Sunday, October 17, 2010

Editing Touch Tendency, part 2

It's time to run another simulation using everything we learned from previous simulations. I have since adjusted touches tendencies for the Knicks based on their usage rates, and their new values are as follows.

TOUCHES
69 Felton
63 Stoudemire
60 Douglas
58 Mason
43 Turiaf
43 Curry
41 Randolph
32 Gallinari
32 Mozgov
31 Chandler
20 Rautins
7 Walker

KNICKS LINEUP (Touches in parenthasize)
Felton (69), Chandler (31), Gallinari (32), Stoudemire (63), Mozgov (32)


NO PLAY
Gallinari hesitation into a contested fadeaway.
RESULT: SCORE (Gallinari 0-1 FG)

NO PLAY
Gallinari drills an open triple when his man left to double Felton.
RESULT: SCORE (Gallinari 1-2 FG, 1-1 3PT)

NO PLAY
Gallinari gives it to Mozgov in the post, gets fouled and goes to line.
RESULT: FOUL (Mozgov 1-2 FT)

NO PLAY
Amare catches, makes some jab moves, pulls up for a mid-range jumper. No dribbles. He misses the shot, but it's the first quarter, and he's taken a shot!
RESULT: MISS (Amare 0-1 FG)

PF PLAY - 14 DIVE
Felton's pass to Amare gets intercepted. Amare comes off a Mozgov screen but Lopez stepped off Moz to make an easy interception.
RESULT: TURNNOVER (Felton: 1)

NO PLAY
Wasn't paying attention (internet hiccup). Mozgov turned it over somehow.
RESULT: TURNOVER (Mozgov: 1)

PF PLAY - 54 SCREEN
Amare uses Moz screen, takes FT line jumper that bounces in.
RESULT: SCORE (Amare 1-2 FG)

FASTBREAK
Felton bounce pass threads needle to Chandler for a dunk. A pass only Stockton/Nash/Kidd could ever make, but whatever.
RESULT: SCORE (Chandler 1-1 FG)

PF PLAY - 34 POST
Amare turnaround on Lopez from 18 feet. Posting up is way too effective but as with the previous play, that's a separate issue.
RESULT: SCORE (Amare 2-3 FG)

NO PLAY
Amare gets a clearout. Couple jabs, makes his move into the paint (where he is surrounded by four Net defenders). Lopez blocks a hook.
RESULT: MISS (Amare 2-4 FG)

PG PLAY - 1 DOUBLE
Play started with mini-break on steal from Felton, but Chandler couldn't do anything so they reset. Play is a double screen that defense recovers on, but Felton crossovers defender to get a step, goes up for a layup and gets fouled.
RESULT: FOUL (Felton 2-2 FT)

SUBSTITUTIONS
Turiaf for Mozgov

KNICKS LINEUP
Felton (69), Chandler (31), Gallinari (32), Stoudemire (63), Turiaf (43)

RESULT: +11 to center position

PG PLAY - 1 DOUBLE
Double screens again but Felton doesn't use them as he beats Harris off dribble as play is setting up. Outlaw rotates which leaves Gallinari wide open for a three that he misses. For a shooter with a high 3pt rating, Gallinari sure misses a lot of open ones.
RESULT: MISS (Gallinari 1-3 FG, 1-2 3PT)

TIMEOUT - 6:06

NO PLAY
Amare inbounds to Turiaf deep in the post, and he goes up for an easy post layup. If any of us tried that, the pass would fly over Turiaf's head, or be poked away by Lopez. You know this to be a fact.
RESULT: SCORE (Turiaf 1-1 FG)

FASTBREAK
Chandler receives outlet after missed shot for a 3-2 break. Gives up to Felton who goes up, gets contested, but dishes to Gallinari who gets fouled, count the basket.
RESULT: SCORE + FOUL (Gallinari 2-4 FG, 1-2 3PT, 0-1 FT)

PF PLAY - 54 SCREEN
Amare uses Turiaf's screen, goes to the basket on Murphy with ease, count the basket and the foul.
RESULT: SCORE + FOUL (Amare 3-5 FG, 1-1 FT)

