Saturday, October 16, 2010

Editing Touch Tendency, part 1

In part 1 of my quest to adjust "touches" and fix the gameplay, I made my touches adjustments and NOTHING ELSE. No other ratings. tendencies, or coach profile edits. Just touches.

My changes (and reasoning) were as follows.

Felton 71 - Runs a lot of P/R... and the team's offense
Mason 67 - Actually runs P/R a lot for a SG, also comes off screens a lot.
Turiaf 61 - Majority of offense comes from P/R
Douglas 60 - Another P/R player
Stoudemire 42 - Usually a roll man, but also goes one on one quite a bit.
Gallinari 35 - Will get some plays but usually stands around waiting for a kickout.
Mozgov 32 - This was just a guess based on how much P/R I think he'll run.
Chandler 31 - Honestly I don't recall many plays for Chandler except watching him go one on one and what not.
Randolph 29 - Doesn't set many picks/screens due to his lanky frame; mostly a one on one kinda guy.

I went strictly off Synergy data and did not adjust for usage, which helps explain why Turiaf's plays are higher than Amare. This is not exactly inaccurate in a perfect world, but the 2K world we currently live in is far from perfect.

Touches is going to affect the plays that the team runs. As I mentioned before, I justified Ronny Turiaf having a high touches tendency because of the pick and rolls. Will that actually lead to pick and rolls? We need to see what sets these guys are going to be running now.

KNICK STARTING PG (Raymond Felton)
1 Double
41 Roll
21 Fade - Comes off double screen for cross court pass and elbow three. Likely a Chris Duhon favorite.
1 Double Roll

SUMMARY: Felton's plays are pick plays that should lead to the team getting involved more than himself. Pretty realistic set and represents Mike D'Antoni's offense well.

KNICK BENCH PG (Toney Douglas)
31 Roll - This is actually a 21 Roll. It was my favorite play when the Knicks still had Nate Robinson, even more deadly when they had Jamal Crawford too.
2 Double
23 Up - Comes off C screen for catch/shoot three.

SUMMARY: Douglas' plays by contrast are more offensive minded, which is pretty realistic. Knicks backup PGs in the D'Antoni era have been Nate Robinson and Toney Douglas, so this is also somewhat accurate.

KNICK STARTING SG (Wilson Chandler)
12 Post
2 Double
12 Over
42 Swing Roll - This play is completely mislabeled. It is actually a 43 Swing Roll. The SG is the only one that doesn't even touch the ball on this play.

SUMMARY: This set represents Chandler's versatility fairly well. He can post, drive (with a double screen), or come off a screen for a jumper. The 42 Swing Roll is not his play, and should be listed for Gallinari.

KNICK BENCH SG (Roger Mason, Bill Walker)
23 Post
42 Roll
12 Over
42 Swing Roll - As with before, this is not a SG play.

SUMMARY: Same as Chandler except we have a P/R play instead of a driving play. That's accurate for Mason, not so much for Walker. I would take out Swing Roll and put the 2 Double in for Walker's purposes. In addition, I would also give Chandler the 42 Roll because he also uses pick and roll sometimes.

KNICK STARTING SF (Danilo Gallinari)
23 Up - SF on wing, comes off C screen for top of key three.
13 Ice - Iso clearout
43 Roll
13 Up

SUMMARY: I don't really like 13 Ice for Gallinari - it's definitely more of a Chandler play. The rest is all good, mostly screen plays to get Gallinari perimeter looks, and a mid/drive play with the 43 Roll.

KNICK BENCH SF (Wilson Chandler)
13 Ice
13 Up
23 Up Double
23 Post

SUMMARY: Not a bad secondary set for Chandler, it keeps some of Gallo's plays while also tossing in a drive play and post play.

KNICK STARTING PF (Amare Stoudemire)
14 Dive
34 Post
24 Post
54 Screen - PF running a P/R, from top of 3pt line.

SUMMARY: Two P/R plays, and two Post plays. I am not a fan of 54 Screen in the slightest. It's actually a very effective play, and made a little more sense for David Lee (over the last 7 games when they added Earl Barron). Amare ran a P/R only twice last season, so clearly this is not a realistic play for him. It's not that Amare can't do this play, he's just better off starting closer to the basket (whereas a guy like Lee needed the extra space to create separation from the defender).

KNICK BENCH PF (Anthony Randolph)
34 Post

SUMMARY: Only one play and it's a post up. Completely unrealistic for Randolph.

KNICK STARTING C (Timofey Mozgov)
35 post 2
35 Post
25 Quick Post
25 Iso

SUMMARY: Mostly post plays which is good for Mozgov. The Iso play is clearly for Amare/Lee/Randolph moreso than a stiff (and thus can be swapped out w/ Moz or Turiaf likely drawing the start this year). There are no roll plays though, which Moz needs to have.

