Friday, October 10, 2008

Simulated stats, Part III

Okay, I made some rating changes to the top 10 scorers from the previous association, with the exception of Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Durant. Let's see if anything changed.

Top 10 PPG (Previous test in parenthasize)
K. Durant 30.4 (26.0)
K. Bryant 29.2 (27.1)
L. James 28.0 (29.4)
M. Redd 25.4 (n/a)
A. Iverson 25.2 (27.6)
R. Gay 25.1 (26.8)
D. Nowitzki 25.0 (25.2)
C. Anthony 24.4 (25.6)
J. Crawford 24.2 (n/a)
J. Johnson 23.7 (27.4)

I actually just discovered something very discouraging. Martin, Wade, and McGrady are absent, but not because their scoring dropped, but because they "didn't qualify". However each player STARTED 82 games so I fail to see how that could be.

That would explain CP3 being absent from assist/steal leaderboards, because players don't even suffer injuries in association now. The most they ever miss is a month, and most of them are injuries that they play through anyway. Other than season ending injuries, I have seen ONE injury where the player missed more than 35 days.

97 players started all 82 games. That's completely unacceptable. I don't think that many even play 82 games in real life, that's over three per team.

Basketball-Reference games leaders

BBRef pretty much confirms that. Only 44 players in the NBA played all 82 games. It's funny that 2k keeps making all these adjustments to it's player roles and team chemistry, you're never going to have a variance in PT and roles if players are never getting hurt, which is how bench players get big minutes in the first place. It would have been great if they actually figured that out, I dunno, three years ago... instead, it's a key issue in the company's most ambitious title, and one that could have easily been corrected had they listened to any of the experts in the gaming community.

EDIT: Okay, I raised the Injury Severity slider from 50 to 75 and ran another sim.

I avoided going to league leaders and checked each invididual team, here are the 20 ppg scorers.

L. James 28.2 ppg (82g)
D. Wade 28.0 ppg (82g)
K. Bryant 27.9 ppg (82g)
K. Durant 27.5 ppg (82g)
D. Nowitzki 26.2 ppg (82g)
K. Martin 26.2 ppg (76g)
T. McGrady 25.1 ppg (72g)
J. Johnson 24.9 ppg (82g)
A. Iverson 24.7 ppg (82g)
B. Davis 23.8 ppg (82g)
M. Ginobili 23.8 ppg (82g)
M. Redd 23.6 ppg (82g)
S. Jackson 23.5 ppg (82g)
C. Paul 23.2 ppg (82g)
D. Williams 23.2 ppg (82g)
C. Anthony 23.1 ppg (82g)
J. Crawford 23.1 ppg (82g)
R. Gay 22.2 ppg (82g)
V. Carter 21.5 ppg (75g)
C. Billups 21.5 ppg (82g)
R. Allen 21.1 ppg (76g)
J. Richardson 20.9 ppg (82g)
P. Pierce 20.7 ppg (76g)
A. Iguodala 20.4 ppg (82g)
C. Maggette 20.4 ppg (82g)
C. Bosh 20.2 ppg (82g)

Only 26 players scored 20 ppg, down from 31.

I turned the injury slider all the way up to 99 (for User and CPU mind you). "Only" 85 players started 82 games this time, which I guess constitutes "improvement". This time 33 players averaged 20 ppg though.

The only thing I can think of is lowering the durability ratings for the entire league, since it is obvious that the slider has little to no effect in an association, and likely only influences games you play.

EDIT II: I lowered the durability ratings for all the 20 ppg scorers to 50 and ran another simulation.

Here were the injuries that knocked players out

Kevin Garnett: 17 days (seperated shoulder)
Vince Carter: 35 days (broken hand)
Gilbert Arenas: 33 days (broken toe)
Jamal Crawford: 22 days (strained achilles)

Everyone else played 82 games.

The game is officially broken. All we can do is pester 2K Sports about a patch that will fix this. We need significant injuries. What's the point of "progressive fatigue" if it never takes it's toll?


Anonymous said...

I wonder, hopefully that's not how the top 10 usually comes out. There are players that should be scoring over 23 that aren't in there. There's no Melo, Amare, and Wade. I definitely agree that some of the players on that list should maybe even score 8 less points.

Benjamin said...

so durability ratings may need to go down to make this work? cuz sliders would only apply to played games.

does this force you to rethink your durability ratings? are u willing to run some tests?

Rabbott said...

so far it seems the biggest issue with injurys is that unless players injurys are severe like broken wrist and the turn red,when their injuryturns them yellow even if their injury drops their stats by 20 points they will still start, the cpu does not redo rotations with these kinds of injurys 2k felt it was better to have a faster sim engine then an accurate one

also side note the injury servity slider does nothing for simming

Rabbott said...

Rashidi I think I may have found something try simming with out prgress fatigue here is my reason Because the cpu never bench's players and the injury system is a little messed up you have players that are playing while exhausted it seems like the first think to go is def and rebounding I had much better results with this off (now if we can get the injury thing figued out)

Rabbott said...

Sorry to comment again but I didnt know where else to send a message. was wondering if you have noticed the DNQ bug where random stats will post this for leage leaders even if the start every game and score 28 points a game seems to happen to almost always the same player's like dwade

Anonymous said...

the durability slider is backwards and it does affect sim games, I have both durability and injury severity at 100 and have four players out for 2-4 months but this was from played games, it help the sim injuries but I agree that there are not enuff side lining injuries...