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Turiaf somehow draws a foul on Lopez. Murphy and Lopez both have 2 fouls now.
RESULT: FOUL (Turiaf 1-1 FG, 2-2 FT)

SUBSTITUTIONS
Felton for Douglas
Mason for Gallinari

KNICKS LINEUP
Douglas (60), Mason (58), Chandler (31), Stoudemire (63), Turiaf (43)
RESULT: -9 to PG position, +27 to SG position, -2 to SF position

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
Mason is supposed to come off double screens but they never really get set, so he doesn't lose his man. Mason catches and pulls up for a contested fadeaway 18 foot jumper that misses. Nevermind. It bounces in after I unpause it.
RESULT: SCORE (Mason 1-1 FG)

SUBSTITUTIONS
Randolph for Stoudemire (2 fouls on Amare)

KNICKS LINEUP
Douglas (60), Mason (58), Chandler (31), Randolph (41), Turiaf (43)
RESULT: -22 to PF position


SG PLAY - 12 OVER
The screens get set this time, but they are terribly places (particularly Randolph's) so Mason takes another contested jumper that really misses this time.
RESULT: MISS (Mason 1-2 FG)

PG PLAY - 23 UP
This play didn't work last game against Jordan Farmar, but Harris is lackadaisical and Douglas drills an open three.
RESULT: SCORE (Douglas 1-1 FG, 1-1 3PT)

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Turiaf posts up for a fade jumper that misses.
RESULT: MISS (Turiaf 1-2 FG, 2-2 FT)

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
Mason actually gets open this time, but the shot misses. Randolph grabs the offensive board and resets.
RESULT: MISS (Mason 1-3 FG)

NO PLAY (OFF REB)
Randolph offensive rebounds and resets to Chandler, who drives in for a missed mid-range shot.
RESULT: MISS (Chandler 1-2 FG)

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
It's deja vu. Mason gets open but misses the shot, Randolph offensive rebounds.
RESULT: MISS (Mason 1-4 FG)

NO PLAY (OFF REB)
Randolph goes up for the shot this time after his offensive board but it's blocked.
RESULT: MISS (Randolph 0-1 FG)

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
You'd think after running the play 5 times in a row the team would figure out how to run it. Randolph nearly commits a 3 second violation setting a no-where screen while waiting for Turiaf to set his (was just standing around). Randolph leaves the paint, and thats when Turiaf starts his screen and the play starts. Incredulously, however, Mason's man plays horrific defense and gets Mason an open look that he drills this time.
RESULT: SCORE (Mason 2-5 FG)

SUBSTITUTIONS
Felton for Douglas
Walker for Mason
Gallinari for Chandler
Mozgov for Randolph (2 fouls on Randolph)

KNICKS LINEUP
Felton (69), Walker (7), Gallinari (32), Turiaf (43), Mozgov (33)
RESULT: +9 PG, -51 SG, +1 SF, +2 PF, -10 C


NO PLAY (end of quarter)
Felton runs up court and hoists a 35 footer
RESULT: MISS (Felton 0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT)

END OF FIRST QUARTER
Amare 7 pts (3-5 FG, 1-1 FT)
Gallo 5 pts (2-4 FG, 1-2 3PT, 0-1 FT)
Mason 4 pts (2-5 FG)
Turiaf 4 pts (1-2 FG, 2-2 FT)
Douglas 3 pts (1-1 FG, 1-1 3PT)
Chandler 2 pts (1-2 FG)
Felton 2 pts (0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Mozgov 1 pts (0-0 FG, 1-2 FT)
Randolph 0 pts (0-1 FG)
Walker 0 pts (0-0 FG)


SECOND QUARTER

SUBSTITUTIONS
Amare for Turiaf

KNICKS LINEUP
Felton (69), Walker (7), Gallinari (32), Stoudemire (63), Mozgov (33)
RESULT: +20 PF


PF PLAY - 14 DIVE
Once again this play is broken up with an interception, this time by a diving Murphy (Amare's man who got caught on the Moz screen). Something tells me this play isn't very effective.
RESULT: TURNOVER (Felton: 2)