KNICK BENCH C (Ronny Turiaf)
25 Quick Post

SUMMARY: Completely unrealistic for Turiaf, as he only gets 9% of his offense from the post. Knick centers have no P/R plays which is not representative of D'Antoni's offense. Yes, they have some sets via Felton, but surely there has to be some C related variations. If Amare has a 14 Dive, no reason the centers shouldn't have a 15 Dive.


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So, adjusting "touches" is only one part of the solution - we need to adjust playbooks as well. I kept Turiaf's touches high, but it's not going to result in the desired effect - if anything, it runs counter to what we're looking for (more P/R's, not more post ups).

Still, I press on, because this is an important test, and there are other tendencies at play that will be working with these adjusted touches anyway.

I pick the Nets as NY's opponent. For intents and purposes, I will not be charting any of their plays as I'm only focusing on the Knicks.

FIRST QUARTER

PG PLAY - DOUBLE 1
Felton uses picks by Amare and Mozgov and drives to basket. Outlaw rotates so Felton gives up to Gallinari. Gallo uses a couple moves and draws contact on a pull up. He'll shoot two FTs.
PLAY RESULT: Gallinari 2-2 FT

SG PLAY - 12 POST
Felton dribbles ball to right side. Chandler is calling for it in the post but Felton opts to swing it to Gallo for a stepback jumper that misses.
RESULT: Gallinari 0-1 FG

NO PLAY
Amare sets two picks for Felton (via Freelance). Felton uses the 2nd but can't get a step on Harris. Gives it Gallo on elbow who takes a turnaround jumper that misses.
RESULT: Gallinari 0-2 FG

NO PLAY
Amare sets a pick that Felton uses and drives into the paint. Heavily contested so dishes to Mozgov who almost puts home the two-handed layup.
RESULT: Mozgov 0-1 FG

NO PLAY
Knicks swing it around, Gallinari comes to take a three at the top.
RESULT: Gallinari 0-3 FG, 0-1 3PT

PG PLAY - 21 Fade
Felton gives to Chandler on elbow, comes off two screens (Amare/Mozgov), catches and pulls up for a three that misses.
RESULT: Felton 0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT

MASON SUBS IN FOR GALLINARI - 2 fouls on Gallo. Chandler slides to SF

NO PLAY
Felton swings to Amare, swings to Mason, who hits a three.
RESULT: Mason 1-1 FG, 1-1 3PT

NO PLAY
Chandler on wing. Amare sets a pick that Chandler uses. Murphy rotates over. Chandler hits open Turiaf who gets fouled.
RESULT: Turiaf 2-2 FT

NO PLAY
Knicks swing it around a bit. Mason takes an open three, but he fadesaway for some reason, and airballs it.
RESULT: Mason 1-2 FG, 1-2 3PT

NO PLAY
Knicks pass it around. Dump it to Turiaf in the post. Turiaf swings it cross court to Mason. Nets go for steal but miss, Mason fades and puts in a two (foot on 3pt line).
RESULT: Mason 2-3 FG

NO PLAY
Mason brings it up after a missed FT. Hands it off to Felton who dishes to Chandler on the wing. Chandler pulls up for a jumper that misses.
RESULT: Chandler 0-1 FG

NO PLAY
Felton in the corner gets a pick from Amare. Amare gets free so Felton gives it to him. Amare starts to drive so Lopez rotates over. Amare passes to Turiaf for a contested layup that he gets fouled on. Count the basket.
RESULT: Turiaf 1-1 FG, 3-3 FT

AMARE SUBS OUT FOR RANDOLPH - I don't like this one bit. He has yet to take a shot (though he has been a very active screener and passer, w/ 2 of team's 3 assists). He would never sub out 6 mins into the game in real life.

NO PLAY
Felton gives to Randolph at top. Randolph isos and gives to Turiaf for FT line post. Turiaf hands off to Randolph again Randolph who takes a 10 foot jumper that is blocked by Lopez.
RESULT: Randolph 0-1 FG

NO PLAY
Felton gives to Chandler, who then tries to pass to Mason but it was easily intercepted by Randolph's man who was definitely playing the passing lane instead of Randolph.
RESULT: Chandler 1 TO

NO PLAY
Felton essentially gets an Iso called for him. He drives and gets a hopstep layup.
RESULT: Felton 1-2 FG

TURIAF SUBS OUT FOR MOZGOV - 2 fouls on Turiaf

NO PLAY
Chandler brings the ball up after a missed FT and takes it himself at Devin Harris for an And 1 layup.
RESULT: Chandler 1-2 FG, 0-1 FT

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
Mason uses a Mozgov screen to get an open mid-range jumper from Felton.
RESULT: Mason 3-4 FG

