I've got a blog to write.
What do all those players have in common? They are STARTERS, unlike Rudy.
Oh, and then there's the matter of his defense. He was given +8 to DefAwr, meanwhile opposing SGs have absolutely torched him for the following numbers.
Wow, obviously this is a guy who knows what he's doing on defense. Nevermind that every credible pre-NBA scouting report out there says the guy is a poor defender, albeit one with potential to one day be good enough to deserve a 78.
So congratulations 2K Sports. You hired someone who never heard of balance, nor does he know anything about the nature of sample size. We are left wondering if these non-stars will be lowered in the future, or whether we are going to have to suffer through getting spanked by them online because they shot the ball well the first three weeks of the season.
Either that, or you actually believe the guy has done his job. All four of these players are very popular and you probably think it will keep the fans happy. Maybe it will. But then again, since I have the top downloaded/highest rated file on 2K Share, PROBABLYYYYY NOTTTTT. It's a shame we don't have the option of rating the 2K Insider's files so 2K can actually see what we think. But then, have they ever actually cared what we think in the first place?