PG PLAY - 21 FADE
Felton comes off double screen but doesn't have an open look. Instead he iso's around a bit before pulling up for a three that misses. Mozgov skies for an offensive board.
RESULT: MISS (Felton 0-2 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)

NO PLAY (OFF REB)
Moz resets to Gallinari on wing. Gallo dribbles to opposite side of the court, and rewards Moz by dishing it to him for a dunk on a basket cut. LOL, I wonder if the game actually counts that as a "Give and Go".
RESULT: SCORE (Mozgov 1-1 FG, 0-1 FT)

PF PLAY - 34 POST
Amare gets doubled and kicks it back out to Gallo. Gallo has a wideopen three but instead opts to put it on the floor and take an 18 foot jumper that goes in (much to my hair's delight).
RESULT: SCORE (Gallinari 3-5 FG, 1-2 3PT, 0-1 FT)

PG PLAY - 41 ROLL
Amare sets a pick and rolls before Felton uses it. Felton drives to basket, dishes out to Walker for an open three, but it misses.
RESULT: MISS (Walker 0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT)

PF PLAY - 24 POST
This play is designed to look like 25 Quick Post, but instead they swing it around to make it a 34 Post. Amare makes his move and gets fouled, count the basket. That's 3 fouls on Murphy btw.
RESULT: SCORE + FOUL (Stoudemire 4-6 FG, 1-2 FT)

PG PLAY - 12 FADE
Walker almost gets the pass to Felton intercepted. Walker recovers and gives it to Felton. Felton drives into the lane for a hop step layup.
RESULT: SCORE (Felton 1-3 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)

PF PLAY - 24 POST
Amare takes a faceup jumper that misses.
RESULT: MISS (Stoudemire 4-7 FG, 1-2 FT)

PF PLAY - 34 POST
Amare gets doubled, kicks it out to Gallinari who dribbles to mid-court to take a drifting jumper that misses.
RESULT: MISS (Gallinari 3-6 FG, 1-2 3PT, 0-1 FT)

FASTBREAK (Cherry picking, actually)
Mozgov gets a head start on Lopez after a made shot. Felton recognizes and hits Moz for a cross court pass and a dunk.
RESULT: SCORE (Mozgov 2-2 FG, 1-2 FT)

FASTBREAK
Missed shot lets Felton outlet to Gallinari. Defense makes Gallo pick up his dribble, but he forces a shot and gets fouled.
RESULT: FOUL (Gallinari 3-6 FG, 1-2 3PT, 1-3 FT)

SUBSTITUTION
Randolph for Stoudemire
Turiaf for Mozgov

KNICKS LINEUP
Felton (69), Chandler (31), Gallinari (32), Randolph (41), Mozgov (43)
RESULT: SG +24, -22 PF, +10 C


PG PLAY - 1 DOUBLE
Play never starts as Felton gives it to Chandler. Chandler's man goes for steal so he has clear path to the basket. Drives in but gets blocked.
RESULT: MISS (Chandler 1-3 FG)

FASTBREAK
Gallinari gets steal, hits breaking Chandler for a clear path dunk.
RESULT: SCORE (Chandler 2-4 FG)

TIMEOUT - 5:50

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Chandler never gives it to Turiaf because Chandler's man is stuck behind posting Turiaf and his defender. Chandler has an open three, but instead fakes for NO REASON (hello computer, there is no defender!) and takes a dribble forward to take a two. Unfortunately, Chandler's defender is able to recover because of the fake and the fact that he stepped forward. The shot is semi-contested and misses.
RESULT: MISS (Chandler 2-5 FG)

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Turiaf posts up on Johan Petro, evading him for an easy shot. I know post defense ratings are low because I haven't adjusted them yet, and that these plays need to be updated so Turiaf isn't posting up everytime a play is run for him, but the fact that he can do this so consistently is really maddening.
RESULT: SCORE (Turiaf 2-3 FG, 2-2 FT)

NO PLAY - CLEAROUT
Felton gets a clearout. Chandler comes over to get a pass, and turns to face the basket. Anthony Morrow DOES NOT MOVE on the turn, he just stands there, so Chandler has a clear path to the basket, and dunks it.
RESULT: SCORE (Chandler 3-6 FG)