NO PLAY
Mason rebounds and brings it up. Felton sets a pick but Mason can't use it. Felton rolls to the basket and Mason hits him with a pass. It's not a clean catch so the D recovers. Felton fakes a shot, goes up for a layup, and gets it swatted out of bounds.
RESULT: Felton 1-3 FG

NO PLAY
Randolph gets the inbound pass intercepted.
RESULT: Randolph 1 TO

SG PLAY - 12 OVER
Mason uses Mozgov/Randolph screens for another open mid-range jumper.
RESULT: Mason 4-5 FG

NO PLAY
Felton brings it up, gives to Chandler. Chandler Isos for a bit but can't make anything happen. Gives it to Mason on the block. Mason posts up Morrow but misses the shot.
RESULT: Mason 4-6 FG

NO PLAY
Mini fastbreak but the defense recovers. Felton essentially gets a clear out but gets blocked on his drive.
RESULT: Felton 1-4 FG

FASTBREAK
Mason brings the ball up after a rebound. Nobody picks him up so he sets and launches a three. It misses.
RESULT: Mason 4-7 FG, 1-3 3PT

NO PLAY
Mason has the ball for the final shot of the quarter. Felton sets a pick that Mason uses. Mason pulls out a double cross, goes left and takes a drifting mid-range shot that is contested. It's a Kobe-esque shot that GOES IN with 0.6 on the clock.
RESULT: Mason 5-8 FG

END OF FIRST QUARTER
Mason: 9 points, 9 minutes (5-8 FG, 1-3 3PT)
Turiaf: 5 points, 6 minutes (1-1 FG, 3-3 FT)
Chandler: 2 points, 12 minutes (1-2 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2 TO)
Felton: 2 points, 12 minutes (1-4 FG, 0-1 3PT)
Gallinari: 2 points, 4 minutes (0-3 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Stoudemire: 0 points, 7 minutes (0-0 FG)
Mozgov: 0 points, 7 minutes (0-1 FG)
Randolph: 0 points, 6 minutes (0-1 FG, 1 TO)

RECAP - Gotta keep going because we need to see if Amare gets involved at all or if it was just a fluke. Mason acted as the go-to guy when Amare hit the bench, but it's hard to complain when it was clearly working. Let's move on to the 2nd quarter.

DOUGLAS SUBS IN FOR FELTON - Felton played whole quarter. No problem.
WALKER SUBS IN FOR MASON - Not a sub I'd make w/ Mason carrying the team, but 9 mins is somewhat of a heavy load for the 30 year old.
GALLINARI SUBS IN FOR CHANDLER - Chandler played whole quarter and Gallinari is rested. No prob.

NO PLAY
Douglas brings up ball, drives in a bit but defense forces him to pick up dribble. Gives it to Gallinari who Isos for a bit, dancing around before stepping back to the 3pt line for a three. It misses.
RESULT: Gallinari 0-4 FG, 0-2 3PT

PG PLAY - 31 Roll
Walker uses a Douglas pick, Isos, drives for a drifer that misses.
RESULT: Walker 0-1 FG

PG PLAY - 23 Up
Gallinari at top w/ ball, Douglas on wing. Douglas comes off Mozgov screen to the top to take a three that misses. Defense wasn't really stopped by the screen so it was a semi-contested three.
RESULT: Douglas 0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT

NO PLAY
Fastbreak. Gallinari uses his length to take it over Farmar for a layup.
RESULT: Gallinari 1-5 FG

PG PLAY - 31 Roll
It took me awhile to realize this was the play, because Gallinari technically started the play. Gallo gave it to Walker, who then got a pick from Douglas. Walker used it, but had the ball slapped away by Farmar
RESULT: None

INBOUNDS PLAY?
I think the Knicks ran an inbounds play (Walker was setting a screen but Gallinari caught the pass before having to use it). Gallinari took it himself for a drifting fade from the opposite FT elbow. It goes in.
RESULT: Gallinari 2-6 FG

NO PLAY
Mozgov had a mismatch with Farmar in the post. Felton recognizes it and Mozgov scores easily.
RESULT: Mozgov 1-2 FG

MASON SUBS IN FOR WALKER
STOUDEMIRE SUBS IN FOR RANDOLPH
TURIAF SUBS IN FOR MOZGOV

NO PLAY
Turiaf is posting up on an inbound (NY Timeout). Amare overthrows it by about 10 feet. Coach has to be pleased.
RESULT: Stoudemire 1 TO

SG PLAY - 42 ROLL
Amare sets a pick but Mason can't use it... or hit the rolling Amare. Mason Isos, drives in, and gets fouled.
RESULT: Mason 2-2 FT

PG PLAY - 23 Up
Douglas comes off a screen but again can't lose Farmar, and takes a semi-contested three that misses.
RESULT: Douglas 0-2 FG, 0-2 3PT

FASTBREAK
Douglas pushes it, gives to slashing Gallinari who gets fouled on a drive.
RESULT: Gallinari 3-4 FT

C PLAY - 25 Quick Post
Felton to Amare at top, Amare to Mason on wing, Mason dumps to Turiaf on block, Turiaf hits turnaround jumper
RESULT: Turiaf 2-2 FG

FASTBREAK
Douglas has a 3 on 2 break... until Gallinari opts to just stand at the 3pt line. Douglas ends up taking a stepback 8 footer that misses.
RESULT: Douglas 0-3 FG

SG PLAY - 42 Swing Roll
They swing it for Gallinari (as mentioned before, this is a SG play but is really a SF play). Gallinari takes a jumper before the pick comes, and misses it (foot on 3pt line).
RESULT: Gallinari 2-7 FG

FASTBREAK
Gallinari brings up after a rebound. He thinks about driving in but retreats back to the 3pt line. For another missed three.
RESULT: Galinari 2-8 FG, 0-2 3PT

NO PLAY
At least, I'm pretty sure there was no play. Mason brought up the ball to the wing. Passed it to Felton. Mason runs baseline to other side of court. Outlaw somehow runs into Turiaf who was calling for it in the post on Lopez, which frees Mason up for an open three that he misses.
RESULT: Mason 5-9 FG, 1-4 3PT

FASTBREAK
Technically not a fastbreak, but I'll count it as such because the defense was never set. Mason brought up the ball, hands off to Douglas, who gets a free lane to the basket because three Nets collide with each other (who says the defense is smarter in this game?). Douglas gets a layup, and the foul.
RESULT: Douglas 1-4 FG, 1-1 FT

CHANDLER SUBS IN FOR MASON

NO PLAY
Once again NJ defenders collide (w/ posting Turiaf again) which gets Chandler an open mid-range shot that he misses.
RESULT: Chandler 1-3 FG

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Chandler dumps to Turiaf who gets fouled on a post up.
RESULT: Turiaf 4-5 FT

FASTBREAK
Chandler hits Gallinari for a transition dunk.
RESULT: Gallinari 3-9 FG

NO PLAY?
Couldn't figure if this was a play or not. I thought it was 1 Double, but the SG is supposed to be at the elbow and instead was on the wing. SG then came off a Turiaf screen to get a jumper.
RESULT

C PLAY - 25 QUICK POST
Turiaf misses a turnaround jumper.
RESULT: Turiaf 2-3 FG

NO PLAY
Douglas tried to push it but the defense stopped him at the FT line. He dishes to Amare, who must have been blood thirsty at this point, goes up and gets fouled, and one.
RESULT: Stoudemire 1-1 FG, 1-1 FT

FELTON SUBS IN FOR DOUGLAS
MOZGOV SUBS IN FOR TURIAF

NO PLAY
Felton gets a clear out for an Isolation. Drives in, dishes to Chandler for a fadeaway that goes in.
RESULT: Chandler 2-4 FG

SF PLAY - 23 UP
Gallinari comes off a screen for a three, misses it.
RESULT: Gallinari 3-10 FG, 0-3 3PT

UNKNOWN PLAY (Possibly 1 Double?)
Amare and Mozgov set double picks for Felton. Felton uses them and dishes to Mozgov at FT line. Mozgov posts up but hands off to Felton (probably should have been a steal though since Felton displaced the defender on the pass catch. Felton takes a FT line fadeaway that goes in.
RESULT: Felton 2-5 FG

UNKNOWN PLAY (Same as before)
Amare and Mozgov set picks for Felton. Felton uses them, ends up on baseline. Amare rotates over and Amare hits him for a mid-range jumper that goes in.
RESULT: Stoudemire 2-2 FG

END OF SECOND QUARTER
Mason: 13 points, 1 assist, 13 minutes (5-9 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Gallinari: 9 points, 16 minutes (3-10 FG, 0-3 3PT, 3-4 FT)
Turiaf: 8 points, 1 assist, 2 blocks, 12 minutes (2-3 FG, 4-5 FT)
Stoudemire: 5 points, 2 assists, 1 TO, 15 minutes (2-2 FG, 1-1 FT)
Chandler: 4 points, 1 assist, 2 TO, 17 minutes (2-5 FG, 0-1 3PT)
Felton: 4 points, 4 assists, 15 minutes (2-5 FG, 0-1 3PT)
Douglas: 3 points, 2 assists, 10 minutes (1-4 FG, 0-2 3PT, 1-1 FT)
Mozgov: 2 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist (1-2 FG)
Walker: 0 points, 4 minutes (0-1 FG)
Randolph: 0 points, 1 TO, 10 minutes (0-1 FG)

TEAM STATS
18-42 FG (42%)
1-11 3PT (9%)
11-14 FT (78%)
12/4 Ast/TO
20 Paint points
24 Bench points
0 Second Chance points (0 offensive boards)
6 Fast Break Points

RECAP: Well, Amare FINALLY took two shots late in the quarter. Knicks also ran more plays despite having more fastbreak opportunities. We also saw the Knicks run a play that wasn't in their playboook - that's an extremely interesting development. Now we need to get to the meat of this analysis (I'm also going to let the CPU play in the background and finish out the game).