FASTBREAK
Chandler gets an outlet, Morrow recovers but Chandler forces it up and draws a foul, count the basket.
RESULT: SCORE + FOUL (Chandler 4-7 FG, 0-1 FT)

SUBSTITUTIONS
Douglas for Felton
Mason for Gallinari

KNICKS LINEUP
Douglas (60), Mason (58), Chandler (31), Randolph (41), Turiaf (43)
RESULT: -9 PG, +27 SG, -1 SF


NO PLAY
Douglas tries to push for a break but nothing comes of it. He dribbles around for a bit and takes a three that Randolph rebounds.
RESULT: MISS (Douglas 1-2 FG, 1-2 3PT)

NO PLAY - OFF REB
Randolph rebounds and resets to Chandler, who pulls up for a 22 foot jumper on the wing.
RESULT: SCORE (Chandler 5-8 FG, 0-1 FT)

TIMEOUT - 3:24

SG PLAY - 23 UP
Mason's defender gets hit by both screens but still recovers. For once, Mason doesn't pull up for the shot. He takes a couple dribbles, does that fake turnaround shot thing, then dishes to Randolph who is open behind him. Randolph dribbles from the left side to the right to take a drifting off balance jumper that misses. Instead of just pulling up for the open one that he had in the first place. This jumper crap is pretty annoying. Turiaf grabs the offensive board.
RESULT: MISS (Randolph 0-2 FG)

NO PLAY - OFF REB
Morrow pokes through Turiaf's leg to knock the ball away. HIGH FIVE FOR NON-SHOOTING FOULS!
RESULT: TURNOVER (Turiaf: 1)

SG PLAY - 23 UP
Again Mason doesn't take the shot off the catch, but instead takes a couple dribbles for a fade that misses.
RESULT: MISS (Mason 2-6 FG)

SG PLAY - 23 UP
Mason gets an open look and misses.
RESULT: MISS (Mason 2-7 FG)

SG PLAY - 23 UP
Mason gets an open look and hits it.
RESULT: SCORE (Mason 3-8 FG)

SG PLAY - 23 UP
Mason has no shot, dribbles it around, gives it up to open Douglas on wing (Harris was reaching for steal). Douglas has an open three, but instead dribbles closer. He actually dribbles past his defender and gets an open leaner from about 8 feet, but it misses.
RESULT: MISS (Douglas 1-3 FG, 1-2 3PT)

NO PLAY (Final play of qtr)
Douglas dribbles around and takes a three with 4 seconds left on the clock.
RESULT: MISS (Douglas 1-4 FG, 1-3 3PT)

END OF 2ND QUARTER
Chandler 10 pts, 19 mins (5-8 FG, 0-1 FT)
Stoudemire 9 pts, 14 mins (4-7 FG, 1-2 FT)
Gallinari 8 pts, 17 mins (3-6 FG, 1-2 3PT, 1-3 FT)
Mason 6 pts, 8 mins (3-8 FG)
Turiaf 6 pts, 14 mins (2-3 FG, 2-2 FT)
Mozgov 5 pts, 11 mins (2-2 FG, 1-2 FT)
Felton 4 pts, 17 mins (1-3 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Douglas 3 pts, 8 mins (1-4 FG, 1-3 3PT)
Walker 0 pts, 6 mins (0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT)
Randolph 0 pts, 11 mins (0-2 FG)

Okay, I'm done tracking play by play. Let's talk about the results and let the CPU run in the background.

IS AMARE FIXED?
Looks like it. Amare finally took a reasonable amount of shots, and even had the majority of the plays called for him. I'd still like to see a couple more isolations and drives, so we might need to keep upping the team's Attack Basket tendency.

WHY IS ROGER MASON A GO-TO-GUY?
It's not so much that Mason getting all these plays is a bad thing. The problem is all those plays are the exact same thing - a screen play. Mason ran pick and rolls in San Antonio, and that needs to be incorporated into his playbook. Of course, if Mason sees a decrease in P/R action in NY, that would be cause for lowering his Touches to Chandler/Gallinari levels. Which should fix that problem.