DID MY TOUCHES CHANGES WORK?
Yes and no. Let's revisit them.

71 Felton
67 Mason
61 Turiaf
60 Douglas
42 Stoudemire
35 Gallinari
32 Mozgov
31 Chandler
29 Randolph

The top 4 guys all got theirs. Felton had 5 shots and 4 assists in 15 minutes. Mason got the majority of his points via plays. Douglas had 4 shots and 2 assists in 10 minutes. Turiaf had 3 shots and 2 trips to the FT line in 12 minutes, which is acceptable if we pretend his post shots were roll plays.

After that, things get messy. Amare Stoudemire didn't have a single play called for him the entire half. Normally we could blame this on Touches, or that I'm a pompous fool for thinking I had a touches system in place. However, thanks to Amare and this test, we've learned that TOUCHES IS NOT THE PROBLEM. Gallinari and Chandler had even lower Touch tendencies than Amare and they had multiple plays called for them! Gallinari even lead the team in shots!

How is this possible? The answer is simple: There are other tendencies at play here.

The CPU has finished playing, so let's head to the final stats for some confirmation on this little theory of mine.

KNICKS FINAL BOX - Pts-Reb-Ast-Stl-Blk-TO-Fls-Mins)
Mozgov: 7-6-1-0-0-0-2-22 (3-5 FG, 1-4 FT)
Stoudemire: 16-13-3-0-0-1-3-35 (7-10 FG, 2-2 FT)
Gallinari: 17-7-0-0-0-1-3-35 (6-20 FG, 2-6 3PT, 3-4 FT)
Chandler: 12-2-4-1-0-2-2-35 (5-8 FG, 2-3 3PT, 0-1 FT)
Felton: 13-1-11-0-0-1-2-32 (6-10 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-1 FT)

Douglas: 9-0-5-0-0-0-1-22 (2-7 FG, 0-2 3PT, 5-5 FT)
Randolph: 2-5-1-0-2-1-1-19 (1-2 FG)
Turiaf: 12-5-1-0-3-0-2-19 (3-7 FG, 6-7 FT)
Mason: 13-0-1-0-0-0-1-13 (5-9 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Walker: 9-2-0-1-0-0-1-13 (3-6 FG, 3-4 3PT)

Amare ended up coming through with 11 second half points and 8 shots. Actually, all his scoring came in the 4th quarter. Lets see how he did it.

Layup via handoff (plus foul)
12 foot jumper off entry from Randolph (Amare playing center)
Offensive rebound, shot underneath.
Douglas to Amare for 15 foot spotup.
Offensive rebound, standing dunk.

None of these were via plays, but his teammates did look to involve him more than they did in the first half when Gallinari was just settling for any jumper he could get. No Postups, no Isos. Everything was assisted except the putbacks.

What's really ironic is to start the 3rd quarter Mozgov had two consecutive alley-oop dunks via pick and roll. Amare seriously couldn't get in on this all game?

All of Raymond Felton's scoring in the 2nd half came on drives and fastbreaks - no plays (despite the highest Touch rating on the team). Toney Douglas, same thing. His two made shots were open layups where the defense totally collapsed. He ran plays in the 1st half, but it didn't yield any quality looks.

Chandler had a post up (no play) and two spot up threes created by Felton's dribble penetration. Anyone else get the distinct feeling that plays actually HURT team offense and are the reason for decreased FG% this year?

Gallinari got an open three thanks to a successful P/R by Felton/Amare. Followed this up with an Iso three in Travis Outlaw's grill. He then got a FT line jumper thanks to Felton's Iso skills on a PG clearout. He didn't score again. He missed 14 shots total, 7 in each half.

Roger Mason did not play in the second half despite leading the team in scoring and playing extremely well. Tell me the last time that's ever happened? Mason got extra 1st half minutes due to Gallinari's foul trouble, but the game opted to give Walker all the 2nd half minutes to make sure they balanced out (I had both set at 12 minutes), while Gallinari still played his customary minutes even though he missed time due to the fouls (actually, he played more, I believe I had him set at 32 and he played 35 despite the early foul woe). The game should be smart enough to know to stick with a player that is hot (though, in a semi-defense of the game, Bill Walker also did very well in the 2nd half). Still, that should have meant Walker's minutes were coming at Gallo's expense (esp since he was a dreadful 6-20 from the field). Yet another example of how 2K's rotation/sim engine is unrealistic/broken, but that's a story for another day.

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Now, looking at those stats & play results, I'd say I'm on to something here with this touch tendency. The Knicks offered balanced scoring as 6 players finished in double figures. As I said before, I did not account for usage while forming my touch tendencies, so that could very easily be the solution. Still, there is an issue that needs to be addressed.

Amare took 10 fewer shots than a player who had both a lower touch tendency and a lower shot tendency. There is a reason for this, and we need to look deeper. Let's review the rest of their tendencies and see what we find.

Stoudemire
Shot 89
Inside 86
Close 26
Mid 28
3pt 0
Drive 77

Gallinari
Shot 56
Inside 22
Close 7
Mid 21
3pt 57
Drive 46

Amare has a high shot tendency and a high Inside shot tendency, but he was never really getting the ball inside. Actually, most of his shots came from close/mid. Conversely, Gallinari took plenty of Close/Mid shots despite having lower shooting tendencies from each area.

Amare
Use Pick 5
Set Pick 92
Isolation 94
Off Screen 30
Set Screen 60
Post Up 84
Spot Up 12
Self Post 5

Gallinari
Use Pick 52
Set Pick 50
Isolation 20
Off Screen 50
Set Screen 25
Post Up 12
Spot Up 91
Self Post 12

Amare spent a great deal of time setting picks, and I wonder if his high tendency in this area lead to him taking himself out of the offense (canceling out his high Iso and Post tendencies). It is also worth noting that Amare never called for the ball in the post - most likely because his Self Post tendency is EXTREMELY low. The average PF has 39, and even Gallinari is higher. Perhaps if Amare were calling for the ball more frequently, he'd have been more involved.

Regardless, this still paints a murky picture. We need more information, because the team ran contrary to how the players were geared to behave. This sounds like a team slider issue.

KNICKS STRATEGY
Run Plays 10
Inside 43
Close 30
Mid 42
3pt 57
Attack Basket 10
Look for Post 60

Knicks are obviously looking for threes a lot, but perhaps a higher Inside tendency would create a more realistic balance.

Knicks actually ran a fair amount of plays despite only having a 10 tendency. Still, one has to think this didn't help Amare if we're lowering him. They also have a very low Attack Basket tendency, which runs contrary to Amare's high Drive tendency.

60 also might seem high for "Look for Post Players", but it's actually 6th worst in the league, only ahead of Sixers (43), Bobcats (43), Bucks (57), Bulls (50), and Magic (50). The top teams are Spurs (95), Grizzlies (92), Suns (90), Warriors (90), Hawks (87), Cavaliers (86), and Hornets (86). The Suns and Warriors make some curious appearances here. The Suns are Amare's old team, and they replaced him with Hedo Turkoglu and Hakim Warrick. They obviously won't be looking to post up this year, and I'm willing to bet the Knicks need that 90 tendency to maximize Amare's talents, otherwise all the guards will take all the shots. The Warriors are even more curious because they were not a post team at all last season, and even though Don Nelson is gone, their only post option is David Lee... who is the player who likely earned the Knicks a low Post tendency in the first place.

Thus, what we've learned is that just editing touches does not provide a solution. We need to edit other tendencies, and perhaps more importantly, we need to edit coach profiles. The next step for me will be making all those adjustments and running another test (I may or may not adjust "touches" for usage rate. I could run two different tests.)

Kudos to any who actually made it through the article in one piece. If you are a female and made it this far, you may be my soul mate. Email me. Please. After writing this crap for god knows how long, I need love.

BUT WAIT THERES MORE!!!!!!!!
Here's some Nets stats w/ default tendencies so we can reiterate why we're having these tests and experiments in the first place.
Brook Lopez: 39 points, 16-29 FG, 7-9 FT
Devin Harris: 15 points, 3-10 FG, 0-2 3PT, 9-10 FT
Troy Murphy: 10 points, 4-5 FG, 2-2 FT
Anthony Morrow: 10 points, 3-7 FG, 2-4 3PT, 2-2 FT
Travis Outlaw: 9 points, 3-20 FG, 1-7 3PT, 2-2 FT

Terrible. I need to eat something.

17 comments:

Benicio10 said...

Keep up the good work. I'm interested to see how you will isolate these variables (team and player tendencies) to see how each works.

Anonymous said...

Great work man! You dedication and knowledge is top notch. 2k should've hired you years ago, hopefully one day they will. Keep it up.

Anonymous said...

Have you thought about using "Possessions" in your formula to come up with "Touches"

Rashidi said...