WHY ARE SO MANY JUMPERS MISSING?
This is technically not a problem. I'm okay with missed jumpers. The problem is the CPU is passing up open shots to take lower-quality momentum shots, solely because the tendencies are telling them to. This is just bad basketball that is being forced upon us. It's another area that will have to be tested with, though the issue isn't nearly as pressing as this touches issue.

WHY ARE SO MANY POST SHOTS GOING IN?
Basically, post defense in this game is near useless. The defense is at the mercy of the offense, and there are few counters. It certainly doesn't help that most players have underrated post defense.

WHY ARE THERE SO MANY AND ONES?
I'm guessing that "Hard Foul" tendency needs to be raised for more players. Players are getting contact and never even have to make an adjustment to their shots. It would also be cool if the CPU would actually commit a reach in foul, over the back, etc, which they have yet to do in any of my sims. Every foul has been a shooting foul (or an intentional foul at the end of the 4th).

END OF GAME BOX (pts-reb-ast-stl-blk-to-pf-mins)
Mozgov: 5-6-0-0-2-1-3-26 (2-4 FG, 1-2 FT)
Stoudemire: 26-11-4-1-0-1-2-35 (10-21 FG, 6-9 FT)
Gallinari: 13-1-2-2-0-2-0-34 (5-11 FG, 2-4 3PT, 1-3 FT)
Chandler: 21-5-4-0-0-1-1-37 (8-14 FG, 1-1 3PT, 4-5 FT)
Felton: 13-2-7-3-0-31-36 (5-8 FG, 0-2 3PT, 3-4 FT)
BENCH
Randolph: 0-4-2-0-3-0-2-17 (0-3 FG)
Douglas: 11-0-4-0-0-0-0-13 (4-8 FG, 2-4 3PT, 1-1 FT)
Turiaf: 6-4-0-0-2-1-1-17 (2-3 FG, 2-2 FT)
Mason: 6-2-1-0-0-0-0-17 (3-10 FG, 0-1 3PT)
Walker: 3-2-0-0-0-1-1-13 (1-3 FG, 1-2 3PT)

TEAM STATS
104 pts
40-85 FG (47%)
6-14 3PT (42%)
18-26 FT (69%)
24 ast, 10 TO
40 Paint pts

Excellent. All that has to be done now is fix playbooks and these results are golden.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great work man. I hope somebody applies these eventual changes to a PC roster.

Lemme just change topic for a bit and talk about Mozgov.

Have you seen him play recently? He's improved quite a bit.

Here's a great play from him. Swatting Pierce's layup while covering him the length of the floor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSMyB9-gbxE

I think he could be a great player for the Knicks.

Rashidi said...

I think Mozgov is what the Knicks were expecting when they picked up Darko Milicic. Darko definitely never got the opportunity Mozgov is getting though, that's for sure.

I'm guessing it has to do with Moz's athletic advantages, he's much better on the P&R than Darko. They are both fairly similar defensively though (which is a compliment to both players).

He doesn't need to be a star. He just needs to set picks, block shots, and put down dunks. That's his role and he'll do it well - similar to what Andris Biedrins has been giving the Warriors the last few years.

He's shown more mental toughness (and physical toughness) than Anthony Randolph so far (though Randolph obviously has more star potential), which is a big reason why he's guaranteed so many minutes early.

Nathan said...

Great work!

Anonymous said...

so your going to edit playbooks?
b'c you said previously u would not. i was hoping you would change your mind.

also did you ever decide on the whole '2k's latest roster fixes gameplay' thing?

once your done testing and it's just a matter of editing tendencies/etc for all teams,how long until you incorporate SYNERGY?
-you could do two teams at a time and allow us to test?-

no rush, as i think alot of ballas are waiting for a patch for association.
also looking forward to your ol' school team edits if your still doing them.
thanks for everything.

Jack Swagger said...

very cool results the second go round.

I got two questions

Where did you get your usage rates from. I know for sure Stoudemire had a higher rate than Felton. Just Askin.

And did you edit anything else or just the touches tendency?

Once again great job.