Have you thought about using "Possessions" in your formula to come up with "Touches"

That's what I meant about implementing usage. I didn't do that yet, but I did add my ratings and tendencies, which brought quite different results.

Randolph: 26 pts, 12 reb, 4 blk (11-15 FG, 4-4 FT)
Chandler: 17 pts, 4 reb, 4 ast (7-12 FG, 0-1 3PT, 3-6 FT)
Gallinari: 16 pts, 6 reb (6-14 FG, 2-5 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Stoudemire: 15 pts, 12 reb (7-10 FG, 1-2 FT)
Azubuike: 13 pts (5-9 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Felton: 9 pts, 16 ast, 3 stls (3-7 FG, 0-2 3PT, 3-6 FT)
Douglas: 8 pts, 4 ast (4-13 FG, 0-4 3PT)
Turiaf: 7 pts, 8 reb (3-8 FG, 1-3 FT)

I forgot to fix depth charts before the game so I'm a little annoyed Azubuike played and Mason/Walker didn't... because I didn't bother to update his ratings/tendencies.

Randolph was the primary scorer in this one, which proves I've nerfed touches - I gave him 29 which was lowest on the team.

Now I didn't watch the game but what concerns me is that looking at Gametrack, it doesn't look like the Knicks scored even once using a play. Given their low coach profile for it, it's possible that was a factor, but also just as possible that they simply didn't score anytime they used a play (highlighting their inefficiency).

Randolph did most of his scoring on fastbreaks. I believe this was partially due to a speed advantage that his opponents didn't share because I only edited one team. I will need to edit the second team's ratings this time around to see if that makes a difference.

Actually, just noticed Randolph started and played 35 minutes, and did so at PF. So that probably helps explain his line compared to last game where he only took 2 shots off the bench. I will need to adjust the rotation next time.

All in all though, very promising advances.

Rashidi said...

Turiaf didn't score from any post ups - it was all dump offs at the basket from Felton driving.

James said...

love the kudos comment at the conclusion of your article - great work rashidi - it seems like you've found the problem and what looks to be its solution!

Brandon said...

Would love if you ran the same test with updated coaching sliders.

Anonymous said...

keep up the OUTSTANDING work bro, people need to start realizing the work you put in.

thanks again

Anonymous said...

this is absolutely great work. testing is tiresome and frustrating so i hope you know their are people that truly appreciate what you do.

Rashidi said...

Minor update to the coach sliders
+30 Look for Post
+10 Attack Basket

Chandler: 24 pts, 30 mins (8-14 FG, 2-3 3PT, 6-9 FT)
Mason: 16 pts, 17 mins (6-12 FG, 1-4 3PT, 3-4 FT)
Felton: 15 pts, 7 ast, 28 mins (5-7 FG, 1-1 3PT, 4-5 FT)
Stoudemire: 13 pts, 31 mins (5-6 FG, 3-3 FT)
Douglas: 13 pts, 3 ast, 23 mins (5-9 FG, 1-5 3PT, 2-2 FT)
Gallinari: 12 pts, 30 mins (4-12 FG, 0-4 3PT, 4-4 FT)
Randolph: 7 pts, 27 mins (3-8 FG, 1-3 FT)
Turiaf: 5 pts, 20 mins (2-6 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-1 FT)
Walker: 5 pts, 18 mins (2-4 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-2 3PT)
Ewing Jr: 4 pts, 5 mins (2-4 FG)
Mozgov: 2 pts, 16 mins (1-1 FG)

Chandler lead the team in scoring this time, and his touch tendency is 3rd lowest among the regulars.

Scoring is very balanced now, and it seems all I have to do now is adjust Touches for player's usage rates, because the only flaw we have is Amare not shooting at all now (obviously a big flaw, but its the only one)

It seems the coach changes had an effect on Gallinari as he was no longer launching jumpers with reckless abandon. Would have been nice to see some of those shots go to Amare, but it will come.

Ewing Jr strikes again. I didn't update his tendencies, only focusing on the rotation players because I was close to passing out at the time. 4 shots in 5 minutes while Amare took 6 in 30 minutes. This is exactly what I was talking about.

Chronz said...

Have they unbanned you at OS yet? I was looking forward to a season long back and forth exchange between you and I. Not that I dont like coming to your board but its easier at OS.

Anyways I just wanted to say Im impressed with how much youve accomplished in such a short amount of time, I wanted to ask permission to download your roster as the foundation to mine. I have no interest in creating a realistic sim vs the CPU, only in getting an accurate representation of the players ability in his ratings, but for the sake of the user I think he would appreciate your tendency ratings. I would credit you of course but the rating system will be drastically different.

PS Synergy is still running but Ive begun prnt screening the data just in case it gos down, if you havent done so already, your free to hit me up for them if Synergy ever gos away.

Rashidi said...

Ewing Jr had a post fadeaway reminiscent of Sr. Just another example of how broken posting up is in this game.

Douglas mostly scored on fastbreaks.

Randolph had one Iso and two baskets via offensive rebounds.

Turiaf had a fastbreak and offensive rebound.

Mozgov had a stepback drifter that was probably way too athletic for him.

Roger Mason had two and one layups, which is a problem because he RARELY gets fouled and RARELY drives. He's playing better than his ratings considering Gallinari always plays like crap. Probably need some tendency adjustments to both. It's worth noting that I had already given Mason an extremely low Shoot in Traffic rating.

Then again, Gallinari himself had two and one layups, and all four of his shots were inside the paint. There is something about his jumper that has to be broken because it seems like the CPU can never hit it whether he's guarded or open.

Amare didn't even score until the 3rd quarter. He had three and one drives, and this is honestly a huge pet peeve of mine in 2K. Amare lead the league in and ones, and he only averaged like one per game. Douglas, Gallinari, and Mason combined for 5, so that's 8 for the team so far. Totally unrealistic, and it's nerfing FTA because players should be getting 2 attempts far more often than 1.

Felton scored on drives and a three. No complaints about Felton; he is probably the most accurate player on the roster.

Chandler had three and one layups which brings the team total to 11. He scored mostly on drives but also had 2 threes and 2 postups. Would have been nice to see a mid-range shot, but Gametrack shows he did miss two shots from that range so it's okay.

Rashidi said...

Not that the Knicks didn't take a lot of FTs as it was - 33 to be exact, but that total should have been closer to 40.

Knicks
116 pts
43-83 FG (51%)
5-19 3PT (26%)
25-33 FT (75%)
15 ast, 10 TO
54 paint pts
50 bench pts
8 second chance pts
8 fast break pts

Knicks actually took more threes (19 to 14) when raising "look for post" and "attack basket". It just seems like the CPU settles for so many non-quality looks that it's limiting the makes (5-19 this time as opposed to 3-14). I only watched the 1st quarter of this game, and saw Turiaf go from a postup to a stepback three with the clock running down. What is wrong with the AI man? Actually, I have another theory related to that.

Rashidi said...

Amare Stoudemire
Finishing Move (Total of 100)
Hop Step 38
Spin Layup 2
Simple Drive 59
Eurostep 1

Post Moves (Total of 100)
Quick Spin 10
Drop Step 2
Step Through 10
Up and Under 4
Faceup 49
Backdown 13
No Move 12

Shot Type
Jumper 65
Leaner 5
Runner 75
Fadeaway 84
Drifter 35
Stepback Jumper 5
Pullup Jumper 5
Reverse Pivot 0

Notice anything?

Shot types aren't out of 100??? Weren't they last year before they added in all these new animations?

I believe that gives us a big gameplay problem, because for the most part these shots are lower accuracy than a standard jumper.

Danilo Gallinari
Jumper 50
Leaner 5
Runner 35
Fadeaway 77
Drifter 35
Stepback Jumper 99
Pullup Jumper 40
Reverse Pivot 59

This might explain why Gallo can't buy a jumper. They're all speciality rather than a straight pull up.

If this is true, it will be yet ANOTHER adjustment that needs to be made. 2K Sports must hate me or something.

Rashidi said...

Fun fact: I forgot to adjust Mason's touches so it was actually 36 for that previous test. He still took 12 shots in 17 mins.

Rashidi said...

New touch tendencies
Felton 68 (-3)
Stoudemire 63 (+21)
Douglas 60 (0)
Mason 58 (-9)
Curry 43 (+30)
Randolph 41 (+8)
Turiaf 34 (-27)
Gallinari 32 (-3)
Mozgov 32 (0)
Chandler 31 (0)
Rautin 20 (0)
Walker 7 (-9)

I am also boosting Amare's "Self Post" another 10 points.

Running another sim now. Time to cross our fingers. I would like to adjust shot tendencies in the coach sliders if this doesn't work right, though I need to find my file from last year.

Rashidi said...

First play of game, Gallinari hesitation into a contested fadeaway. This needs to be addressed and could be a gameplay killer. I'll have to look at 2K10 and see what their jumper type tendencies were.

Gallinari has a high spot-up tendency, but that ain't no spot up.

Second play of the game, Gallinari drills an open triple. That's what we need to see more of.

Third play of game, Gallinari gives it to Mozgov in the post, gets fouled and goes to line.

Fourth play of game, Amare catches, makes some jab moves, pulls up for a mid-range jumper. No dribbles. He misses the shot, but it's the first quarter, and he's taken a shot!

Guess it's time to make another article with this game.